Cobra's Market View

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows equal distribution and accumulation, so no clear direction now.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

Due to shortened week so COT data delayed therefore no new smart money chart today. The latest chart still shows top.


Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

anyone expecting a top over the weekend and down on Monday?

Despite SPX near all time high, only 38% of the NYSE stocks are above MA200, this is ridiculous.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1870&p=207539#p207539

Sectors, week-to-date, % change
Best are retailers and smalls
Please post any retail numbers you find over the weekend (Black Friday stats)
Also: glance at the scooter rankings on oil and miners. That is also ridic ......

daytradingES wrote:winter scenes from Tyee lake (quiet Friday)

Very pretty! I miss the stillness and quietude that snow brings.

daytradingES wrote:anyone expecting a top over the weekend and down on Monday?

TRIN finished at 2.02, very bearish considering market was up.
Barring some event over the weekend, I don't see much that could move the market either way except this.

USD has been overbought for one+ month, and now approaches a potential double top on negative-divergent momentum.
I am awaiting a counter move: dollar down/commodities up, but I don’t see it yet.
And the inverseH&S on the USD tells that more up is possible here. GOLD and MINERS:
According to the latest NYSE Short Interest Report:
IAU shorts increased by 67% this period, and GDX shorts increased by 58% [folks added 19 million shares short GDX, for a total of about 73 million shares short], and the junior miners increased their shorts by 66%. Folks even added 1 million shares short on NUGT [for a total of about 4 million shares short] and that takes balls of steel, or tight stops, or both.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... tml#shortD

All of the above short info has contrarians salivating and awaiting a potential gold squeeze if the dollar would only cooperate.

vote snake: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Index Daily / Weekly candles . Weekly hammer, hanging man.. of sorts NDX/SPX/INDU/NYSE… a tad suspicious.. but RUT bullish. And TLT green for a 3rd week.

Industry % Weekly

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm Sideways price action caused a few of the weak indicators to push a tad stronger to the buy side by a smidge. Low holiday volume over the last two days.

2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels <200d Weekly <40d Daily.

Yields

Cobra wrote:Despite SPX near all time high, only 38% of the NYSE stocks are above MA200, this is ridiculous.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1870&p=207539#p207539

Why? Deep State monetary policy for its declining hegemony has other distorting spins. Market loves that kool-aid. Time to hit 3rd helpings. Vote Cobra. glta

Nov 29 ES Weekend Update: Keep It Simple Stupid Series The Monthly Rangebound Market


http://aapltechnicals.blogspot.ca/

Last’s week action was fairly straight forward as it was a snoozefest that consisted of a shakefest with the entire week’s range being only 32.75 points. It would have been a 20 point range week if it weren’t for Tuesday retest of the daily 20EMA that was sticksaved by bulls.

The key take away from the week was that bulls still managed to close above the 78.6% fib retracement and the weekly candle closed above 75% of the previous week. Remember, the goal for the weekly bulls was to hold above the half way point and continue higher.

What’s next?
...................

5 minute. Sidewinder.

Corporate defaults in emerging countries have hit their highest level since 2009 this year, and are already up 40% over last year, according to Standard & Poor’s.

For the first time in years, emerging-market companies are defaulting more often than their U.S. peers. The default rate on emerging-market corporate high-yield debt over the past 12 months has reached 3.8%, compared with 2.5% in the U.S., according to Barclays. Four years ago, the emerging-market default rate stood at 0.7%, well below 2.1% in the U.S.