12/02/2015 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Kiss breakout point goodbye?

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/12 ... ay-update/

[Unique]

ES: The bulls really need to keep sustaining the 1HR 20EMA bull train support.
Overnight price hit the blue channel resistance and turned down,
this could be just a price channel range market and not a full flown breakout trend day if so.

I'm being cautious here, waiting for the opening 15-30minutes for some more clarity.

[fehro]

SPX.. yeah I know.. broken record.. .. possible red channel resistance bottom right. ..fwiw. If we hold here. Mind yesterday's gap. 2081-2082. 20d 2080.55. Otherwise cyan, yellow trends to the upside.. top right. VIX in a possible bullish falling wedge.

[josephli]

USD strong, with GBP crushed (any one know why?). Euro wild ride.
10 yr treasuries dipped a little. The yield curve continue to flatten on far end.
overall bullish leaning.

[Out of Bounds]

Long 210.61. Though as I type this it looks bad, I think this will be the correct move today.

[daytradingES]

likely a push up towards 2107-2109.5 and then fail and back down into the range area.
Default range estimate are quite low and I increased it for H & L. (Low ests= Speed est range = 10.75
Estimated range = 11.25).
Range est change to 14.00
Once high is in subtract this 14 for low est

[Junior Buffett]

A crucial monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank this week could have a profound effect on the markets and particularly on the value of the euro. I believe it's tomorrow, Dec 3rd.

[josephli]

QQQ new high. GOOG and AMZN look strong.

[fehro]

SPX

[Al_Dente]

TODAY: Yellen speaks at the Economic Club of Washington “shortly after noon”
TOMORROW/THURSDAY: Yellen speaks to Congress' Joint Economic Committee, scheduled to begin at 10 a.m

[Al_Dente]

NYSE
Declining stocks are 1.8 x advancing stocks
Declining volume is 1.7 x advancing volume
Bear bias

[daytradingES]

7:07 AM 12/2/2015
Yellen, in back-to-back appearances, could close out era of zero rates
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen could cement the case for a U.S. interest rate hike ahead of the Fed's Dec. 15-16 policy meeting, with public appearances over the next two days at a high-profile economics group and before a joint committee of Congress.

When Yellen takes the stage at the Economic Club of Washington shortly after noon on Wednesday, she will do so with market
expectations already aligned behind a December hike, and the flow of economic data since the Fed's last meeting offering no clear reason to hold back.

The data has not all been great. Recent data on consumer spending and manufacturing have caused some analysts to pare back estimates of economic growth. Global trends that have weighed on the Fed's outlook for a year now also remain intact -
the high value of the dollar, the low and unsteady price of oil, and weak world growth.

But the U.S. jobs outlook continues to be strong. Economists in a recent Reuters poll expect Friday's monthly employment report from the Labor Department to show around 200,000 additional jobs were created in November, an outcome that would
support the Fed's first rate increase in nearly a decade.

Even some rate hike opponents like Chicago Fed president Charles Evans have shifted tone, focusing now on the need for rate increases to proceed only gradually rather than on battling a liftoff decision that seems nearly ordained.

"It is vital that when we first raise rates, the (Federal Open Market Committee)... strongly and effectively communicates its plan for a gradual path for future rate increases," said Evans. The CME Group's analysis of 30-day fed funds futures prices currently shows investors place the probability of an interest rate hike at nearly 80 percent when the Fed meets in two weeks. That in itself is a victory for Yellen. Heading into the October meeting investors were skeptical over whether the Fed would hike rates this year, and had criticized Yellen and the central bank for a series of communications missteps.

But the Fed's October statement quickly shifted expectations by pointing clearly at December, a process Yellen can complete in her Wednesday remarks on the economic outlook, which will be followed by a question and answer session with Economic
Club of Washington president and Carlyle Group co-chief executive David Rubinstein.

On Thursday, Yellen will discuss her outlook in a hearing before Congress' Joint Economic Committee, scheduled to begin at 10 a.m.


(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Wed, 02 Dec 2015 01:07:00 -0500
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Expectations are high that ECB chief Mario Draghi will do more to fix the low inflation problem

The signs could not be clearer: The European Central Bank is almost certainly going to boost its easing program on Thursday, in its continuing battle to fight off concerns about deflation in the eurozone.

Expectations of further economic stimulus from the hands of ECB President Mario Draghi & Co. have been high ever since the bank’s October meeting. But the disappointing 0.1% flash reading of November inflation out on Wednesday served to erase any doubts the big easing bazooka is going to get even bigger.

The print was below consensus estimates of 0.2% and remained far below the central bank’s target of below, but close to, 2%. What’s more, core inflation dropped to 0.9% from 1.1%, indicating that even with volatile energy, food, tobacco and alcohol stripped out, consumer prices aren’t keeping up with the central bank’s aims.
“In response to the outlook for lower core inflation, we expect the ECB to fulfill the high market expectations by delivering an aggressive package of easing measures tomorrow,” said Pernille Bomholdt Henneberg, senior analyst at Danske Bank, in a note after the inflation release.

(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein and Swetha Gopinath in SINGAPORE; Editing by David Goodman)
Tue, 01 Dec 2015 19:10:00 -0500
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Look's like choppy undecided til Yellen and maybe after as well.

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/12 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

NDX new yearly highs.. still short of the 2000's highs… COMPQ lags..

[fehro]

SPX a tad green, VIX green.. dabble short.. or add to yesterday's SPY P near end of day

[Tutti]

Question for traders who are old enough to remember Pre-Bernanke: did Greenspan or the fed chairmen before him have such a love affair with the press? I don't remember if Greenspan (sans his "...irrational exuberance..." speach) had so many appearances? I think that Bernanke wanted to be more transparent so he started meeting with the press more often, but I don't know if that is correct or not. Yellen and the other fed heads certainly seem to enjoy their time on CNBC/Bloomberg...

[Cobra]

small 3 push up, so could be 2 small legged pullback here.

[Unique]

ES: Very shakey so far, I see a possible retest to 2095-2093 support where I'm planning to long more

[fehro]

SPX hourly.. higher high, not a lower low yet.. but way way too early… possible outside reversal.. watching..