12/04/2015 Live Update

Daniel · Post by **Daniel** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:02 pm

Note the huge variance, extreme relative weakness in small caps today.

IWM well below the 15min 20ema.. SPY and QQQ still well above.

Trades with cats · Post by **Trades with cats** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:08 pm

Just for the record I have now seen two wave counts calling yesterdays low a C marking the end of wave 2. Wave 1 started with the Nov 10th low.Makes sense if we are doing 5 waves up for the Santa Rally. But in my opinion if this is a 3 up it needs some serious help!

Seems everyone clearly sees 2019 as a must hold level for the bulls so it has to be incorporated into the algo programming by now as a potential money making stop run and reverse.

Mr. BachNut · Post by **Mr. BachNut** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:09 pm

Mr. B here...

NYMO is saying its pick your poison time IMO.

I have NYMO in an up cycle (possible targets at blue circles), but I am not sure.

Things seem unclear to me. Mr. Market wants people to guess... again!
You will note that the latest NYMO high did not exceed the November 3rd high.
Also, while NYMO made a sequence of higher highs and higher lows prior to Wednesday, the lows were just little jiggles.
Jiggles are hard to trust. So, it could be argued that yesterday's NYMO low could be the first higher low of the sequence.

At the risk of over-analyzing, my read is as follows:
NYMO has to break Monday's high to confirm the up cycle and give it an edge.
If yesterday's NYMO low is broken, the entire up move from 11/13 may actually have only been corrective, and the NYMO down cycle that started Oct. 8 may still be in force!
You may recall (or not

) that my SPX 2016.50 benchmark of the October 8 NYMO down cycle was not tagged. So, I have kept it in the parking lot as possible unfinished business...
I have some possible downside targets marked as red circles that would clean up this scenario. We shall see.

I am flat equities at the moment. I had some downside targets from last weeks post get met but I did not trade them as I was focused on other business.
A corrective move of NYMO back up to the zero line would be normal here.
If we get that, I may take a crack at a short if I can structure a trade with good asymmetry to those downside targets.
Otherwise I'll be staying tuned for evidence that the up cycle is good to get long.

As usual, I have no idea what will happen.
I believe uempel has an ellipse signal hitting December 8. (Still the case eumpel?)
My trigger finger may be itchy around then if conditions line up.

josephli · Post by **josephli** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:13 pm

Daniel wrote:Note the huge variance, extreme relative weakness in small caps today.

IWM well below the 15min 20ema.. SPY and QQQ still well above.

yup, the internal look very weak for such a strong rally.

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:14 pm

Trades with cats wrote:Just for the record I have now seen two wave counts calling yesterdays low a C marking the end of wave 2. Wave 1 started with the Nov 10th low.Makes sense if we are doing 5 waves up for the Santa Rally. But in my opinion if this is a 3 up it needs some serious help!

Seems everyone clearly sees 2019 as a must hold level for the bulls so it has to be incorporated into the algo programming by now as a potential money making stop run and reverse.

fwiw.. my "predicition".. keep in mind the market doesn't care what I think.. as shown this am..

we drift down into next week… then up into OEW.. as most big players are gone near the holidays.. and retail bounces it between the yellow triangle during the holidays.. and we have a big move in Jan. .. and in the process screws up most Elliot wave counts

Daniel · Post by **Daniel** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:17 pm

imo, a close right here (or above) on SPY (208), and IWM (117), would render this week's central bank dramatics a mere gyration.. and provide the basis for a December higher low into yearend.

Below this crude line in sand, and the prevailing MA dynamics declare this a weak and downtrending market-- howsoever the favorable seasonality.

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:18 pm

Midd BB

josephli · Post by **josephli** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:20 pm

Trades with cats wrote:Just for the record I have now seen two wave counts calling yesterdays low a C marking the end of wave 2. Wave 1 started with the Nov 10th low.Makes sense if we are doing 5 waves up for the Santa Rally. But in my opinion if this is a 3 up it needs some serious help!

Seems everyone clearly sees 2019 as a must hold level for the bulls so it has to be incorporated into the algo programming by now as a potential money making stop run and reverse.

While i agree yesterday low was possibly swing low, the internals, momentum divergence and possible topping of leading stocks (megatech this case) coincide with past long term low high set up. but again, low high is probably most difficult to trade with anyway.

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:20 pm

possible minor H&S SPY 5m target 206.75… Bulls see a bigger invs H&S on SPX 5m..*HIGHER LOW holds.. need more coffee… long week

Trades with cats · Post by **Trades with cats** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:23 pm

It isn't the seasonality. It's the CFO's waiting to make their move. They are watching their Bloombergs getting phone calls from their guy at Goldman waiting to act with literally millions of cash and the clock is ticking on when ever the big boss'es bonus gets calculated.

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:24 pm

Advancing stocks are 1.4 x declining stocks
Advancing volume is 1.1 x declining volume
Bull bias slipped down into CHOP territory
5min
TICK keeps pounding down at the moment:

MrMiyagi · Post by **MrMiyagi** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:26 pm

FRAK/SHALE IS DEAD!!!

LONG LIVE OPEC OUR OVERLORD!!!

ALBERTA FOR SALE $1 AN ACRE!!

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:28 pm

/CL W/D/60m

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:30 pm

MrMiyagi wrote:FRAK/SHALE IS DEAD!!!

LONG LIVE OPEC OUR OVERLORD!!!

ALBERTA FOR SALE $1 AN ACRE!!

Saudis are going to cut production
No they’re not
Yes they are
No they’re not
You first

MrMiyagi · Post by **MrMiyagi** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:34 pm

Al_Dente wrote:
Saudis are going to cut production
No they’re not
Yes they are
No they’re not
You first

It's all a major Evil Plan; kill frak/shale, fill Canada with penniless muslims and bankrupt the country, then take over for the resources within 20 years when oil starts running out. Same in Europe.

This is exactly what happens in all the aliens coming to Earth movies, they plunder for resources and take over.

Am I the only one seeing it?

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:34 pm

bull flag

ALdaytrade · Post by **ALdaytrade** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:37 pm

MrMiyagi wrote:FRAK/SHALE IS DEAD!!!

LONG LIVE OPEC OUR OVERLORD!!!

ALBERTA FOR SALE $1 AN ACRE!!

Low prices to delay 'peak oil demand' past 2030, says BofA

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-d ... rhzfoyj.97

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:38 pm

Draghi, Dudley .. spike?.. speaking at 12:00pm ET… very pretty invs H&S SPX 5m..

MrMiyagi · Post by **MrMiyagi** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:38 pm

Can anyone tell me why fuel prices are still so high with Crude being at under $40?

Daniel · Post by **Daniel** » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:41 pm

qqq, spy HOD. IWM still well off.

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