01/01/2016 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows both distribution and accumulation are down so it's trending phase. It does count the Friday's down though, so the next week we might know if the distribution is more than the accumulation.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

[Cobra]

Smart money no huge buying so according to the case 2.) the pullback isn't over? The data is the last week's data though, because this week is a shortened week, so no COT data yet.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[MrMiyagi]

2016

[Al_Dente]

YEAR-TO-DATE
Sector and sub-sector performance, and “Scooters”

Compare to all the QQQ stocks weighted at more than 1% in the index
YEAR TO DATE performance
It’s old news that the mega-movers (and a few others) have been holding up the market.
As long as they hold up, or we see verifiable rotation into a new crop of “hotties,” then the market should continue to hold up.
NFLX has been showing recent signs of weakness but is already short-term oversold. If others amzn start breaking down, run for cover...

[Al_Dente]

10 Most Heavily Traded ETFs of 2015
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/10-most-h ... 5-cm559271

[brucekeller]

SHANGHAI - China stock investors are about to find out whether a budding equities recovery can cope with the end of a sales ban that's kept an estimated $185 billion of shares off the market.

All seven strategists and fund managers surveyed by Bloomberg say it can, with those respondents expecting regulators to allow major shareholders to sell their investments when a six-month ban imposed at the height of the stock crash expires Jan. 8.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns- ... story.html

[Al_Dente]

OIL and energy debt:
“S&P 500 Energy Corporate Bond Index” was down -8.61% as of 12/28.
“What is even more worrisome is the cost of buying default protection on debt of [Energy] issuers …has doubled during that time.
This indicates an increase in defaults is expected in this sector.
http://www.indexologyblog.com/2015/12/2 ... -5-months/

[fehro]

Candles, candles, and more candles… D/W/M/Y at tad weak.. that wax may have room to the downside for a longer time than most expect.
D/W/M not so bullish looking

[fehro]

Industry % Weekly + Yearly Indusrty/Sectors/Indexes

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm Rolling over again to the sell side.

[fehro]

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

[fehro]

Yields

[Trades with cats]

OIL and energy debt:
“S&P 500 Energy Corporate Bond Index” was down -8.61% as of 12/28.
“What is even more worrisome is the cost of buying default protection on debt of [Energy] issuers …has doubled during that time.
This indicates an increase in defaults is expected in this sector.
http://www.indexologyblog.com/2015/12/2 ... -5-months/

Pasta Boss, Thanks, now I know I am not talking black helicopters anymore! Not that I need personal validation but a real data point from a major source is like seeing a lighthouse when you are in a storm of crazy market values. I keep thinking of those famous quotes from P.T. Barnum and W.C. Fields every time I see yet another " the bottom is in for oil" headline.

For my long term income oriented portfolio I have been waiting for the next shoe to drop on oil as a trigger. I am hoping it brings tankers back to 12 month lows before world wide storage fills this spring ( according to Goldman IF we get a warmer than average month in Europe this winter). I am going to start looking around for some natural gas plays, pipelines and producers, that will benefit from the sea born exports starting next summer (assuming Cheniere gets the gas liquefaction train done befor they go broke) but will get unfairly hammered this winter because they are energy companies. I am thinking this could be an opportunity to buy and hold for a decade or more.

Short term it is really tempting to short Mr. Hamm's (he of the 1 billion divorce check who sold all his hedges) Continental and all the similar shale oil producers but that has got to be a really crowded trade so you know those who can manipulate prices will be using a squeeze in energy like a cash machine.

[fehro]

Crazy prediction for 2016 = egg on face ….. fwiw.

"IF" we cannot gain traction soon to the upside early this year, SPY 160ish (159.12) by Nov 8th - Election day.

Has nothing to do with moon phases.. just had this pattern set up on my moon chart. Mind the open gap if we verge into this region.. 153-153.50ish. Just something to keep in mind for 2016, mind the key levels for confirmation, failure. It sure does look pretty tho … maybe too pretty for the bears.

[nikman]

Hi Cobra,

When does the COT data become available for this past week? It will be interesting to see what happened on Thursday market closing when the market dropped big. Was the smart money buying (or covering)? I am curious because of your stance on the Thursday trading. In my observations, you are ALMOST always correct in thinking what is going on and the way the market behaved in the last 1 hour was a little unusual based on how you were leaning.

Thanks!

Smart money no huge buying so according to the case 2.) the pullback isn't over? The data is the last week's data though, because this week is a shortened week, so no COT data yet.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[BullBear52x]

Short term daily standard indicators are all point south.

Short term bears are back in charge.

Intraday, selling to continue.

[BullBear52x]

Fear + Distribution are high buyers beware. Peace!

[nikman]

Hi Fehro,
I would like to understand these charts and also would like to form the correct interpretations of the values they represent (meaning what does "rolling over to the sell side" mean here -- i.e., is it on an extreme end and so the rollover is imminent or it could be "few days" or "few weeks" (again the two may make a huge difference in one's decisions) away from rolling over. Could you provide some insight into all of this for someone who is new to it?

Thanks!

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm Rolling over again to the sell side.

[nikman]

Hi BB52x,

Not trying to be a bold contrarian, so won't be placing a buy yet... but with things so unilaterally slanted towards the negative/bearish side, I think the MM would most likely use this to their advantage on the first couple of days in 2016 to squeeze all the shorts first before reversing it to continue down later in January. Thoughts?

Fear + Distribution are high buyers beware. Peace!

[Al_Dente]

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