01/05/2016 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

Looks like I sold the low of the day. Nice!

You don't seem to trust your own system. How can you succeed?

[uempel]

Checking RSI 200 of daily SPX, relative strength is still above 50:

[DellGriffith]

Looks like I sold the low of the day. Nice!

You don't seem to trust your own system. How can you succeed?

Oh I trust.

Its just horrific luck. I mean the worst luck imaginable. The system has an incredible record but I buy all the losers.

[DellGriffith]

Because I'm leveraged I can't just sit there and watch a losing position either. If it goes wrong for several minutes I have to just take the loss. Its ok because because of the high win rate.

[DellGriffith]

I admit I was looking at the fact that price was at the open from yesterday and that it might bounce, but I could play that game all day all the way down to losing all the money too.

[Out of Bounds]

RUSSELL is very strong, just off HOD - could lead some bulls for other indices.

[daytradingES]

9:47 AM 1/5/2016 (@ Shm)

Using the bands

If I post that I am not confident in the est H/L then they become less "hard"

Estimates are always just that - estimates.

Think of them like the greens on a golf course (that you are guesing at before teeing off on a golf course you haven't played before). WHen you get close to the green put away your fareway clubs and take out a 9 iron and once on the green your putter.

Here is an example of getting to the edge of the green.
If you other indicators said that this is a low then you can go long.

You need to combine all factors.
1. higher low in o/n - as highlighted by Cobra in is 8:05am post "be careful bears" (read a tendancy for an up day , ie higher low and possibly higher high.
(Yest 1980.25 2009.50) (o/n 2017 1992.25)
so the low could be > 1992.25 and this low was 1999.
2. your own favorite indicators (MA, EMAs etc)
3. information on how the market has acted so far (choppy or strong direction etc)
4. your range est (range rule)

[Royal Flush]

I admit I was looking at the fact that price was at the open from yesterday and that it might bounce, but I could play that game all day all the way down to losing all the money too.

I agree, stop placement is part of any winning strategy. I always move my stop to BE (break even) ASAP. If I get stopped out so be it. I will review the trade and see if it could have been improved and then wait for the next setup.

[DellGriffith]

Done trading today. I got a sell signal 5-10 minutes ago.

[Al_Dente]

Box Theory has it that once price tests the lower (or upper) limits of the box, and fails, it usually proceeds to test the other side (in this case: the upper limit of the box). The rationale here is that the shorts were targeting much lower lows, and as they realize that the bottom of the box was a fail or trap (or double bottom), they cover ….
I imagine there will be plenty more stops above today’s high and above the 32.8% retracement level.
A “double dip” is always the risk.
SPY 60 min

[DellGriffith]

Man those signals actually captured that rise nicely. Just tight stop lost me the gains.

[fehro]

SPX/SPY 5 looking for 200.00ish

[brokebybernacke2]

SPX/SPY 5 looking for 200.00ish

198ish?

[Unique]

Weekly options portfolio:

-Exited all the weekly SPY 202 calls @ 1.25 breakeven.

Not a fan of the potential rangebound until tomorrow afternoon, getting out to escape the theta decay of today.
Another possible way is to tighten the original stop to $0.90 from $0.65 to let the trade ride, but don't think it's a good deal.

Unique2X

[fehro]

SPX/SPY 5 looking for 200.00ish

198ish?

200 goes, and yesterday's LOD.. then 196.50? top of gap from Oct

[Cobra]

triangle nowadays means reversal, so down?

[fehro]

SPX support/resistance hourly - bottom left

[Unique]

ES:
Triangle/range is getting tighter and tighter (lower highs and higher lows) as the morning back to back trades at resistance and support worked for both sides.
Looks like it's setting up for an afternoon triangle breakout or still needs more time to be resolved.

Past two hourly candles were top and bottom wick, which further proves today is just an inside day shakefest as expected.

[Al_Dente]

NYSE
Advancing stocks are 1.1 x declining stocks
Advancing volume is 0.66 x declining volume
Declining stocks are 0.89 x advancing stocks
Declining volume is 1.5 x advancing volume
CHOP
No bias, however bear volume is notable at the moment

[fehro]

W/D IBB about to crack.. look for a sharp drop.. fuel for more downside Index wise?