Cobra's Market View

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows distribution down and accumulation up, so it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

Smart money buying a lot so according to the case 2.), this is a good sign. I prefer it touching or at least near the green line above, looks like I was too greedy as the market already rebounded a lot.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Long-term World
Weekly
Downtrend channels, descending triangle, wedges
And all except Shanghai “hooked” up this week

Classic wedge setup during London session with a Trend Channel Line Over Shoot & Reversal @8:30 lead to today's rocket launch. I would love to have software that scanned the markets in real time for 3 push wedges (or other formations) with TCLs so that I could look for an OS and trade these setups exclusively! The market scanners which I am aware of are all only EOD daily versions. Does anyone know of a 5 min. intraday market pattern scanner?

I switched from a losing UVXY trade to long XIV in AH based mainly on the VIX MACD cross. I'm often wrong or bad timing so probably best to pay no heed..

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p= ... 6562563263

EOM
month-to-date, January

FWIW
FAANG
“Trailing” Price/Earnings Ratios:
FB 112x
AMZN 850x
aapl 10x
NFLX 328x
GOOG 31x

Daily/Weekly/Monthly Candles. Monthly look pretty ugly, but off support, under resistance. Über bear view.. this bounce could stall near here.. resistance on the monthly/weeklies. VIX weekly on possible support.

Weekly % Industry Indexes, quite the diversity in the leading vs the laggards. The most beat up industries climbed.

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm Several indicators swing to the buy side, as mentioned last week, they were trying. Question is does it stick.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

Yields

While doing my data collection for Friday I notice this.
I collect data for the swings of 6pts or more and had to look inside the one minute bar to see the order of H/L on the 15:00 minute.

Not sure if there was a meaning - other than taking out the last of the stops - but extremely rapid moves could portend a topping action.

Just a curious point.

daytradingES wrote:While doing my data collection for Friday I notice this.
I collect data for the swings of 6pts or more and had to look inside the one minute bar to see the order of H/L on the 15:00 minute.

Not sure if there was a meaning - other than taking out the last of the stops - but extremely rapid moves could portend a topping action.

Just a curious point.

Someone posted on this board last week that there was going to be an EOM rebalancing by portfolios. Since equities had declined in value during the month and bonds had gone up, the ETFs and various funds would be buying equities and selling bonds to get their portfolios rebalanced. All the stocks had huge volume spikes in the last minute

swayne99 wrote:Someone posted on this board last week that there was going to be an EOM rebalancing by portfolios. Since equities had declined in value during the month and bonds had gone up, the ETFs and various funds would be buying equities and selling bonds to get their portfolios rebalanced. All the stocks had huge volume spikes in the last minute

This did not refer to “””the ETFs and various funds”””.
It quite specifically referred ONLY to the “managed portfolios” [of uber-rich clients and institutions] that are under contract to maintain a fixed percentage in stocks/bonds (often 65/35 but it varies). In order to satisfy their contractual mandate, they must rebalance monthly or quarterly or ......, depending on their contracts.
Obviously many managers waited until the last day…

Goldman expected $14bn of equity buying through Friday. [That ended Friday at the close].
Morgan Stanley estimated the total assets under rebalancing covenants were approximately “… US$36 trillion that sits in global pension mandates…”

Just a couple of thoughts:


1. Usually the first leg bottom comes with a retest of some sort, such as in the shaded area. (this does not apply to second or third leg low or higher low).
2. Short term market is extreme OB, a pull back is expected soon, possibly monday morning session.
3. key consolidation area to watch. resistance 1940-ish, support 1920-ish then 1905-ish. if 1905 is gone then the friday break out is a fake.

Just be mindful that we might still be in dead cat bounce, be very careful with all your long.

You may want to post this question over at Slope of Hope ? TK is the founder of Prophet Charts, and there are many technically inclined traders there. Good luck.

Royal Flush wrote:Classic wedge setup during London session with a Trend Channel Line Over Shoot & Reversal @8:30 lead to today's rocket launch. I would love to have software that scanned the markets in real time for 3 push wedges (or other formations) with TCLs so that I could look for an OS and trade these setups exclusively! The market scanners which I am aware of are all only EOD daily versions. Does anyone know of a 5 min. intraday market pattern scanner?

ES 03-16 (5 Min) 1_29_2016.jpg

Found this riddle in David Tang's column in the FT a few weeks ago. The conundrum (which in my view is not a conundrum) shows that what we read or what we see confuses our logical thinking. We only find solutions if we push aside any preconceived (or printed) ideas and use our brain to analyse/solve a problem.

Looking at recent SPX action makes sense if we draw channels:

On a longer term I see bullish:

- a break up and back into the blue channel at 1975/85 is bullish until 2050/75
- a break out of the red channel to the upside above 2050/75 is very bullish

and bearish:

- a break south below the black channel (now at 1825) is bearish
- a break south below the red channel (below 1800) is very bearish

Summary:

- 2050 is key for a strong bullish move
- 1800 is key for a strong bearish move