02/03/2016 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Typical, I knew yesterday down huge, today would be huge gap up, probably up and up, I see way too many times in the past. Let's see if indeed today is up and up which if not then indeed this bull is no longer the past mad cow anymore.

[QED]

“… JPM is not the only one: moments ago famed technician Louise Yamada doubled down on the call, saying the primary trend for stocks is now lower as bear market unfolds; monthly momentum indicator still giving sell signal and declining; “rally may fade as fast as it appeared,” Bloomberg cites Louise Yamada's monthly note.

She adds: Bear market rallies ‘can last long enough to lull investors into a false sense of complacency.’ Avg. bear market lasts 17 months, suggesting this one will last until ~Oct. 2016 given market top was May 2015. Measured move target would suggest S&P 500 eventually dropping to ~1,600, DJIA to ~14,000

There is always one caveat... the biggest one: the Fed could adopt more stimulus such as negative interest rates, in which case ‘2016 will prove a challenging year and defensive positions are still warranted.’”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-0 ... oward-1950

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/02 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX opening at on/above 20d 1914. VIX 60m still in bullish falling wedge. Mind the morning gap

[daytradingES]

up and then down?

[uempel]

I've got two time signals on daily SPX. They both point to tomorrow Thursday. I hope I've drawn the fib cycle and the ellipses precisely

Fibonacci cycle on the daily

Ellipse time signals

[fehro]

SPX bulls see support, daily. Bears just a retest of break

[gappy]

Daily. Sell the rip.

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Vote Cobra. glta

[JFR]

Gap up on ES, NQ and YM.

[fehro]

SPX mind the 4 open gaps between 1870-1940 - 5m top left

[fehro]

DXY daily.. the chart I've been peddling for weeks.. breaking finally after retest, <20d<50d. 97.50 channel kinda from the summer lows.. near 200d next key level.

[fehro]

SPX 60m invs H&S still trying to hang in .. RS in or still needs more work..

[daytradingES]

late posting of o/n news
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6:45 AM 2/3/2016
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.26%) are up +0.20% as stock index futures track crude oil prices (CLH16 +1.84%) which are up +1.67%. European stocks are down -0.93% at a 1-1/2 week low as losses in Italian banks lead the market lower. The cost of insuring corporate debt in Europe rose as the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of credit-default swaps on investment-grade companies rose above 100 bp, the highest in 2-1/3 years, as the continued decline in energy and commodity prices is putting pressure on miners and energy producers along with the banks that have loaned to those companies. Asian stocks settled lower: Japan -3.15%, Hong Kong -2.34%, China -0.38%, Taiwan -0.84%, Australia -2.33%, Singapore -1.10%, South Korea -0.92%, India -1.29%. Losses in Chinese stocks were limited as property stocks rose after the PBOC cut the minimum required down payment for first-time purchases to the lowest ever in an attempt to prop up the property market.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.20%) is down -0.26%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.38%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.12%) are down -2 ticks.

According to people with direct knowledge of the matter, the PBOC plans to loosen rules on when foreign investors can bring money in and out of funds under the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor scheme (QFII), which grants quotas for money brought into China for investment in domestic stocks and bonds. The lock-up period for the withdrawal of QFII funds from China would be relaxed and institutions will be given more latitude over when they can bring money into China. Under the planned changes, QFII funds would be allowed to withdraw money from China on a daily basis. Currently, funds are subject to lock-ups of either 1 week of 1 month, depending on the type of quota.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +8.8% with purchase sub-index +4.6% and refi sub-index +11.2%), (2) Jan ADP employment change (expected +193,000, Dec +257,000), (3) final-Jan Markit services PMI (expected unrevised at 53.7, prelim-Jan -0.6 to 53.7), (4) Jan ISM non-manufacturing index (expected -0.7 to 55.1, Dec -0.8 to 55.8).

There are 31 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: GM (1.20), Marathon Petroleum (0.69), Merck (0.91), ADP (0.72), Southern Company (0.43), Allstate (1.34), Yum Brands (0.66), MetLife (1.36).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: PLx Pharma (PLXP).

Equity conferences this week include: Cowen and Company Aerospace/Defense Conference & Transport Forum on Wed-Thu


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Futures higher as oil shows glimmers of recovery
By Tanya Agrawal

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher on Wednesday as oil prices recovered slightly and investors awaited a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, including a report on job growth in the private sector.

* Oil prices pared some losses after Russia reiterated its openness to talking with OPEC about output cuts, which helped revive hope among investors that the world's largest producers could act to boost prices.

* Shares of oil majors Exxon (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) were up about 0.4 percent in premarket trading.

* Oil prices have fallen about 70 percent in the past 18 months, hit by a growing glut and cooling economic growth in China and other emerging markets.

* Falling oil prices, tepid U.S. growth and fears regarding a China-led global slowdown have been major factors for a torrid start to the year for stocks. The S&P 500 is already down 6.9 percent this year.

* Investors have also been keeping a keen eye on U.S. economic data for clues regarding the pace of future rate hikes by the Fed. Fed fund futures are pricing in only one hike this year, below the projection by the Fed's policy board members that rates could be increased four times.

* Payrolls processor ADP is likely to report that private employers added 195,000 jobs in January, lower than the 257,000 they added in December. The data is expected at 8:15 a.m. ET and comes ahead of the more comprehensive employment report by the U.S. government on Friday.

* At 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the ISM is expected to report that its non-manufacturing sector index slipped to 55.1 in January from 55.3 in December.

* Weak quarterly earnings by U.S. corporations are adding to worries. Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen 4.4 percent from a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters data.

* Big names scheduled to report on Wednesday includes Metlife (NYSE: MET), Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM), General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA).
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[JFR]

Gap fill on NQ. Not on ES and YM as of yet.

[josephli]

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list HERE. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.

• Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.

• Personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.

• Please no direct link to your personal web site or blog. You must post rich contents here. You can, however, put link to your personal web site or blog as your signature.

• I'm very busy during the trading hour, so your question posted on board might not be answered. For a guaranteed answer to your question please send email to info@cobrasmarketview.com.

========================================================================================================================================================================

Typical, I knew yesterday down huge, today would be huge gap up, probably up and up, I see way too many times in the past. Let's see if indeed today is up and up which if not then indeed this bull is no longer the past mad cow anymore.

SPY 1940 has profound implication. if broke that mean possible trend changes despite no retest of low of any kind. I think the likelyhood is low, unless there is major news from FED.

[JFR]

Gap fill on ES.

[josephli]

Crude inventory report @ 10:30. possibly going to decide the fate of day.

[JFR]

Gap fill on YM.

[fehro]

SPX fills morning gap… never a big fan, SPX green, VIX green this morning, until.. we just gap filled

[gappy]

Silver. Daily.

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