02/08/2016 Live Update

[DellGriffith]

Daily SPY:

No doubt this is wave C down. We managed to fall below the lower bb this morning on the daily (also in other timeframes). Looks pretty ugly. My current question is: will wave C end with a higher low, a double bottom, or lower low? All 3 are possible. The end of wave C is important because most corrections are ABC so its a great place for a long term buy.

few things to keep in mind, bear seems serious , so don't overstay longs.
-check out rut, % wise, other indices have room to fall..
-FED doesnt meet again until Mid march..assuming they don't step in early, bear could run until then, that could be unihibitied selling.
-anyone else not too comfy with volatility levels??? rsi and mac d got room to RUN

I'm terrified of being bearish in this current environment. Its incredibly hard to stay this bearish for this long without some kind of huge rally. One indicator warning of this is that we've gone 63 days now without hitting the upper bb on daily SPY. That's nuts. Second longest streak ever. No way do I short this market.

LOL the market has trained u well...your comment reveals the hint, what kind of market doesn't hit the upper BB for long time!!!

Well, I can safely say that investors were more bullish about the US economy in the dotcom crash of 2000 than they are now. I can say that because at least during the dotcom crash, there were occassional relief rallies that pushed prices into some decent overbought condiitons to the upper bb. The buying pressure is so weak now it can't even do THAT.

If this keeps up for another month, I can say investors were more bullish during the credit crisis of 2008!

[Mr. BachNut]

A follow-up to friday's post.

I think we may be approaching pick your poison time again.

Friday NYMO closed with a lower low indicating a down cycle.
I marked January 29 as the up cycle high with a benchmark at SPX 1940.24.
I also marked some downside targets, and alas, the first is being tagged as I write.
The January 20/October 2014 low is the next target and beyond that it's Wile Coyote open space below IMO.

Here's the rub.
For now, technically, this may be a retest of the January 20 low and the very import IMO October 2014 low.
Looking at the NYMO, we could end up tagging/breaking these lows with a pretty good looking positive divergence. Hmmm...
Cobra posted some signs of accumulation in the weekend thread. Hmmm...
Janet Yellen is on deck Wednesday morning at 10:30. Hmmm...
The dominant fundamental of this bull market has been central bank activism. We have had Draghi and Kuroda sing already and Mr. Market did not like the tune.
It's time for the Fat Lady to sing and the quality of her tune may be the decider on how things proceed. It could be sweet, or it could be the end of the show.

So, I am leaving my possible upside targets on the chart for now.
I even added a higher possible target as a successful test of these lows could turn into a double bottom.
Please don't read me as being bullish here. These are just possibilities.
I will tell you there is not room on the chart right now for my next down side targets if things unravel.
As usual, I haven't a clue what will happen But the stage is setting for something to happen.

I am flat.
On Friday, I tried some long after the European close. It turned into an exercise in leakage. So, I stopped.
With the NYMO turn on Friday and some other stuff, I had a signal to short.
Rather than put an order in after the super bowl, I figured I would wait until the morning. Ooops.
A great entry was missed. Gotta mark that an unforced error.
With my downside targets so close, the trade asymmetry is blown, and I won't short here. Particularly with Yellin on deck.
So, I'll be waiting for the next bus, whichever way it goes.

[uempel]

When riding the bull market buying any break of BB20/2 was a good strategy in 2014/15. But in March/August 2007 and in January 2008 the system was not convincing.

2015/16

2007/8

[brokebybernacke2]

Daily SPY:

No doubt this is wave C down. We managed to fall below the lower bb this morning on the daily (also in other timeframes). Looks pretty ugly. My current question is: will wave C end with a higher low, a double bottom, or lower low? All 3 are possible. The end of wave C is important because most corrections are ABC so its a great place for a long term buy.

few things to keep in mind, bear seems serious , so don't overstay longs.
-check out rut, % wise, other indices have room to fall..
-FED doesnt meet again until Mid march..assuming they don't step in early, bear could run until then, that could be unihibitied selling.
-anyone else not too comfy with volatility levels??? rsi and mac d got room to RUN

I'm terrified of being bearish in this current environment. Its incredibly hard to stay this bearish for this long without some kind of huge rally. One indicator warning of this is that we've gone 63 days now without hitting the upper bb on daily SPY. That's nuts. Second longest streak ever. No way do I short this market.

LOL the market has trained u well...your comment reveals the hint, what kind of market doesn't hit the upper BB for long time!!!

Well, I can safely say that investors were more bullish about the US economy in the dotcom crash of 2000 than they are now. I can say that because at least during the dotcom crash, there were occassional relief rallies that pushed prices into some decent overbought condiitons to the upper bb. The buying pressure is so weak now it can't even do THAT.

If this keeps up for another month, I can say investors were more bullish during the credit crisis of 2008!

and therein lies the RISK, good luck my friend....

[finman66]

SPY p-bar at $186.74 from Jan 22 has been taken out

Haven't checked Miyagi's spreadsheet to confirm but my own notes indicate only one remaining downside SPY p-bar at $180.50 from Jan 28
and one downside QQQ at $89.32 from August 24 of last year

[josephli]

USDJPY decisively break 116. not looking good for bull.

[K447]

USDJPY decisively break 116. not looking good for bull.

Effects of unwinding a crowded long US$ trade?

[hunterman]

Brone by B- my cycle analysis also points to the mid march timeframe for major move! Posted that over weekend and last week. Do believe we do not obviously go straight down til then n we will have bounces albeit weak in terms of end game.
Glta - current position all cash waiting for swing opportunity...

[josephli]

USDJPY decisively break 116. not looking good for bull.

Effects of unwinding a crowded long US$ trade?

seem likely the case while USD steady against other forex pair. USDJPY has been heavily sold off from last week, so going short is not that attractive as well. will wait and see.

[TraderJoe]

I sold my March SPY puts. I'll buy them back later.
Did well, it helps make up for some of my dumb trades..!

[Al_Dente]

I sold my March SPY puts. I'll buy them back later.
Did well, it helps make up for some of my dumb trades..!

Congrats

[jde77tex]

Cobra just curious if there was any further indications from the institutional buying/NASDAQ Hedgers data...?? I just get this ugly feeling that it will mimic the previous double bottom back in December for a short relief rally. Currently wishing I hadn't covered my shorts so soon this morning, but happy I didn't bite on CHK at $3.00 on Friday!!!!

[uempel]

Bullish Percentages very weak. But they have been giving conflicting signals lately and I'm not weighing them heavily at the moment.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPENER|B|0

[BullBear52x]

Selling is legit.

[BullBear52x]

We are here, analog view.

[Trades with cats]

BullBear, Thanks for the chart. I would add that the Kuroda Dudley bounce was a hick-up compared to the Bullard. Since the charts showing Fed balance sheet change with S&P change have made it clear what is driving this market I think we need a "Confidence in Central Bankers" chart

[Out of Bounds]

Long 183.66 - countertrend hunch

[BullBear52x]

BullBear, Thanks for the chart. I would add that the Kuroda Dudley bounce was a hick-up compared to the Bullard. Since the charts showing Fed balance sheet change with S&P change have made it clear what is driving this market I think we need a "Confidence in Central Bankers" chart

for bigger time frame as long as $xxHL are on the red, no confidence in the market to call for.

[brokebybernacke2]

Brone by B- my cycle analysis also points to the mid march timeframe for major move! Posted that over weekend and last week. Do believe we do not obviously go straight down til then n we will have bounces albeit weak in terms of end game.
Glta - current position all cash waiting for swing opportunity...

hunter
yes. it never goes straight down, , however, given the smoothness of this down move, we still have some major selling ahead in the next few weeks ... the bounces will be short lived in my opinion--- in bull market , err on the buy side, in bear, on sell. you should do well, after next bounce, that's when it could get fun....

[uempel]

Checking in on linear black SPX channel.