02/13/2016 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

No, Thank you for all the hard work and awesome analysis.
On the same lines, stocks < 30RS (high beta that I track) has not even touched the mark that they did in Oct of 2014, let alone reaching the mark touched in Aug 2015. Not really sure what to make of that other than the fact that this move down of nearly 30 handles (spy) has been extremely orderly (already known to everyone). What happens next is anybody's guess

Speaking orderly, really is strange this time, the buy programs keep buying so almost V reversals on every huge down day.

[josephli]

No, Thank you for all the hard work and awesome analysis.
On the same lines, stocks < 30RS (high beta that I track) has not even touched the mark that they did in Oct of 2014, let alone reaching the mark touched in Aug 2015. Not really sure what to make of that other than the fact that this move down of nearly 30 handles (spy) has been extremely orderly (already known to everyone). What happens next is anybody's guess

Spot on. the wild move on forex and treasury only translated to mild move on equities so far. something is out of sync.

[jason_70]

I am thinking the "conditioning" of BTFD has created this V shaped mentality where 11/2/230/3/330 are the times things move, has changed the way traders are playing. Everyone now knows this for fact and it is not a secret anymore. BUT, one day this will change and everyone will be caught with their pants down when V doesn't happen. This is a trap IMHO. Dunno though. This is a booming market for anyone who plays volatility.

[Al_Dente]

Can anyone explain this? Not implying bearish but certainly was not a strong Friday.

Funny thing about $NYHGH:
The histogram only shows CLOSING new 52-week highs.
If you overlay an HLC (high/low/close) bar on top of the $NYHGH histogram, you see that quite often highs are hit intraday, and then many fall off their highs before the CLOSE.
Example, Friday: there were 150 issues that INTRADAY hit new highs (intraday grey spikes); most fell off their highs so that only 32 CLOSED on a new high.
(ignore vertical lines)

[josephli]

No, Thank you for all the hard work and awesome analysis.
On the same lines, stocks < 30RS (high beta that I track) has not even touched the mark that they did in Oct of 2014, let alone reaching the mark touched in Aug 2015. Not really sure what to make of that other than the fact that this move down of nearly 30 handles (spy) has been extremely orderly (already known to everyone). What happens next is anybody's guess

Speaking orderly, really is strange this time, the buy programs keep buying so almost V reversals on every huge down day.

A lot of profit is in the gap. some major player use offshore trading entities instead of domestic one. sell overnight, cover in day session.

[Al_Dente]

FURTHER:
If you use the same HLC bars overlaid on the $NYLOW you will see that FRIDAY over 600+ stocks hit “New 52-Week Lows” INTRADAY, but many bounced so that by the time the NY CLOSED only 120 registered as New Lows on the closing histogram.
600+ New Lows is pretty sick by any measure, but not as bad as Thursday’s which hit about 700 new lows intraday and ALSO closed at about 700 new lows….. meaning that none bounced off their lows on Thursday before the close.
setting:

[BullBear52x]

Short term is missing HL to trend up properly, new LL from here will eliminate the bullish scenario, trend following 101, keep it simple.

[AndrasGy]

Long patterns


Daily

Weekly

Long term

[Trades with cats]

There was a lot of Coppock curve here a couple of weeks ago. Well Jim Stack up in Whitefish Montana (newsletter for long term investors) has a great take on Coppock Called Killer Wave up at Zero Hedge. The gist of it is that in the last 95 years only 8 bulls have had a double top in the Coppock.


Worth a read about one technicians success with a 50 year old indicator.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-1 ... rket-looms

[fehro]

USOIL 60m chart says some one is going to do something stupid in the middle east tomorrow/tonight invs H&S if it goes $33 oil. W/D/60m

[TraderJoe]

China's latest trade data is a very worrying sign for global growth;

The data showing the dramatic rebalancing of China’s economy continues.

Imports in January were down 14.4% year-on-year last month, versus a growth of 1.8% expected and a fall of just 4% year-on-year in 2015, in yuan-denominated terms.

Exports were also a big miss, falling 6.6% year-on-year, versus growth of 3.6% expected.

The weakness in the export side of the ledger suggests global growth, where the demand for China’s exports come from, may be weaker than currently thought.

[TraderJoe]

Japan economy shrinks more than expected, adds to fears of global slowdown

[TraderJoe]

[quote="josephli"]USDJPY recent down move has exceeded short term and swing term 100% MM, and is shy off key 110 support. more downward movement expected.
USD struggle on key fib and channel support. swing term 100%MM has been exceeded. bearish-leaning.


Your charts are to big..! My opinion..!

[MrMiyagi]

Japan economy shrinks more than expected, adds to fears of global slowdown

I was wondering why Nikkei was up 1150 points (7.77%).

[pezhead9000]

The bounce is on.

[hunterman]

Yes for now it is, was a little early in the Eafe index feb 9 th but small bounce Friday and today moonshot. I believe it will be better play percentage-wise so after seeing Europe Asia n Far East this morn so far so good!
Glta and appreciate charts analysis etc plan to ride this wave like Cali Opm this past big wave week

[josephli]

Japan economy shrinks more than expected, adds to fears of global slowdown

I was wondering why Nikkei was up 1150 points (7.77%).

guess they expect more central bank intervention as China & Japan data looks bad. plus last week nikei was down like 12%.

[josephli]

USDJPY recent down move has exceeded short term and swing term 100% MM, and is shy off key 110 support. more downward movement expected.
USD struggle on key fib and channel support. swing term 100%MM has been exceeded. bearish-leaning.

Your charts are to big..! My opinion..!

that seems to indeed depends on my screen resolution. sorry for that.

[TraderJoe]

China's Bad Loans Rise to Highest in a Decade as Economy Slows;

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... nomy-slows

[pezhead9000]

Rally Notes:
Pros:
- institutional selling/buying trends
- hedges rolling off
- block sales positive divergence
- SnP down-up volume positive divergence
- Interventionists jaw-boning

Cons:
- Not major accumulation
- Macro data (China/Japan)
- Bigger trend is down

Still hoping for S-T rally to ~1950 or greater.