uempel wrote:My view: the big players have enough strength to move the market. At the moment they want it higher. Many indicators show the pattern. How long will this last? This could go on for a few days, but in 2001 and 2008 these kind of rallies lasted many weeks. My info suggests this rally will cool down in the SPX 1920/1975 range (1975ish is the turning point if we take the rebound in 2001 as an analogue: SPX rallied gained 50 percent of the previous meltdown.)
uempel wrote:My view: the big players have enough strength to move the market. At the moment they want it higher. Many indicators show the pattern. How long will this last? This could go on for a few days, but in 2001 and 2008 these kind of rallies lasted many weeks. My info suggests this rally will cool down in the SPX 1920/1975 range (1975ish is the turning point if we take the rebound in 2001 as an analogue: SPX rallied gained 50 percent of the previous meltdown.)
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But this is not 2001 nor is it 2008.
ALdaytrade wrote:
uempel wrote:My view: the big players have enough strength to move the market. At the moment they want it higher. Many indicators show the pattern. How long will this last? This could go on for a few days, but in 2001 and 2008 these kind of rallies lasted many weeks. My info suggests this rally will cool down in the SPX 1920/1975 range (1975ish is the turning point if we take the rebound in 2001 as an analogue: SPX rallied gained 50 percent of the previous meltdown.)
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But this is not 2001 nor is it 2008.
No, it's 2016. And the big boys who dominate the market have fed an algo into their computers. Most likely it's something very simple, e.g. 2001 or 2008.
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In 2001 and 2008 the market rebounded after Coppock sell signals - in 2001 by 50% and in 2008 by 57%. I'm looking at the 2001 pattern here. The market rebounded after the second low and gained 50% of what it had lost in previous months, the rally went on for seven weeks.
My belief: unless something really ugly happens in the next few days/weeks (think any kind of Black Swan) the market will most likely follow a similar path
2001, market behaviour after Coppock sell signal
2014/16, analogue of 2001 after Coppock sell signal
Last edited by uempel on Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.