Cobra's Market View

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more accumulation than distribution, accumulation is up while distribution is down, so it's bottoming phase. Since more accumulation than distribution so it's the most bullish phase of the bottoming phase, not bad.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

Smart money keeps buying so pointing to a bottom. The chart really is yelling a bottom.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Weekly / Daily candles Weeklies looking bullish leaning after last week's hammers. A couple curious weeklies.. DXY - USdollar under 50w SMA /200d with a doji, and TLT with a hammer weekly off support from summer highs. NDX/COMPX hold 20d at LOD,

Industry % weeklies. SPY volume today curiously light for OEW? 114.8 million? 2nd lightest vol day of the year??

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
As per last week trying to turn to the buy side, a few have, and New Hi/Lo's took a hit over the last 2 days of sideways, back to sell.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

Yields

week-to-date

“At this point in time, 87% of the companies in the index have reported actual results for the fourth quarter. So, did companies in the S&P 500 with more global exposure report weaker sales and earnings growth relative to companies in the S&P 500 with less global exposure?
The answer is yes.”
http://www.factset.com/insight/2016/02/ ... seI2fkrKM8

Will lighten up by end of next week..worst days to buy hold...history

Current assumption on market. market break 1950=ish to confirm bottom is in, otherwise i remain doubtful. that said, short term pattern very bullish. Monday is key for bear. bear will at least keep spy at bay @189-ish, otherwise it will be hard to defend the critical 194. other scenarios are mostly bullish. market always surprises me, so maybe down on monday?
some not so bullish pattern on USDJPY and DXY. sell off likely not done.

josephli wrote:Current assumption on market. market break 1950=ish to confirm bottom is in, otherwise i remain doubtful. that said, short term pattern very bullish. Monday is key for bear. bear will at least keep spy at bay @189-ish, otherwise it will be hard to defend the critical 194. other scenarios are mostly bullish. market always surprises me, so maybe down on monday?

Yes 194.50 key level for the bulls… SPY 30m - smack in the middle between two juicy open gaps.. can't beat it gap it . Bulls yellow "W" bottom, goes target 208. Bears pink descending, "ending" wedge. C holds then D, if D fails then lower channel, D holds the E then 169. SPX lower chart messy triangle for sideways chop May.

Big dates coming up : Here is a summary of the near-term events which stocks are betting on do not disappoint: G20 Shanghai (February 26-27); ECB (March 10), BoJ (March 15) & FOMC (March 16).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-2 ... n-imminent

….In other words, Hartnett expects a "Shanghai Accord" to be unveiled next weekend, one where like the Plaza Accord three decades earlier, the Yuan will be massively depreciated, which ironically would halt all piecemeal Yuan devaluation on expectation of future devaluation (as it will have already happened), and reset global monetary policy stability if only for a few more months….

fehro wrote:
….In other words, Hartnett expects a "Shanghai Accord" to be unveiled next weekend, one where like the Plaza Accord three decades earlier, the Yuan will be massively depreciated, which ironically would halt all piecemeal Yuan devaluation on expectation of future devaluation (as it will have already happened), and reset global monetary policy stability if only for a few more months….

with regards to this, I think the likelihood for a china version of plaza accord is zero. plaza accord has been considered by the chinese as primary reason why japan's economy lost steam suddenly in the 90s. no way the chinese government will get into such thing without facing high domestic political pressure.
And not to mention that G20 is a large group with very diverse interest and target. the impact of their past accord was not far-reaching.

possibly a roller coaster market next week then: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ussia-says

brokebybernacke2 wrote:Will lighten up by end of next week..worst days to buy hold...history

Don't quite know how they compare February 29th with days which are four times more frequent

Bulkowski:

Today posting on this forum is back to normal, let see next weeK. it's traffics or Bot at security check point?

I found the problem with this site, shockwave plugin conflict. any other sites are fine. it runs the smoothest with Adobe enable but disable all the rest of third party. if I do that Stockcharts.com doesn't like that so I can not edit my chart on Chrome or Explorer only Firefox. this is a little messy but at least I know what's up.

Basic character of a bear market, is Confusion. At many junctures it would feel like the world will end tomorrow while at the very minute it would feel like we will get face ripping rally. The fundamental aspect is to confuse both bears and bulls.
Needless to say we are currently in the exact same situation. So many charts (not even indicators) scream of a crash, while the same charts also say we are so oversold we will get like 200 points rally on the SP.
Which way it will go is anybodys guess