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03/01/2016 Live Update
Re: 03/01/2016 Live Update
Moody's cuts China outlook to 'negative' - cites reform, fiscal risks**************
Moody's downgraded its outlook on Chinese government debt to "negative" from "stable" on Wednesday, citing uncertainty over authorities' capacity to implement economic reforms, rising government debt and falling reserves.
"Without credible and efficient reforms, China's GDP growth would slow more markedly as a high debt burden dampens business investment and demographics turn increasingly unfavorable. Government debt would increase more sharply than we currently expect," Moody's said in a note on Wednesday.
Moody's said its rating committee had discussed China's status at a meeting on Feb. 9, during which the country's institutional and fiscal strength, as well as its susceptibility to event risks, were reviewed.
The agency said the downgrade was driven by expectations that China's fiscal strength will continue to decline, and the fall in its foreign exchange reserves which have shrunk by $762 billion over the last 18 months.
More here: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-moody ... SKCN0W407W
Moody's downgraded its outlook on Chinese government debt to "negative" from "stable" on Wednesday, citing uncertainty over authorities' capacity to implement economic reforms, rising government debt and falling reserves.
"Without credible and efficient reforms, China's GDP growth would slow more markedly as a high debt burden dampens business investment and demographics turn increasingly unfavorable. Government debt would increase more sharply than we currently expect," Moody's said in a note on Wednesday.
Moody's said its rating committee had discussed China's status at a meeting on Feb. 9, during which the country's institutional and fiscal strength, as well as its susceptibility to event risks, were reviewed.
The agency said the downgrade was driven by expectations that China's fiscal strength will continue to decline, and the fall in its foreign exchange reserves which have shrunk by $762 billion over the last 18 months.
More here: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-moody ... SKCN0W407W
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Re: 03/01/2016 Live Update
6:41 AM 3/2/2016
Were you wondering what Alan Greenspan thinks about the outlook for monetary policy across the globe?
Neither were we, but Bloomberg was...
Why? Because business people are very uncertain about the future.”
Well yes, they most certainly are. Of course were it not for “the Greenspan put” and decades of policy largesse we might not have ever had a financial crisis in the first place (David Stockman will tell you all about Greenspan’s role in creating the conditions we now find ourselves in).
...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-0 ... rk-warning
-----------------------------------\
more pump-and-dump rumour milling ahead of API:
"After more than a year of failing to agree any steps, OPEC and outside producers have stepped up diplomatic activity to fix the supply glut. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Venezuela and non-OPEC producer Russia said on Feb. 16 they would freeze output.
The four countries have agreed to meet again in mid-March, Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino said last week. "
[notice that the reporters have changed freeze INCREASES in ouput to "freeze output" .. last time the "agreement" was subject to Iran agreeing. That is a bit like Harper agreeing to stop doing anything the Americans tell him to do (when the planetarty distructionist was in dictatorship) if the moon turns to blue cheese.]
The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude stocks grew by 9.9 million barrels last week. That was much higher than the 2.6 million-barrel expansion estimated by analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey ahead of the official data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday.
----19:30 - The idea that Iraq/Iran will cooperate with Saudi Arabia is laughable------
VERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.14%) are down -0.28% as they follow crude oil prices lower, although European stocks are up +0.39% at a 1-month high as miners and commodity producers rallied and led the overall market higher after the price of copper jumped to a 3-1/2 month high. Crude oil is down -1.95% after data late yesterday from API showed U.S. crude inventories surged +9.9 million bbl last week. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +4.11%, Hong Kong +3.07%, China +4.26%, Taiwan +0.69%, Australia +2.01%, Singapore +1.66%, South Korea +1.70%, India +1.95%. Chinese stocks rallied on speculation the government will announce measures to boost growth at legislative meetings that begin Saturday. China's National People's Congress will begin a 2-week meeting starting March 5 where delegates will sign off on a new 5-year economic plan. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 3-week high as exporter stocks rallied after the yen fell to a 2-week low against eh dollar, which improves earnings prospects of exporters
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.12%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.32% at a 2-week high.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.12%) are down -4 ticks at a 4-week low on hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said the U.S. economy is set to "power ahead." which increases the chance of a Fed rate hike at the Mar 15-16 FOMC meeting.
In a telephone interview with the Financial Times, San Francisco Fed President Williams said "he doesn't see any signs in the data of any slackening of domestic demand" and that the U.S. economy is set to "power ahead" and push inflation back to target as positive U.S. domestic demand outweighs weakness from abroad.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -4.3% with purchase sub-index +2.2% and refi sub-index -7.7%), (2) Feb ADP employment change (expected +188,000, Jan +205,000), (3) Feb New York ISM (Jan -7.4 to 54.6), (4) San Francisco Fed President John Williams' speech at the Bishop Ranch Forum in San Ramon, CA, and (5) Fed Beige Book.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.14%) this morning are down -5.50 points (-0.28%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +2.39%, Dow Jones +2.11%, Nasdaq +3.15%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday rose to a 1-3/4 month high and closed sharply higher on the strong U.S. economic reports, which included the +1.3 point increase in the U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing index to 49.5 (stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 48.5) and the +1.5% jump in U.S Jan construction spending (stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the largest increase in 8 months). Stocks were undercut by the -0.4 point decline in the China Feb manufacturing PMI to 49.0, weaker than expectations of unch at 49.4 and matched Nov 2011 as the steepest pace of contraction in 7 years.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 -0.12%) this morning are down -4 ticks at a 4-week low. Tuesday's closes: TYM6 -29.50, FVM6 -16.00. Jun T-notes on Tuesday sold off to a 3-week low and closed lower on strength in the U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks, and an increase in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate climbed to a 1-1/2 month high.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) this morning is up +0.101 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0013 (-0.12%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.36 (+0.32%) at a 2-week high. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.141 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.00051 (-0.05%), USD/JPY +1.32 (+1.17%). The dollar index on Tuesday rose to a 4-week high and settled higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, which may accelerate a Fed rate hike. In addition, EUR/USD slumped to a 1-month low on expectations for the ECB to expand stimulus at next week's policy meeting.
Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 -1.37%) this morning is down -67 cents (-1.95%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 +0.61%) is up +0.0007 (+0.05%). Tuesday's closes: CLJ6 +0.65 (+1.93%), RBJ6 -0.0202 (-1.53%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed. Metals prices were boosted by the rally in global stocks and the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, which were positive for energy demand. Metals prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 4-week high and by expectations for U.S. crude supplies to increase by +2.75 million bbl in Wednesday's EIA inventory report.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/02/2016
US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.3% with purchase sub-index +2.2% and refi sub-index -7.7%.
0815 ET Feb ADP employment change expected +188,000, Jan +205,000.
0945 ET Feb New York ISM, Jan -7.4 to 54.6.
1000 ET San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at the Bishop Ranch Forum in San Ramon, CA.
1030 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1400 ET Fed Beige Book.
UK 0430 ET UK Feb Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected +0.5 to 55.5, Jan 55.0.
EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Jan PPI expected -1.0% m/m and -2.9% y/y, Dec -0.8% m/m and -3.0% y/y.
CHI 2045 ET China Feb Caixin composite PMI, Jan +0.7 to 50.1.
Were you wondering what Alan Greenspan thinks about the outlook for monetary policy across the globe?
Neither were we, but Bloomberg was...
Why? Because business people are very uncertain about the future.”
Well yes, they most certainly are. Of course were it not for “the Greenspan put” and decades of policy largesse we might not have ever had a financial crisis in the first place (David Stockman will tell you all about Greenspan’s role in creating the conditions we now find ourselves in).
...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-0 ... rk-warning
-----------------------------------\
more pump-and-dump rumour milling ahead of API:
"After more than a year of failing to agree any steps, OPEC and outside producers have stepped up diplomatic activity to fix the supply glut. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Venezuela and non-OPEC producer Russia said on Feb. 16 they would freeze output.
The four countries have agreed to meet again in mid-March, Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino said last week. "
[notice that the reporters have changed freeze INCREASES in ouput to "freeze output" .. last time the "agreement" was subject to Iran agreeing. That is a bit like Harper agreeing to stop doing anything the Americans tell him to do (when the planetarty distructionist was in dictatorship) if the moon turns to blue cheese.]
The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude stocks grew by 9.9 million barrels last week. That was much higher than the 2.6 million-barrel expansion estimated by analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey ahead of the official data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday.
----19:30 - The idea that Iraq/Iran will cooperate with Saudi Arabia is laughable------
VERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.14%) are down -0.28% as they follow crude oil prices lower, although European stocks are up +0.39% at a 1-month high as miners and commodity producers rallied and led the overall market higher after the price of copper jumped to a 3-1/2 month high. Crude oil is down -1.95% after data late yesterday from API showed U.S. crude inventories surged +9.9 million bbl last week. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +4.11%, Hong Kong +3.07%, China +4.26%, Taiwan +0.69%, Australia +2.01%, Singapore +1.66%, South Korea +1.70%, India +1.95%. Chinese stocks rallied on speculation the government will announce measures to boost growth at legislative meetings that begin Saturday. China's National People's Congress will begin a 2-week meeting starting March 5 where delegates will sign off on a new 5-year economic plan. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 3-week high as exporter stocks rallied after the yen fell to a 2-week low against eh dollar, which improves earnings prospects of exporters
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.12%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.32% at a 2-week high.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.12%) are down -4 ticks at a 4-week low on hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said the U.S. economy is set to "power ahead." which increases the chance of a Fed rate hike at the Mar 15-16 FOMC meeting.
In a telephone interview with the Financial Times, San Francisco Fed President Williams said "he doesn't see any signs in the data of any slackening of domestic demand" and that the U.S. economy is set to "power ahead" and push inflation back to target as positive U.S. domestic demand outweighs weakness from abroad.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -4.3% with purchase sub-index +2.2% and refi sub-index -7.7%), (2) Feb ADP employment change (expected +188,000, Jan +205,000), (3) Feb New York ISM (Jan -7.4 to 54.6), (4) San Francisco Fed President John Williams' speech at the Bishop Ranch Forum in San Ramon, CA, and (5) Fed Beige Book.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -0.14%) this morning are down -5.50 points (-0.28%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +2.39%, Dow Jones +2.11%, Nasdaq +3.15%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday rose to a 1-3/4 month high and closed sharply higher on the strong U.S. economic reports, which included the +1.3 point increase in the U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing index to 49.5 (stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 48.5) and the +1.5% jump in U.S Jan construction spending (stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the largest increase in 8 months). Stocks were undercut by the -0.4 point decline in the China Feb manufacturing PMI to 49.0, weaker than expectations of unch at 49.4 and matched Nov 2011 as the steepest pace of contraction in 7 years.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 -0.12%) this morning are down -4 ticks at a 4-week low. Tuesday's closes: TYM6 -29.50, FVM6 -16.00. Jun T-notes on Tuesday sold off to a 3-week low and closed lower on strength in the U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks, and an increase in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate climbed to a 1-1/2 month high.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) this morning is up +0.101 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0013 (-0.12%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.36 (+0.32%) at a 2-week high. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.141 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.00051 (-0.05%), USD/JPY +1.32 (+1.17%). The dollar index on Tuesday rose to a 4-week high and settled higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, which may accelerate a Fed rate hike. In addition, EUR/USD slumped to a 1-month low on expectations for the ECB to expand stimulus at next week's policy meeting.
Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 -1.37%) this morning is down -67 cents (-1.95%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 +0.61%) is up +0.0007 (+0.05%). Tuesday's closes: CLJ6 +0.65 (+1.93%), RBJ6 -0.0202 (-1.53%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed. Metals prices were boosted by the rally in global stocks and the stronger-than-expected U.S. Feb ISM manufacturing and Jan construction spending reports, which were positive for energy demand. Metals prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 4-week high and by expectations for U.S. crude supplies to increase by +2.75 million bbl in Wednesday's EIA inventory report.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/02/2016
US 0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.3% with purchase sub-index +2.2% and refi sub-index -7.7%.
0815 ET Feb ADP employment change expected +188,000, Jan +205,000.
0945 ET Feb New York ISM, Jan -7.4 to 54.6.
1000 ET San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at the Bishop Ranch Forum in San Ramon, CA.
1030 ET EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1400 ET Fed Beige Book.
UK 0430 ET UK Feb Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected +0.5 to 55.5, Jan 55.0.
EUR 0500 ET Eurozone Jan PPI expected -1.0% m/m and -2.9% y/y, Dec -0.8% m/m and -3.0% y/y.
CHI 2045 ET China Feb Caixin composite PMI, Jan +0.7 to 50.1.
Educational only and not trading advice (EO&NTA) 
Good trading to all
Good trading to all