03/12/2016 Weekend Update

[fehro]

Yields

[pezhead9000]

McClellan Summation Index - positive trend

[fehro]

SPX / VIX .. possibly a few ways to look at the patterns. SPX at near channel resistance.. in one case, but still bearish wedging up in another between a larger down channel.. VIX 60m..possible yellow triangle, orange bullish falling wedge, and invs H&S.. all based on holding in / near this range.

[fehro]

/CL - USOIL - hitting the multi month downtrend, and 20yr channel.. 38.85 - well a dime short ... and diamond bottom target.. download/file.php?id=93655&mode=view red wedge never broke..on the 60m… was touch and go last week.. download/file.php?id=94166&mode=view bulls too strong.. and broke up. Now big question does the confluence of resistance hold? .. we pull back and RS and zoom up - target $50 oil. USDollar may need to play along.. next post.

[fehro]

DXY M/W & Daily Crazy talk - look for explosive move in commodities.. "IF" there's continued weakness / aka "1998" event. fwiw.

[daytradingES]

My opinion, which isn't worth much, is partially formed by a strong personal bias. That bias formed when I worked at a Savings and Loan during that crisis, and then was reinforced when two fortune 500 companies in the town where I live failed. They are both still operating, but under different ownership. In all three cases the company was systematically looted by the president. It was perfectly legal but lead to bankruptcy. I see this as a behavior that has become wide spread in publicly traded companies where the founder(s) are long gone and so called professional managers are in charge. I say that because of the current mania to take on long term debt for share by backs. The purpose of the buy backs seems to be to hide operating results from those who watch CNBC and make sure the CEO makes bonus while covering over the stock dilution caused by the issuance of bonus shares. At this time the data is clear, for the first 6 weeks of the year this, and short covering, was the only significant source of buying. Everybody else is getting out.

My theory is that just like the last two earnings seasons they have been buying back to adjust the earnings per share. When this ends 30 days before earnings are released the market starts dropping. When the positive non-GAAP numbers are released everything is fine and they can go back to the junk bond market for more debt. Rinse and repeat.As the market slowly unwinds and the junk bond market gets more and more concerned we will reach a tipping point. Goldman thinks this is the last good quarter, we will know in another 4 months.

Interesting stuff Twc

I appreciate your insights

[daytradingES]

On the subject of exec and bonuses I was thinking of Merissa Myers and Yahoo.
($100million comes to mind - her signing bonus?)

So here's the thought:
Assume that merissa went short Yahoo with alll the money she has rec'd from Yahoo
signing bonus, salary and bonus etc over her entire stay at Yahoo 5yrs??
So every time she recd any cheque from Yahoo she short as much stock as that cheque was - including margin.

1. How much money would that be?
2. if we add in her golden parachute to that amount what would the total be?

[Al_Dente]

“Buybacks soar to new heights”
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000500389

[josephli]

“Buybacks soar to new heights”
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000500389

it looks so. goldman probably has been using that money to corner the market.

[fehro]

for the bullish inclined

The extra 22 Billion in USD terms is going to find its way to US based Risk Assets via carry trades from European stimulus Measures. 2060 is the next upside target for the S&P 500 Index, we will have pullbacks and retracements along the way, but we should be considerably higher over the next 6 weeks in Risk On Assets like equities. I anticipate ultimately putting in a new high sometime over the next 6 months conservatively in the S&P 500, i.e., think in terms of the 2150 area, with a more aggressive upside target of the nice round number of 2200 in the Election Year.

Don`t focus on Energy company earnings as they are going to be awful, keep in mind money has to be stored somewhere, and now an extra $22 Billion a Month needs to find a home in financial markets….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-1 ... ndex-video

[fehro]

NDX/COMPQ daily / weekly + AAPL, GOOGL, FB, AMZN, INTC .. etc, etc. Dailies looking not bad key resistance very close NDX/COMPQ 200d/50w. Weeklies.. a collection of possible diamonds/ diamond tops, bearish rising wedges, H&S, etc ? fwiw.

[josephli]

for the bullish inclined

The extra 22 Billion in USD terms is going to find its way to US based Risk Assets via carry trades from European stimulus Measures. 2060 is the next upside target for the S&P 500 Index, we will have pullbacks and retracements along the way, but we should be considerably higher over the next 6 weeks in Risk On Assets like equities. I anticipate ultimately putting in a new high sometime over the next 6 months conservatively in the S&P 500, i.e., think in terms of the 2150 area, with a more aggressive upside target of the nice round number of 2200 in the Election Year.

Don`t focus on Energy company earnings as they are going to be awful, keep in mind money has to be stored somewhere, and now an extra $22 Billion a Month needs to find a home in financial markets….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-1 ... ndex-video

The underlying assumption here will be fed keeping rate unchanged. If market does keep up then fed may still raise 3 to 4 times this year. It is possible the net effect still removal of liquidity from market.

Still sounds like roller coaster mode is on.

Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk

[fehro]

SPY 30m rising wedge break.. Monday up to 204.38 / wedge retest, gap fill from Dec31/Jan2 .. then stall measured move.. SPY 190.00.. for Friday OEW/ next Monday? - yeah crazy talk.

[daytradingES]

For mulitday traders?

http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story ... ch-14-2016

[daytradingES]

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) meets in Tokyo on Tuesday, March 15th to discuss monetary policy. Expectations may be for additional stimulus at this meeting. The US Fed may be taking cues from the ECB and BOJ policy meetings as the US Dollar may be affected by the policies of the other nations. The US Fed is to meeting on March 16th to discuss monetary policy. It is not thought that they would take action at this meeting, but June is definitely a consideration. The US Dollar may be propelled higher by the other nations stimulus where any further strengthening may create a backfiring in all the work of the Fed to date. This week, Super Mario, delivered with a package of stimulus cutting the bank’s key lending rate to 0.00 % from 0.05 %. He lowered the deposit rate to -0.4 % from -0.3 %. Further there was an expansion of the monthly bond purchases to 80 billion euros. The main refinancing rate was decreased to zero. The ECB would essentially pay banks to take loans thru the TLTRO’s or targeted longer-term refinancing operations. The elation was there for the big package that was overwhelming. Later at a news conference, ECB President Draghi disclosed that he does not see a need to cut rates further thus deflating the sentiment. This was the damper on the stimulus thus taking it back to underwhelming

http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story ... -decisions

[daytradingES]

So they are paying banks to take loans.
Doesn't this just say it all?

For as long as the capital system has been in place there was the concepts of:
1. Capital is a scarce resource. Free markets will allocate capital efficiently. Inefficient businesses would not receive funding and would wither.
2. Capital is a valuable resource. People are paid to save (accumulate capital) which would produce a return when applied to a business or investment.
3. Capital + innovation + people ==> the mix for productive efficient businesses.

So now those in retirement with savings for their retirement can no longer purchase GICs and receive income for retirement from their savings (capital). Zero and negative rates are a way to steal from those in retirement.

and others

[daytradingES]

Do other people have a huge gap to be filled in the SPY chart?
204.91 to 201.90?

[daytradingES]

here is something from ZH
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-1 ... rampant-he

"This follows our extended discussion of record storage not only in Cushing but PADD2 in general, as well as PADD3 and now, PADD1: it is now only a matter of time before US storage is "operationally full" and no more oil can be accepted for storage leading to a dramatic plunge in its price."

as TwC says, soon they'll be using swimming pools.

[pezhead9000]

here is something from ZH
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-1 ... rampant-he

"This follows our extended discussion of record storage not only in Cushing but PADD2 in general, as well as PADD3 and now, PADD1: it is now only a matter of time before US storage is "operationally full" and no more oil can be accepted for storage leading to a dramatic plunge in its price."

as TwC says, soon they'll be using swimming pools.

Oil Hot Tub...