Cobra's Market View

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more accumulation than distribution, accumulation is down while distribution is up, so it's in topping phase. Please note topping phase doesn't mean top, it may take considerable of times so it's not a bearish signal.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

Smart money not selling hard so it's not condition 1.) yet, should be more up ahead.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

summary of the week's stock picks. week up a lot, cannot believe my picks had not much breakout?!
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1986&p=219391#p219391

Week-to-date

The stock picks for the next week:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1994&p=219394#p219394

WSJ TSM Block Money Flow from 2010 - dramatic block money flowing in since end of January.
Given the macro view - was not expecting this. Looks similar to end of summer 2011.


http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... yflow.html

SnP500 Composite TICK and Up-Down volume trends

Weekly & Daily Monthly Candles.. plus bonus quartiles of Thursday's close.
Quarterlies 5-6 Q and we are still at the same place NYSE same levels as 2006/2007. bull market? Anyhow monthly and weekly into overhead supply ( 15 months worth ) and horizontal resistance .
*Monthly March candles.. one candle back.

Industry % Weeklies.. as seen in the above charts.. indexes and oil seem to be decoupling..

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

CPC Put/Call getting a tad active.. and into the upper levels 1.25 for the contrarian trade. Divergence on T2106 MCClellan Oscillator.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

Yields

Yields v2.0

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D

From it is what it is department:

$BPSPX, waverider special: Not very exciting here.

It seems that for the long term the trend may have changed. we might be in similar scenario of 94-95 or 2010. really did not see that coming. Of course, there is possibility that we can a very quick reverse to the bear side, like a inverse of 2014 Oct scenario. Would that happen?
meanwhile, Friday's COT report suggest funds start to take long on NDX, so market may have some room to go on the upside if we follow last October pattern.

For the last two years, I have seen increasing number of instances of singular events. I am not sure how much conclusion we can draw from past pattern.

meanwhile, for the short term now that friday has make another high then the market has a chance to reach 209-211 area.

Macro view : "Bottom-up EPS for $SPX for Q1'16 fell 9.6%, the largest quarterly drop since Q1'09. "

Assuming this is the worst (Q1) and money is flowing in expecting better Q2, Q3

Concerns: some things are not adding up.

Prices are almost invisible here
What is visible are the 5/10/20 moving averages
There is no down until we start seeing some down
(ignore vertical lines)