Cobra's Market View

Smart money buying more, not extreme enough to argue a pullback, so probably still some up rooms.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

The weekly sentiment poll is here, thank.
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2093&p=226132#p226132

Summary of the week's stock picks. Not a bad week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2087&p=226135#p226135

Stress Test results
Wednesday night the Fed cleared 31 of 33 banks to return cash to shareholders, and failed Deutsche Bank and Santander.
It may interest you to know the “what if” scenario that the FED required banks to address in the Stress Test:

“…a severe global recession accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities. In this scenario, the level of U.S. real GDP begins to decline in the first quarter of 2016 and reaches a trough in the first quarter of 2017 that is 6.25 percent below the pre-recession peak. The unemployment rate increases by 5 percentage points, to 10 percent, by the middle of 2017, and headline consumer price inflation rises from about 0.25 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2016 to about 1.25 percent … by the end of the recession.… Equity prices fall approximately 50 percent through the end of 2016, accompanied by a surge in equity market volatility, which approaches the levels attained in 2008. House prices and commercial real estate prices also experience considerable declines, with house prices dropping 25 percent through the third quarter of 2018 and commercial real estate prices falling 30 percent through the second quarter of 2018.”

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevent ... 0629a1.pdf

The stock picks for the next week are here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2095&p=226138#p226138

Hi cobra , one thing keep haunting me about this week's rally was there is no VIX price divergence with lower high with Spx lower low. Though the market breath indicators were amazing.

Can you list any past cases where we have a good VIX spike up and no divergence with Spx and, Spx continued going up?

Thanks in advance

@ Uempel,

Does bullish percentage concern you with this week move up ?

One trader’s Rules For Survival:

tkvprasad wrote:Hi cobra , one thing keep haunting me about this week's rally was there is no VIX price divergence with lower high with Spx lower low. Though the market breath indicators were amazing.

Can you list any past cases where we have a good VIX spike up and no divergence with Spx and, Spx continued going up?

Thanks in advance

Sorry, I cannot test this, difficult to program. What you're asking is actually how many V reversals happened in the past, which I don't remember any.

ISEE sell signal equity C/P ratio: quick shift from extreme caution to extreme aggression. 95 on Thursday to 214 on Friday.

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/#

Al_Dente wrote:One trader’s Rules For Survival:

rules.png.png

Thanks, nice and simple

Wall Street Examiner

"Negative rates in Europe and Japan and a growing maelstrom in Europe continue to drive foreign capital to the US. This has put the US bond market in a position to break out and possibly drive yields even lower. It has also driven a recurring bid for US stocks that shows up any time a meltdown is threatened."

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2016/07/b ... ity-front/

For those of you that have never watched this video it is well worth watching, or if you have, it is well worth watching again.

Paul Tudor Jones famous interview and documentary “The Trader” is a classic amongst market professionals.

http://www.newtraderu.com/2013/05/16/tw ... he-trader/

July 1, 2016

Jill Mislinski has updated John Carlucci's "Best Stock Market Indicator".
According to this system, the market is now untradeable and a signal to exit all long trading.

The signals updated last weekend were tradeable and correct.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... tor-Update

CONTRARIAN SHOCKER:
For bond and yield folks:
“Why I'm So Aggressively Shorting Bonds”
By Doug Kass
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/article ... 02250.html

From it is what it is department:

Market Pending a Crash!

interesting headline makes it interest read ?

COT report shows this rally has some problem. Commercial trader didn't participate.

Current level of volatility of volatility is indicating a significant correction but it may be this month, or Aug.

Guys, don't forget our our sentiment polls here, thanks:
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2093

Question for fehro and BullBear52x …
Hypothetically, assuming that you have a small position in /GC (gold futures), would you add to your position now, hold as is or trim some here? Thanks!