Cobra's Market View

Smart money buying huge this week, so the pullback was over? I don't even know that we had any pullbacks.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Our weekly sentiment poll is here. Folks were right again about this week. Let's see how about the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2116

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2110&p=227456#p227456

week-to-date

The stock picks for the next week are here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2118&p=227459#p227459

Goldman: "at 18x, equity valuations are already stretched and have never surpassed 20x outside of the Tech Bubble"
Well, they are obviously using some obscure proprietary measure, because according to stockcharts, the SPX Price/Earnings Ratio (“trailing”PE) is 25.16x, the highest it has been in almost seven years.

Weekly /Daily Candles. Weeklies squeezed out a bullish candle late Friday.. after a very tight range all week. Dailies as well, but VIX remained an inside day. TLT Weekly hammered too of horizontal support. So a little worry for the bulls, not a big one.
USO weekly ugly. GLD held 200w SMA. VIX weekly near some support -ish.

P&F Long long term. Looking bullish USDollar included, /CL not so much.

Industry % Weeklies.

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

Put/Call still lingers to the overly too bullish side.. not extreme.. but close. Another small worry for the bulls.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily
Minor Divergence… daily as we make new highs.. not that it means much.

Yields

Yields v2.0

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D - little hiccup with tradingview.. lost my vertical date lines.
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D

No red, rolling over. Bullish for SPX.

Yet, IRX 13- week Treasury still near multi year highs,

So this is Austrian School so you know the bias going in. Look anyway because it has a lot of really good charts comparing indexes and of course some FRED stuff as well.The only bias that scares me are the authors that claim to not have a bias. Anyway this is well laid out and factual for what we would call a long term view.
[/url]http://www.acting-man.com/?p=45929[/url]

and the insanity continues...

(I only trade short side - due to flash crashes -- and short trades are scarce these days).

until we get below 2120 the fed/US govt money printers (aka ponzi pals team PPT) are in control.

WEEKLY
Top panel: We are now in our fifth consecutive quarter of earnings declines.
Q: In the past 20 years, has SPX ever continued up strong on declining earnings?
A: No. However “this time is different” because helicopter …
Bottom panel: According to the WEEKLY CCI we are stretched and should soon see the rubber band snap back a bit to reset.

Earnings note: As of 7/22, “…the blended earnings decline for the second quarter for the S&P 500 stands at -3.7%... it still appears likely the S&P 500 will report a year-over-year decline in earnings for the second quarter. If the index does report a year-over-year decline in earnings for the second quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported five consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q3 2008 through Q3 2009. …
Do analysts believe earnings will decline in the third quarter of 2016 also?
The answer is yes. This past week marked a change in the aggregate expectations of analysts from slight growth in year-over-year earnings (0.3%) for Q3 2016 to a slight decline in year-over-year earnings for Q3 2016 (-0.1%). However, expectations for earnings growth for Q3 2016 have been falling not just over the past few weeks, but over the past few months as well. On March 31, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q3 2016 was 3.3%. By June 30, the estimated growth rate had declined to 0.6%. Today, it stands at -0.1%....It is interesting to note that analysts in aggregate do expect earnings growth to return in the fourth quarter of 2016.” [FactSet]

Breadth Indicators still positive.

What-if the past year was a basing pattern?

Wyckoff calculates a break-out target by using PnF...>> ~3200

I can do even better than that.... SPX 3665!

http://paststat.com/blog/costas-minimal ... rojection/

(not my work, just posting for the sheer insanity of it...)

pezhead9000 wrote:What-if the past year was a basing pattern?

Wyckoff calculates a break-out target by using PnF...>> ~3200