Cobra's Market View

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sharp up but still in range, so still no direction.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/09 ... ay-update/

SPX gapping Tuesday's gap 2173-2176… opening 2178ish.. near 20d SMA 2179.85. mind the bullish falling wedge 60m, in a larger expanding wedge.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ fwiw.

/ES D/4hr.. into resistance… could pop up huge.. or stall * chart updated

$ADUSD is up a whopping 3700+ so, breadth is very strong.

Fed raises rates and signals strong economy and Bulls are in charge.
Weak jobs keep Fed from raising rates and Bulls are in charge. Everyone is bullish.
I am not.

SPX nears that sticky zone again .. yellow trend 2181-83

Out of Bounds wrote:$ADUSD is up a whopping 3700+ so, breadth is very strong.

Fed raises rates and signals strong economy and Bulls are in charge.
Weak jobs keep Fed from raising rates and Bulls are in charge. Everyone is bullish.
I am not.

It is tough to justify the bullish sentiments. However, with the Fed put in place, every correction is a buy until it is not.

TRANSports.. takes out Aug highs.. pressing for Jul highs / RUT too testing Aug highs.. over Jul highs

SPX nibble.. small short here.. cautiously.

fehro wrote:/ES D/4hr.. into resistance… could pop up huge.. or stall * chart updated

/ES tags upper yellow channel.. just over 20d 2177.75

Rate hike odds fell hard earlier today. Now Goldman says da Boyz got it wrong, that the jobs number was just high enough to keep September hike on the table.

Three push up in small caps but momentum has just gone to neutral.

Looks like Goldman may have taken the punch bowl away from the party.

fehro wrote:SPX nibble.. small short here.. cautiously.

SPX 20d 2179.89 SPY 20d 218.18 looking for a tag.. breaks below them.. could see more down.. possible gap fills

pullback a little sharp maybe h2 is needed to buy the dip.

DXY trying to hammer off the 20d SMA .. but < 50d SMA

sloppy little H&S SPX 1m .. /es 5m … SPX takes out 20d.. looking for 2174

Well, this isn't going to be very helpful.

The NYMO cycle is up?
After over a month of negative readings, NYMO is punching well above zero this morning.
Assuming it closes positive, we'll have a confirmed higher low and higher high.
I'll mark August 2 as the low for the last cycle.

A couple of thoughts...
An up cycle that spends most of the time below zero is not particularly strong. NYMO needs to close above zero and stay there for awhile.
If we have been in an up cycle, it has been running awhile. How much longer does it have?
Corrective NYMO moves often will have a close past the zero line before resuming trend. If we have a weak close or reverse next week, today could be a fake out.
NFP has a history of thrusts and reversals.

So, we may be starting trade to get to fresh highs and my upper potential target.
Or, this may be a stop running counter thrust before resuming down. A bunch of targets below.
I haven't a clue, but today's close and follow through next week should clarify.
If I sound cautious, it is because my other models are cautious.

I am flat. My remaining short in the campaign was breakeven stopped.
Next position may be long or short depending on upcoming price action.

Happy Labor Day Weekend all.