Cobra's Market View

Smart money not much move so doesn't tell anything this week other than it's neither bottom nor top.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

the weekly sentiment poll is here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2166

Summary of the week's stock picks:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2160&p=229415#p229415
Not a bad week.

The next week's stock picks are here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2168

Labor on the lake weekend update.And a good one to all. Vote Cobra.

Weekly, Daily candles. Weeklies.. mixed doji, RUT strong.. and VIX weak outside reversal. GLD hammer off 200w, DXY under 50w SMA, OIL weak. Dailies dojis to spinning tops, VIX again weak ugly and <20d<50d close. TLT weekly looks like a bull flag.

Industry % Weeklies

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
Weakness in % stocks over 40d SMA slipping as we chop sideways. Weakness drifting in.

Yields

Yields v2.0

IRX 13w Treasury… near multi year highs again test 2009 highs

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D

looking at 2041 es as level to be broken

hi DTES, miss your daily estimates in the forum. I hope you will restart posting them. Thanks.

daytradingES wrote:looking at 2041 es as level to be broken

daytradingES wrote:looking at 2041 es as level to be broken

You still see 2194 as upside resistance? Or looking at 2200?

El Fumar, one of my trading partners, enjoying an end of summer roll in his cat mint patch.

Trades with cats wrote:

IMG_0309.jpg

El Fumar, one of my trading partners, enjoying an end of summer roll in his cat mint patch.

Lovely, I likee...

“September is an awful month for the U.S. stock market…. Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average was created in the late 1890s, September has produced an average loss of 1.1%. The 11 other months of the calendar, in contrast, have produced an average gain of 0.8%.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/septem ... 2016-08-30

I have a rally to begin by Tuesday looking for 2210-2235 I also expect weakness Monday to position for this move.

Daily SPY:

The late June correction will fall out of the 50 DMA calculation this week so that will jump up quite a bit.

… it would seem that when VIX's 20-day cumulative put volume falls below 400,000 contracts, the S&P tends to experience some weakness….
Upon further inspection, these troughs in VIX put volume have, in fact, served as precursors to VIX spikes, as well as some corresponding S&P weakness….
…And while we wouldn't recommend unloading all of your shares and heading for the bunkers on the basis of what amounts to a relative handful of data points, those who prefer to play it safe might wish to avail themselves of some portfolio protection…
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/conte ... lity-spike