Cobra's Market View

Smart money historically short this week. One week huge buy, one week huge sell, guess smart money is clueless as well. The trend though is keeping making new record short which is not a good sign for bulls.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2232

Summary of the week's stock picks:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2226&p=231931#p231931

Week-to-date
Always interesting to note which “Scooters” are strongest

No stock picks this week, as there're only 142 candidates, see explanation here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2234

10/25
Technical indicators:
SPX is below its 50 and 100-day moving averages = Bearish
Unless it can retake its 50 and 100-day moving averages, the market remains in the danger zone.
Moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) of SPX is below the zero line = Bearish
SPX support is 2,130 and 2,072 (200-day moving average)

Sentiment indicators:
Institutional Investor survey: (Oct. 18) 42.9% Bulls; 23.8% Bears = Neutral
American Association of Individual Investors survey: (Oct. 19): 23.7% Bulls; 37.8% Bears = Neutral
Although neither sentiment survey is at extremes, the pros are bullish, and retail investors are bearish. Typically, retail investors get it wrong…

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13.34 = Bearish
Relative Strength Index (RSI) of SPX at 46.62 = Neutral

The technical indicators are giving us a clear message that the stock market is struggling. Here are a few other clues that you ought to heed:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us ... 2016-10-24

Weekly / Daily Candles. Weak Indexes both daily and weekly. As VIX bullish >200d and nears 50w SMA

Industry % Weeklies. SPY big uptick in Volume on Friday.

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
Swing indicators after last week trying to go buy… swing back to sell across the board.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily
Weakness continues.

Yields

Yields v2.0

As mentioned on Thursday.. seems everything is on/near a very key support level.. all with huge gap potential.

“Goldman is trying to persuade Apple to make a rival bid for Time Warner…”
[Is the New York Post a credible source ? ]
http://nypost.com/2016/10/29/goldman-sa ... me-warner/

Mr. Market generally doesn't like to make a low on a Friday.

If we make fresh lows below Friday, perhaps a bounce trade will set up.

500 daily update...yellow diamond top breakdown...Bear down now ursa. Vote Cobra, glta.

From it is what it is department:

Nothing bullish to talk about this weekend chart wise any bounce will be sold into.

$GDX is in bottoming process will it make it or not remain to be seen, but GLD is very optimistic right now.GLD weakly long term buy the dip got a good start. see short term trade > 5dma.

My internals line (blue) is crashing.
Does it mean the market will fall? -- time will tell

Source:
https://meritocracycapital.com/gdi-better-gdp/