11/05/2016 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Smart money covered a little from historical short, not enough to argue the low was in as in case 2.), we need see it rises sharply.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2240

[Cobra]

No weekly stock picks, the reason is important, see here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2242

[flrtrader]

Double post

[flrtrader]

ST the whole direction depends on the election, Rep win down 80 es points. Dems win up 80.... So are charts predictive? They are even split right now, some reliable s are saying bottom and others are saying big thrust down coming. Personally I think there is to much coruption in the current admin to allow the reps to win, but I also think the American people are sick of what is going on and in an honest election it will be a land slide for Reps. But that is the question, How many dead people are actually going to show up and vote? I think a whole bunch.

Powder dry just scratching head.

[fehro]

Weekly & Daily candles. Bearish, nearing support. VIX looks Bullish.

[fehro]

Industry % Weeklies

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

As per the last two weekends, swing still on sell with weakness. Put/Call nears extremes… for the contrarian trade… too many bears.
SKEW on the move up.. prepare for big moves.. a give considering the election next week.

[fehro]

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily
Weak.

[fehro]

Yields

[fehro]

Yields v2.0

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D

IRX 13w Treasuries.. new multi-year highs, back to Oct 2008.

[fehro]

ST the whole direction depends on the election, Rep win down 80 es points. Dems win up 80.... So are charts predictive? They are even split right now, some reliable s are saying bottom and others are saying big thrust down coming. Personally I think there is to much coruption in the current admin to allow the reps to win, but I also think the American people are sick of what is going on and in an honest election it will be a land slide for Reps. But that is the question, How many dead people are actually going to show up and vote? I think a whole bunch.

Powder dry just scratching head.

The multi million dollar question. The election.

fwiw, imho, 4 main possibilities:

1. Hillary landslide: Markets initially up, the possibly sideways or long term down. All investigations dropped, Washington/Economy status quo more of the same (depending on foreign policy - Highest probability for war.)

2. Hillary wins by small margin, Investigations continues lead to inditement/impeach. Markets initial up… sideways to down.

3. Hillary/Trump too close to call - in courts.. for weeks - Markets sideways .. possible drift down. (could be quick reactionary move down before sideways)
----*Wildcard Obama 3rd Term - executive order.

4. Trump win/landslide: Markets initially down, sideways then up .. and possible long term bull market. (contrarian move to what most expect)
- yeah I know .. crazy talk. (contrarian move to what most expect) - again contrarian.. "looking" for a possible explosive up move in the dollar.


Market does not like indecision, and does not do what most expect .. hence contrary to the mainstream narrative.. a decisive win by Trump .. gives the most solid message.. and it will be down to business.. hence up imho… again yeah I know .. crazy talk.

Mind the yellow expanding wedge… yellow upper side initial moves. Cyan, lower yellow, and red arrows for a drop.

Buckle up its going to be a crazy week.

[fehro]

While every establishment politician and mainstream media pundit has proclaimed the end of the world as we know it if Donald Trump were to win next week, it appears - perhaps throwing off the narrative of exactly who is the "most dangerous" candidate - that the risk of the US Dollar has dropped along with Trump's resurgence...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-0 ... rump-gains

[Al_Dente]

INDICES: Everyone is down with lower lows
Can someone please explain to me why TRAN is up and strong, printing higher lows, and testing its year high for the FOURTH time

Here’s an old BofA projection of post-election scenarios for a clinton/trump win:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-2 ... -scenarios

[Al_Dente]

‘DRY POWDER”
Looks like they are parking in the short-term-treasury ETF (pink, SHY) awaiting redeployment

[user13]

ST the whole direction depends on the election, Rep win down 80 es points. Dems win up 80.... So are charts predictive? They are even split right now, some reliable s are saying bottom and others are saying big thrust down coming. Personally I think there is to much coruption in the current admin to allow the reps to win, but I also think the American people are sick of what is going on and in an honest election it will be a land slide for Reps. But that is the question, How many dead people are actually going to show up and vote? I think a whole bunch.

Powder dry just scratching head.

This, I am voting Trump. I hope everyone else does too. We need to draintheswamp.

[ALdaytrade]

ST the whole direction depends on the election, Rep win down 80 es points. Dems win up 80.... So are charts predictive? They are even split right now, some reliable s are saying bottom and others are saying big thrust down coming. Personally I think there is to much coruption in the current admin to allow the reps to win, but I also think the American people are sick of what is going on and in an honest election it will be a land slide for Reps. But that is the question, How many dead people are actually going to show up and vote? I think a whole bunch.

Powder dry just scratching head.

This, I am voting Trump. I hope everyone else does too. We need to draintheswamp.

How can you possibly think that Trump will be the advocate for working people. He has screwed working people his entire life. Trump has narcissistic personality disorder.

[BullBear52x]

From it is what it is department:
Chart maters, News = Noise for real cash.
I am looking at 2092 as my short term pivot. bottom or not to bottom is the question?

[BullBear52x]

Sector scan, nothing interesting, nothing to see here so go out and vote nothing to buy yet

[flrtrader]

ST the whole direction depends on the election, Rep win down 80 es points. Dems win up 80.... So are charts predictive? They are even split right now, some reliable s are saying bottom and others are saying big thrust down coming. Personally I think there is to much coruption in the current admin to allow the reps to win, but I also think the American people are sick of what is going on and in an honest election it will be a land slide for Reps. But that is the question, How many dead people are actually going to show up and vote? I think a whole bunch.

Powder dry just scratching head.

This, I am voting Trump. I hope everyone else does too. We need to draintheswamp.

How can you possibly think that Trump will be the advocate for working people. He has screwed working people his entire life. Trump has narcissistic personality disorder.

Not even going to comment other than

If you can't see why any sain American would not want Killary as our leader there is no sense going into it. The crookedness in the Democratic party is beyond belief! Most Americans have turned to sheeple who believe the garbage that comes out of the Dems mouths. She and Obama and his cronees belong in jail. PERIOD