Cobra's Market View

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triangle, bias is up.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/11 ... ay-update/

SPX opening at 2159ish mind the gap 20w 2152.50

Weekly candles.. SPY/DIA/IWM/UUP strong .. etc.. TLT/GLD weak

SPX 20w SMA coming up 2151.95

Not a lot to add to yesterday's post.

Price has been strong. Volume has been big.
But NYMO has been soft and negatively divergent.
When I see a price surge like this, I also want to see a big breadth thrust.
Maybe it will kick in ahead but so far this NYMO is not consistent with a kick-off bull move. Sorry.

It makes the whole election day action suspicious.
The initial direction was down hard all recovered in after hours to feed a squeezing move in the cash market.
Me thinks those overnight lows will get tested (and perhaps bested) in days ahead. After OPEX perhaps?
Perhaps a new ATH or at least a close of the gap at SPX 2186.16 comes first, but I suspect we will see those overnight lows tested in due course.

Putting on my tin foil hat (it's been awhile), I would not put it past the jackals to fix a stock operation to gas the buyers of election hedges and to work off inventory before letting price discovery to ensue.
We shall see.
This comment is just some imagination as a possibility. I truly do not have a clue.
However, the data suggests bull caution for now and perhaps entertaining bear setups ahead.

Another up target was hit. There is still another gap target not far above yesterday's high.

I am still flat.

hmmm mind the possible sloppy H&S on the /ES 30m.. yLOD goes.. then measure move = -30points.. SPX 2122

IWM strongest
SPY lower high
QQQ weakest

I don't follow bonds. Media keeps saying big selloff in bonds because the incoming admin wants to spend. If true then you would expect the funds to reduce leverage. Maybe they are waiting for the dust to settle.

Here we go, another baby step towards yesterday's low.

Spy daily. Targets based on fib confluence. Last gasp to line their pockets fade.Good week end to all, happy veterans day. Vote Cobra Sec of the Treasury.

Percentage difference between banks (top panel) and tech (bottom)
10 months

A ultra-long-term view of the current massacre in bonds
30 years

Trades with cats wrote:I don't follow bonds. Media keeps saying big selloff in bonds because the incoming admin wants to spend. If true then you would expect the funds to reduce leverage. Maybe they are waiting for the dust to settle.

it broke a multi year trend in a bearish rising wedge

FWIW
New lows yesterday 181
New highs yesterday 286
That is way too many new lows for a healthy bull market, and the lows need to reverse immediately….
In fact, it triggers the old “Akron Omen,” a cousin of the Hindenburg
FWIW

My alcohol level must be low, sicky like a big puppy. no trade just want to stop by with some charts.

Relief rally pullback is as expected, dip will be bought since last push up was good enough to have HH cut to it. On the other hands, QQQ is worry some. the bearish engulfing of yesterday is scary, anyhow, over all health of the market is behaving as expected on TA side of things, I'll be back next week. Peace!

BullBear52x wrote:My alcohol level must be low, sicky like a big puppy. no trade just want to stop by with some charts....

hi boss GET WELL SOON

ELSEWHERE:
Yesterday INDU hit more than 3 standard deviations above its 50 DMA
That’s too extreme, and it never lasts long. It will be corrected either by moving sideways or down or both... before resuming up
In fact you can see it pulled slightly off that 3 std dev already today

I read last year that most of the new wave mega hit tech companies shared a common attribute. They provide a way to get around regulations and taxes. The incoming federal enforcers may be part of a self-proclaimed law and order administration. Same time a roll back of government picking winners in health care opens the door for bio-tech.