Cobra's Market View

No new NASDAQ 100 Combo Hedgers Position data, sorry. So this is just to start a new thread so guys can chat over the weekend.

Just don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2249&p=232818#p232818

Still no stock picks for the next week, here's the new candidates count which actually measures the internal:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2251

Don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2249&p=232818#p232818

SPY scant 100.4 million shares volume Friday
All/most of the volume went into banks and small caps IWM (95.6 million shares in IWM Friday, most since last December).
The up volume is slowing into banks (XLF, KBE, KRE) but not yet slowing into IWM.

Guessing the reasons for the massive squeeze in small caps and banks:
Trump’s big tax cuts for small businesses should help small caps and it is projected to aid new-business formation.
Trump dismantaling Dodd-Frank will free the banks from regulation, but his team is currently studying that for revisions.
Ripping up most of the Affordable Care Act should also help small caps.
His tax bill should help repatriate offshore funds, but Apple with its zillions offshore isn’t buying it (well, it would mean that they’d pay some $10 billion??? in tax, and the stock was thus underperforming). [EDIT: proposed is a one-time 10% tax on all foreign earnings not yet taxed by the US.]
It’s all speculation until actual bills get to the floor of the Sausage Factory next year.

Here’s a good view of the tax proposals, all of which are subject to change, obviously.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxEdcRjVEAAJfQd.jpg

Critics believe that all the tax cuts and infrastructure spending will increase the debt further, as the nation slips into recession.

It has been said, for about the last 100 years, that the stock market as a leading indicator, leads the economy by about 6-8 months...

MORE:
Here’s a view of Fund Flows as a % of AUM (assets under management) during Trump week
It shows heavy flows also into healthcare and industrials and tech
I don’t see those heavy flows into all technology, although the PSCT (small-cap tech) that I monitor to help me with IWM is strong (also PSCF, small-cap financials).
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxEzE_oVIAAvRBG.jpg

CME group 30 day futures indicate 81% odds of December rate hike.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interes ... -fomc.html

To me the real issue is that we have run out of sovereign buyers for bonds. ECB is talking about tapering. FOMC is simply reinvesting payments, BoJ is standing pat, now BoE is stopping. Add to that the dumping by all the oil funds plus the Developing Economies as they try to defend their currency, PBOC has been selling like crazy.

If we find that unlike several false starts, this really is the end of the 30 plus year bull then welcome to a new age.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-yellen ... ?mod=e2twe

By KATE DAVIDSON
Nov. 10, 2016 12:34 p.m. ET

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is headed to Capitol Hill next week to testify before the Joint Economic Committee, the committee said Thursday.

Ms. Yellen will appear before the panel, which includes both the House and Senate lawmakers, on Nov. 17 to testify about the economic outlook.
Fed leaders typically visit the committee once or twice a year to testify about the economy and monetary policy.

The last time Ms. Yellen appeared before the committee was Dec. 3, 2015, shortly before the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

Fed officials have left rates unchanged since then, but officials have signaled they could raise rates a quarter percentage point when they meet again on Dec. 13-14,
though they will be watching markets closely for signs of volatility following Donald Trump’s surprise victory in Tuesday’s presidential contest.


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/d ... tpp-231212

President-elect Donald Trump plans to move quickly to fulfill some of his most controversial campaign promises related to what he derided as “job-killing” trade policies,
according to an internal transition team document shared with POLITICO.

Within the first 100 days, his administration will drop out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and 100 days after that it could withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement
unless certain demands are met, according to the described policy road map.

Other first-day business includes labeling China a currency manipulator — something the Obama administration avoided in its eight years —
and teaming up the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to
examine all major proposed foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies to ensure equal opportunities for American investors abroad.


https://www.ft.com/content/8662c3b6-a72 ... 899e8bd9d1

Beijing plans rival Asia-Pacific trade deal after Trump victory
China moves to fill gap amid expectations next US president will refuse to ratify TPP

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/11/11/ ... nd-switch/Notice when value fades they just pull Yellen's strings.Vote Cobra, good luck this week.

From it is what it is department,
Bulls are marching on. Triangle still in play.

Weekly Daily candles. Weekly bullish (NDX so-so) .. dailies pausing.

Industry % Weeklies. SPY daily vol pulls back, on Friday.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-1 ... ns-losses?
$22 billion poured into US equity ETFs over the past three days, which is not only three times larger than the outflow seen in the previous week before the election, but it presents the strongest 3-day buying streak since last January

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

Swinging to the buy side.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

Yields

Yields v2.0

Black Gold- Looks confusing. The pros in the futures market have been lightening up on longs and adding shorts. The funds and retail traders have been buying the ETF's in advance of OPEC news releases attached to a meeting.

US refineries are cranking it out before they all go home over the winter holiday. The reason the air is always wonderful for the Rose Parade is they shut down over the holidays. Bad news is the four week average demand for gasoline is below last year. Maybe Elon is actually delivering cars.

Real bad news is that Northern Europe (I think they mean Rotterdam and nearby) has run out of storage. Supposedly they have 15 or so AfraMax tankers on hold to unload. Supposedly the charter rate just doubled. Supposedly tankers for floating storage are showing up off Singapore again. There are only so many tankers in the spot market pool and if they get log jammed hellow rates.

Anyway, I smell volatility. If money is piling into the ETFs then you know the trading houses will have a field day when the time comes to roll those front month contracts. Yes, they now spread it out over several days, but still somebody will figure out a way to make guaranteed money off the roll. And we will be treated to the PR spectacle of OPEC trying to jaw bone prices up while setting all time record production levels. Seems like another opportunity for higher prices to cause higher prices for a while if net cash starts flooding into the market. And you know what happens once reality catches up with the new bulls.

Domestically it is all following the Shale Drillers plan. Number of drill rigs keeps increasing and US Shale production is looking solid. Last time I saw a longer term chart most of the US decline was due to depletion in Alaska. Of course to add wood to the fire Pres Obama approved that pipeline in the Dakotas after the election and President Elect Trump has promised to approve the pipeline from the tar sands of Canada. Bottom line if Uncle Warrens Choo Choo stops getting $2 a barrel and the pipeline operators start collecting 30 cents a barrel for the same job it will impact activity levels in the north.

Longer term Wall Street Journal reports that regulators are forcing VW to take the profits from their new SUV (comes out next year) to subsidize electric and plug in hybrids. So at least in LA there will be even more coal powered cars in the future! You can not make this crazy stuff up.

VLCC tanker holds 2 million barrels. AfraMax are smaller.