Cobra's Market View

Shortened trading week so no COT data. This is just to open a thread of everyone to chat in the weekend...

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2267

The weekly stock picks are here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2269

Daily Silver update. Not sure up to the cloud by opec is likely now.If XAU loses 78 it has alot of air below. Very nice symetrical chart there.For the broader 1%ers piggy bank then, further commodity weakness would soon be a bit of a drag (deflation/liquidity trap) again.Strings will be pulled post Monday midnight, a carry trade breakout is a silver short.Glta next week. Vote Cobra.

Tom McClellan:
"Peculiar Move by Dollar and Small Caps"
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... mall_caps/

From it is what it is department:

bulls got fed well this holiday season, no fear and complacent market.

Weekly & Daily Candles. SPX, INDU, COMPQ, RUT new ATH .. still lagging TRANSports, NDX, NYSE. VIX also no where near ATL. Oil Weekly not pretty gravestone, inv hammer.. GLD nears possible support as DXY dollar nears resistance. TLT near mid channel multi year support.

Indsutry % Weeklies

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
Still on swing buy. Put/Call nearing extreme levels for the contrarian trade.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

Yields.

Yields v2.0

https://www.amazon.com/Hour-Between-Dog ... 0143123408
.. very interesting weekend read.

Before he became a world-class scientist, John Coates ran a derivatives trading desk in New York City. He used the expression “the hour between dog and wolf” to refer to the moment of Jekyll-and-Hyde transformation traders passed through when under pressure. They became cocky and irrationally risk-seeking when on a winning streak, tentative and risk-averse when cowering from losses.

My take on $USD. very overbought ( see CCI ) the level of support is clear here in a bigger picture. Short term UUP got two gap downs in the past week but sustained price above 5DMA, another gap down this time will change the look in short term trend with weakening in histogram. for now 5 DMA or Friday LOD is key support.

DXY D/Monthly Nears 102.50 key monthly resistance. Monthly candle closes on Wed. Could get choppy next month, or not and explode even higher.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-2 ... tocks-1996

15 Straight days up... The longest winning streak since 1996. Nothing to see here, move along... (the last time Small Caps rose for a longer streak was March 1988) (best 3 week gains since March 2009)

So everyone on the net is hyperventilating about the “massive” rally and how it has to mean-revert soon, because it is so overbought, and everyone is worried that PEOTUS will eventually kick a kitten and put the kibosh on the jump.
A sober look at the WEEKLY shows that we’ve only had 3 (three) WEEKLY bull bars so far. That’s quite modest when you look at the bull runs of the recent past, like the bull run of last December, then the run off the February lows, then the June/July bull run… count the bars… just count ‘em … it looks like the market can handle at least 6 (six) WEEKLY bull bars, and likely more…
Hence a pullback next week, as long as it’s not too deep, should be a buy opportunity, then a resumption of the rally could eventually see target 228 SPY, which would be at ROUGHLY the top of the uptrend channel.

In two weeks, 12/14, the Fed will raise rates, but I think that consensus is already baked into current prices, and we’ll burn that bridge when we come to it.
For those managed portfolios (rich people/institutions) who rebalance monthly, the difference between the SPX gains and bond losses is so great, that they will need to sell plenty of stocks and buy plenty of bonds to realign the balance this month (Wednesday is EOM). However, I believe that most managed accounts contractually require only quarterly rebalancing, which will be an issue at year end.

FYI, OIL