Cobra's Market View

Smart money rose sharply but the market was up and up and up, so I don't know what it means... The rose is not extreme so doesn't predict anything anyway.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2284

we have thousands of visits everyday, don't know why only a few are willing to participate...

The stock picks for the next week are here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2286&p=234190#p234190

Black Gold- Vienna non-opec member agreement as expected today. Clipper Data showed us these countries have declining production.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-1 ... ons-remain

The big issue is how this will go as we move into seasonal weakness. Clearly The media is setting up the longs to be slammed and with cuts not hitting until January we should have some epic inventory builds. Last year they squeezed the shorts mid winter when the Niger River Avengers took Nigeria off line and created a short term cut. Saudi and their partners could certainly set things up for a repeat this year. After all no one really knows how much they will cut so mid-winter production numbers will be watched very closely.

One part of the puzzle that will give everyone an idea of timing is when that IPO hits. I would guess in July as that is usually peak oil price for the year. When ever it happens I would expect they will want the shorts to pile in well in advance so they can sling shot off the squeeze into seasonal strength. After the IPO I would guess it all falls apart just like these OPEC deals have in the past.

Will the shale drillers use this opportunity to pump profits and pay down debt? I doubt it as their natural instinct is drill baby drill and they are. I do think this gives us yet another year or two of boom bust and delays the long term bottom, Once the bottom is in investing in relatively low debt unglamorous firms with long lived assets will help you sleep at night.

Weekly & Daily Candles. Weekly bullish. Daily a couple toppy, pausing candles possible.

Industry % Weeklies

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

Swing buy still going. Put/Call nears extreme, possibly toppy. % Stocks >200d>40d strong.

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

Yields v2.0

Yields v2.0

IRX - 13-Week Treasury multi year highs again.

02 Dec silver post update. Daily diamond. Entry/exit target circled. Time for the seasonal pump so a tight stop will move with stochastics now.Vote Cobra, glta this week.

It is what it is department:

Correction is coming either in time or in price remain to be seen. Short term 2245 is key level for support short term. below that the correction in price is coming 50% mark?, or we will get a correction in time sideways all week long. My trading will be spotty in a coming week to end of month, Ho ho ho.....

This is the reason why I don't project the price, it's all good and fun but.....bottom line it's only for what if?or just draw the line in the sand. now you see the secret of my TA something to this line of thought. Me and only me know what is the right price for me, or you can watch the guy who roll up his sleeves and tell you like he know what's up, Peace!

BullBear52x wrote:This is the reason why I don't project the price, it's all good and fun but.....bottom line it's only for what if?

1.PNG

or just draw the line in the sand. now you see the secret of my TA something to this line of thought. Me and only me know what is the right price for me, or you can watch the guy who roll up his sleeves and tell you like he know what's up, Peace!

Good stuff, plain and simple..

like Steve Jobs said "Simple can be harder than complex. You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple"

`

Black Gold- If anyone is still up I am awarding myself two bonus points for guessing Saudi motivation. They have announced that they will essentially do what ever it takes in the way of production cuts. WTI is over 53, according to zerohedge a 15 month high for this time of year. The best part is that so far it is noting but talk while they pump at record levels. I am wondering if they have already made up their potential lost income. Anyway, it is a long time until the January cuts start. But for now they are for sure the pied piper of crude.