Cobra's Market View

Flat open, any gap will be filled. I see possible Rectangle formation is in the forming so more likely see another push up today.
Institutional actions from stocktiming.

Good Morning.

Finally, a long weekend. Shall we go to the pool?
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/es_01.html
What for...try out the 10-meter?

My proprietary TLT:TIP ratio is predicting more lows in the S&P. We have a ratio of 0.85 which has preceded every correction or consolidation in the market since 2003. It is now flashing a warning, so lower prices are ahead, although sometimes the market can levitate for a bit longer.

The red vertical lines signal the 0.85 level. This simply means inflation expectations are too high which corresponds to a sell off in risk assets. Only in a few cases was it painful to be short for very long when this signal flashed, so the bulls who are predicting new highs in the S&P before a lower low may be in for a surprise.

Yeah! We can do swan dives or butterflies or whatever they're called.
EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/eurusd.html
Fun!

cheech wrote:My proprietary TLT:TIP ratio is predicting more lows in the S&P. We have a ratio of 0.85 which has preceded every correction or consolidation in the market since 2003. It is now flashing a warning, so lower prices are ahead, although sometimes the market can levitate for a bit longer.

The red vertical lines signal the 0.85 level. This simply means inflation expectations are too high which corresponds to a sell off in risk assets. Only in a few cases was it painful to be short for very long when this signal flashed, so the bulls who are predicting new highs in the S&P before a lower low may be in for a surprise.

Nice observation.

Good morning.
VIX for the bears: it is toward the end of an ABC correction, with a possible target around 15.
After this, an UP impulse should follow.

I see a slow day today (range bound) as long as the data does not surprise too much.

the open.

Oil, gold and most other risk assets are falling sharply. This is consistent with an environment where people expect too much inflation.

Apple is knocking on the bottom of that ten day wedge.

If the market reverses , likely trigger is here.

Dollar is also up, although not in a big way...

Update SPX:

cougar wrote:Good morning.
VIX for the bears: it is toward the end of an ABC correction, with a possible target around 15.
After this, an UP impulse should follow.

Good call. Any thoughts when to buy TVIX?

Big Ben did his last big push.Yesterday the liquidity was hugh,now we wait and see.

The NYSEBP on Dorsey Wright Point and Figure charts was up big yesterday.They now stand at 54.8%. It has to go to 58% to change to an up trend.Right now I am on the line to turn bullish but will be watching for a dn turn. Watch your charts.Have good trading and lets not rush into a mkt thats needs a pull back.

putts wrote:

cougar wrote:Good morning.
VIX for the bears: it is toward the end of an ABC correction, with a possible target around 15.
After this, an UP impulse should follow.

Good call. Any thoughts when to buy TVIX?

When we get the first signs of an aggressive reversal…
But, it will not be an easy call!

little resistance here. need more info.

here comes the printing. big jump on mfg

pop up le

OK, breakout as I said, don't fight the strength. This is way strong, nothing can stop it.

quick notes on data
today's data is way stronger than yesterday. it is suggesting a strong growth with lower price, ie this is the best moment for economy (one of). if the data are for real, i am expecting to see upward revise of major economy forecasts.