Cobra's Market View

Smart money not extremely short yet so should still be some up rooms.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2326

Summary of the week's stock picks:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2320&p=235583#p235583

The next week's stock picks are here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2328

Look who else is on the trump train: VEU, top panel
VEU is the equity markets in the rest of the world, primarily large caps, ex-US.
It has triple top resistance just ahead

SENTIMENT:
BOTTOM PANEL: In the last reading, the investment managers (NAAIM) were 100% all-in, now (last Wednesday) they’ve backed off the precipice to 89% …meaning that managers are not suggesting margining to the hilt (above 100%), and are telling their clients that they are not as bullish as they were the week before.
There is historical precedence for a bit of a market pullback starting from this number (and especially if it drops another notch on Wednesday).
TOP PANEL: The other sentiment indicators, inverted VIXes, are not yet signaling a pullback …
WEEKLY chart

It is what it is department:
Know the time frame and where your money is because the money is not in the market, not a whole lot like it used to FWIW.

Here's a tale about the poor helpless bankers fighting the good fight vs greedy mom and pop savers and the cruelty of zero interest rates failing to work.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/10/maga ... front&_r=0

In a brilliant and lucid new book, “The Curse of Cash,” the Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff gives a fascinating and thorough account of the argument against cash. There are two main pillars to it. The first and more wonkish concerns something called the “zero lower bound.” Because official interest rates can’t be set below zero — if they were, people would just hold cash instead — the tool kit of monetary policy has a built-in limit. This might sound like a small point, but as Rogoff explains, “the zero bound has essentially crippled monetary policy across the advanced world for much of the past eight years.” Governments want to get money moving in the economy, but in a world awash in paper currency, monetary policy can do nothing further to help. If central banks could go below the zero bound, as a cashless economy would allow, they could in effect force people to spend their money and thereby kick-start the economy.

I'd like to thank the New York Times for spinning this poignant, heartwarming story. At the Times, everyone LOVES bankers.

Oil I easily found this site if you are interested in the daily production rate by month of many countries. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-a ... production
This is 5 years of Saudi production rates. They have promised to back below 10 million level which was breached last March.

Re Oil

I am wondering on the Saudi gameplan.
At the time of the fall from $100 the idea floated was that they were trying to break the back of the USA shale oil drillers (SODs) with low prices.
It seems they almost did that - but would have had to have kept the price at $30 area to for the coup de gras.
Just when they, the SODs were on the ropes they let the price back up to $50 and the SODs refinanced.

So that whole scenario doesn't make sense.
----

Perhaps the US govt made a secret deal with the Saudis to punish Venezuela? (as Chavez hurt the USA oil companies and generally gave the finger to the USA's attempts to control their country and assassinate Chavez ?)

(I remember the film with Robert Redford where the CIA kills all of their own people - except Redford who has gone out for lunch because they unknowingly discovered a real plot in their reading of fiction novels)

ah well - Nigeria and Libya aren't in the deal so the touted "Big Reduction Agreement" all seems a bunch of hooey

“I WORRY A GREAT DEAL ABOUT INEQUALITY.” [Chair Yellen]
The global elites shall soon alight in Davos, disembark their private jets, chauffeur to the chalet, settle into their luxury suites, attend a reception with champagne and fouie gras, then get down to business, probably chatting about “inequality”.

Actually it’s quite the globalpalooza with 3,000 participants from 99 countries. In addition to the masters of the universe, many NGOs attend, and “more than half of the 400 sessions will focus on social inclusion and development”.

“No matter how improbable, the event most likely to happen is the opposite of whatever the Davos consensus is.” [Kenneth Rogoff]
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... 011317_BIZ

WHAT AM I MISSING?

Trump warned he will impose a border tax of 35 percent on everything from vehicles imported from abroad to the U.S. market to Zebra skins.

Trump want to deport all 'cheap' labor in the US.

Trump wants to ???????

My take on this, where am I wrong????

1- The US needs cheap labor, there is the $15 per hour movement, now I ask you;
Who can live on $15 per hour? Yes, a single person living with their parents but an adult with a home, car, insurance, food, utility bills, clothing, all everyday necessities, who????

2 - Charging a 35% 'border tax'.
First, 90% of everything used in everything in the US is either made, assembled or both outside the US.

Common sense tells you this 35% tax will be passed to the consumer. Correct???

Common sense tells you the 'average' American can't afford to pay 35% more for everything they need to live. Correct????

Common sense tells you a 35% increase of almost everything will create the largest increase in INFLATION since 1981 (Reaganomics). I remember this time well, I owned a steel manufacturing company with about 12 employees. The cost of all my supplies went through the roof, we couldn't raise prices fast enough to keep up with the cost. We started losing customers because they found other companies that were working for nothing to stay a-float. Interest rates went to 22%, great if you had cash in the bank. My business was debt free so it survived, many didn't.

The Reagan Administration entered office in 1981 with an ambitious agendas, advanced five economic/budgetary goals to rebuild America economically and militarily: (1) reduce inflation, (2) deregulate the economy, (3) cut taxes, (4) increase military spending and (5) reduce nondefense spending sufficiently to balance the budget. (Sound like trump) (Add the 35% border tax and deport cheap labor and you end up with ????)

By the summer of 1981, people had difficulty borrowing money for homes and cars, and many business people could not borrow money to invest in growth. Automobile sales declined. The economy went into recession. In 1982 business failures were triple what they were in 1979. Unemployment by the end of 1982 was at 10.8 percent, its highest since the 1930s. In 1982 the economy declined by 2.2 percent growth. The prime interest rate reached 21.5 percent in June.

Add trumps 35% border tax and deport cheap labor and you may end up with 35% interest, depression, stock market crash worst than 1929.
WHAT AM I MISSING????

what's up this morning?
Everything is Friday's news
and then this
Oil Slides After Saudis Suggest Early End To OPEC Deal
by Tyler Durden
Jan 16, 2017 8:21 AM

Following a brief spike overnight (as China intervened in its equity market), crude prices slipped lower, testing towards a $51 handle after Saudi Arabia says OPEC is on track to wrap up its production curbs by the middle of the year, potentially leaving its aim of clearing a global oil glut unfinished.
---
and IB CL doesn't show a test of $51

Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday (1/16/2017) Settlement Times
Friday, January 13, 2017
Normal settlement schedule
Monday, January 16, 2017
Final Settlement at 5 am CT for Eurodollar, 1 Month Eurodollar and Euribor futures
No other CME/CBOT/NYMEX/COMEX settlements occur
CME Europe normal settlement schedule

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, but it’s business as usual for Globex electronic trading and in overseas markets.

Oil, gold and Treasurys futures contracts, among other contracts listed on Globex, all trade electronically during the holiday. The CME trading floors are closed.

Globex trading begins as usual at 6 p.m. Eastern on Sunday and ends at 1 p.m. Eastern on Monday, but with a trade date of Tuesday. Trading will resume at 6 p.m. Eastern on Monday.

U.S. stock markets are closed, and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Sifma has recommended that there be no trading in U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds in the U.S., U.K. and Japan. Currency trading is expected to be light during the North American day. Banks in Europe and Canada are open.

Silvia Ascarelli is a senior news editor for MarketWatch based in New York. You can follow her on Twitter @SilviaAscarelli.

TraderJoe wrote:WHAT AM I MISSING?

Trump warned he will impose a border tax of 35 percent on everything from vehicles imported from abroad to the U.S. market to Zebra skins.

Trump want to deport all 'cheap' labor in the US.

Trump wants to ???????

My take on this, where am I wrong????

Add trumps 35% border tax and deport cheap labor and you may end up with 35% interest, depression, stock market crash worst than 1929.
WHAT AM I MISSING????

Trump's mastery is in negotiation. Trump wrote "the Art of the Deal". He had 11 points in his book.

http://www.inc.com/peter-economy/11-win ... -deal.html

5. Use your leverage

"The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead."

Viewing his platform from the perspective of his book, Trump is negotiating from a position of strength. He may not be seriously intent on implementing his suite of policies. He is more about using leverage to get what he wants. The threat of a border tax can result in better deals for American workers. Once he gets better deals, he pulls back the threat.

I have a decent size short position in JCP I have been building and rolling. I am looking for 3.00 withing a month or two. Also building a short position Tue./Wends in IWM as I expect a decent turn down going into the end of the week. Thinking about longs in TLT as I expect a big short covering rally in the next 10 days.



Good Trades my friends...

TLT 120

The Big picture: Long term is bearish bias, over sold and we got a dead cat bounce right around 120 as expected.on a daily chart, it suggests the dead cat bounce is over for long term trade I would stay in cash if not shorting.I am trading base on my mid term setup so right here is a buy with stop at 120.5

I would post the weekend images,.. but seems I am unable. Message post stalls on image upload. Will try again in couple of hours.

TraderJoe wrote: Add trumps 35% border tax and deport cheap labor and you may end up with 35% interest, depression, stock market crash worst than 1929.
WHAT AM I MISSING????

USDollar keeps climbing.. say another 20-25% or even 30% that 35% border tax will not matter.. as the product will be discounted 25-35% aka 35% border tax = 0-10% in overall price change. USD cleanest dirtiest shirt. EURO's life is very limited, imho.