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soku wrote:i think bulk says if it forms, there is 70% chance to bank 20%+ gain.Cobra wrote:agree, I think we have the same interpretation. I just showed you a smaller 1-2-3. The bigger 1-2-3 on the upside, we have the same view. So let's see whether they work or not. Just from my experiences, they don't work mostly. Maybe I'm used to 80%+ winning rate stuff, around 50% winning rate stuff would make me feel it fails every time. I don't think it has 70% winning rate, really. 60% or 51% winning rate, the most.soku wrote:my interpretation of 1-2-3, (which may not be right)
first it is a reversal pattern. we need to see a main trend and need to spot reversal. then look for higher low or higher high.
in the first chart (scenario 1), i take yesterday high to today's open as main trend. 11:00 today as 1. 1-2-3 is off since 2 didn't make a higher high.
in the 2nd chart, i took today's open to 11:00 as trend. 11-1:00 as counter-trend 1. it is 50% so fibo requirement still meets. 2:00 is a lower high to be qualified as my 2. so i am looking for a break down of 1:00 low as a formation of 1-2-3.
bear in mind. the "trend" itself is corrective. the implosion may not be impressive.
i bet 1 beer, 1-2-3 on my scenario 2 will not form today. spy may very likely be staying at high 129 level and waiting for the debt ceiling vote scheduled on 6:00 today.
I think you lost a beer. this is:soku wrote:i think bulk says if it forms, there is 70% chance to bank 20%+ gain.Cobra wrote:agree, I think we have the same interpretation. I just showed you a smaller 1-2-3. The bigger 1-2-3 on the upside, we have the same view. So let's see whether they work or not. Just from my experiences, they don't work mostly. Maybe I'm used to 80%+ winning rate stuff, around 50% winning rate stuff would make me feel it fails every time. I don't think it has 70% winning rate, really. 60% or 51% winning rate, the most.soku wrote:my interpretation of 1-2-3, (which may not be right)
first it is a reversal pattern. we need to see a main trend and need to spot reversal. then look for higher low or higher high.
in the first chart (scenario 1), i take yesterday high to today's open as main trend. 11:00 today as 1. 1-2-3 is off since 2 didn't make a higher high.
in the 2nd chart, i took today's open to 11:00 as trend. 11-1:00 as counter-trend 1. it is 50% so fibo requirement still meets. 2:00 is a lower high to be qualified as my 2. so i am looking for a break down of 1:00 low as a formation of 1-2-3.
bear in mind. the "trend" itself is corrective. the implosion may not be impressive.
i bet 1 beer, 1-2-3 on my scenario 2 will not form today. spy may very likely be staying at high 129 level and waiting for the debt ceiling vote scheduled on 6:00 today.
BullBear52x wrote:Man....second mortgage your house for good time never good idea. people are so worried on their own lost like 401K retirement and benefits, so it's OK to go all out in debt? anyways just tired of hearing this debt politic talk. peace and cheers!Tabby wrote:Why Obama?99er wrote:Go Get'em Karl
The House controls the purse strings. Period. If you don't like that it's just tough crap - that's The Constitution and there isn't a thing you can do about it. The House is saying no more credit - we will live within our means.
Your two choices, and President Obama's, are to either:
Accept this and live within it. You then have a few months to negotiate exactly how you're going to get there and what mix of tax increases and cuts will take place. Yes, it will suck. Sorry. The math is what it is. See the chart below.
Keep playing your damn Senatorial and "Kingship" imperial games. Your time to whine expires Tuesday if you do that, because you cannot force The House to pass anything, and if there's no bill then there's no more debt. Period, end of discussion, full stop, the budget is balanced immediately by default.
Pick one Dingy Harry and the rest of your Senatorial clowncar brigade. Ditto for you Obama. There ain't jack and crap you do about it - these are the facts, and you can either agree to a balanced budget that is negotiated within the next few months or you get one right now.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=190985
Let’s start from the beginning. Raising the debt ceiling is a routine legislative matter. The debt ceiling was raised 18 times under Ronald Reagan; nine times under George H. W. Bush; six times under Bill Clinton; and seven times under George W. Bush. Sometimes the opposition party will use the occasion to score some political points.
Thanks for all these previous presidents who left him presents.
well it seems my beer is walking backCobra wrote:I think you lost a beer. this is:soku wrote: i bet 1 beer, 1-2-3 on my scenario 2 will not form today. spy may very likely be staying at high 129 level and waiting for the debt ceiling vote scheduled on 6:00 today.
1. 1-2-3 breakdown.
2. descending triangle breakdown.
I don't care confirm or no confirm, you own me a beer.
you own me the beer!soku wrote:well it seems my beer is walking backCobra wrote:I think you lost a beer. this is:soku wrote: i bet 1 beer, 1-2-3 on my scenario 2 will not form today. spy may very likely be staying at high 129 level and waiting for the debt ceiling vote scheduled on 6:00 today.
1. 1-2-3 breakdown.
2. descending triangle breakdown.
I don't care confirm or no confirm, you own me a beer.
just some overshooting which should always be ignored.
fortunately i didn't trade
soku wrote:well it seems my beer is walking backCobra wrote:I think you lost a beer. this is:soku wrote: i bet 1 beer, 1-2-3 on my scenario 2 will not form today. spy may very likely be staying at high 129 level and waiting for the debt ceiling vote scheduled on 6:00 today.
1. 1-2-3 breakdown.
2. descending triangle breakdown.
I don't care confirm or no confirm, you own me a beer.
just some overshooting which should always be ignored.
fortunately i didn't trade
Cobra wrote:soku wrote:well it seems my beer is walking backCobra wrote:I think you lost a beer. this is:soku wrote: i bet 1 beer, 1-2-3 on my scenario 2 will not form today. spy may very likely be staying at high 129 level and waiting for the debt ceiling vote scheduled on 6:00 today.
1. 1-2-3 breakdown.
2. descending triangle breakdown.
I don't care confirm or no confirm, you own me a beer.
just some overshooting which should always be ignored.
fortunately i didn't trade
haha, close below the line, still counts as breakdown, my beer!
Thanks.SigmaEcho wrote:
for your efforts. i'll buy you a beer anytime!