Cobra's Market View

Small gap up within yesterday's range, so the gap might be filled. Global ES looks like a consolidation before the next push up so doesn't look bearish at all.

Morning Boss and a top of the mornin to all my Cyber Friends!! : )

Good Morning .
PPI look snot good. chance to metals (silver/gold)?

Good Morning.

So honey...feel better after some time at the beach?
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/es_17.html

Let's go surfing again soon.

Where's the surf?
EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/eurusd_17.html
The Rhine or the Seine.

Good morning traders: Anyone else get decent results from the 50/200sma cross on the 5 min charts. SPY/SSO/BGU are very close to a sell cross signal (short term), depending on today’s action. QQQ crossed yesterday.

[Credit: I got this signal last year from Corey Rosenbloom’s site afraidtotrade.com. He calls it his best low risk/high reward short-term signal. Low risk because he sets the stop just on the other side of the 200sma (with a bit of wiggle room). High reward because it can often really pop.]

I think Corey uses 50ema / 200sma; I use the 50sma / 200sma.

Sometimes it’s just good for a scalp, but if you do a look-back at the last few days of the 5 min charts you can see the last cross (buy) signal was 10-11 August, which caught the nice pop. Prior to that was the sell cross on 25 July, which caught the entire monster move down.

PS: This is not to be confused with the “golden cross” which is slower, or the “death cross” of 50/200dma which is much longer term.

I call this the “Corey Cross” for lack of a proper name.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSO&p= ... listNum=15

Today's Economic Calendar
MBA Mortgage Applications Index 4.1%, purchases index -9.1%, refinancing index 8.0% and the 30yr FRM decreased from 4.37% to 4.32%.

8.30 Producer Price Index (est 0.1% m/m, 7.1% y/y)
Core PPI (est 0.2% m/m, 2.3% y/y)
10.30 DOE Inventory Data
Crude Oil - est -500k, last week -5,225k
Gasoline - est -1,175k, last week -1,588k
Distillate - est 550k, last week -737k
Refinery Utilization - est -0.30%, last week 0.70%
1.20 Fed’s Fisher Speaks at Event in Midland, Texas

the open.

GM, Nice, only take 3 times to do it this time.

Watch DMA 377 at 1211.20. If it get's broken SPX is a buy, if SPX stays below this MA is only resistance...

testing yesterday's high, key time.

uempel wrote:Watch DMA 377 at 1211.20. If it get's broken SPX is a buy, if SPX stays below this MA is only resistance...

SPX2.png

looks like a tough resistance to me according to your chart since there's a green line resistance there.

breakout, the rising wedge resistance is the next target.

Where the money from? recent interventions, DBV here.

Surf's up.
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_17.html

Hi Cobra, 1st post here! Been slowly observing your intraday thread and finally registered!
U seem legit!

Anyways, have some of u guys noticed that some indicies have closed back above their H+S neckline already? Look at the AMEX Composite or Nasdaq 100, S&P500 O-Strip charts.... They closed 2 days above it!
What do u guys make of that?

Hi guys, this is how the Nasdaq looks. No real H&S pattern as the right shoulder was a new high. But for me the key s/r level is 2200 - and we are through at 2208 at the time of writing. The next challenge is to break back into the middle channel. I expect it will ultimately do battle with the 200 MA for cyclical bull continuation or new bear (break through or repelled). If the former then the early August prints will go down as a panic-induced fake out.

next Gap area 125

BullBear52x wrote:next Gap area 125

do u think we will fill the gap above the 125 area? 123-125 is my target area... And im skeptical that we will rally that far.... though ive been holding UPRO for quite a few days now....

heavenskrow wrote:Hi Cobra, 1st post here! Been slowly observing your intraday thread and finally registered!
U seem legit!

Anyways, have some of u guys noticed that some indicies have closed back above their H+S neckline already? Look at the AMEX Composite or Nasdaq 100, S&P500 O-Strip charts.... They closed 2 days above it!
What do u guys make of that?

Dow Utilities is really strong as well. Signals to me that it's a "stock picker's market" at the moment. AAPL is easy example. Wasn't hit nearly as hard as market and will likely take out it's all-time highs soon. For DJ-15 people want yield, way better there than in bonds right now. You have solid earnings vs. macro-economic concerns and really history proves the market cares more about the earnings...hence why the stock market tops so late heading into recessions.

I got head faked out of my long yesterday by the HFT machines, which just shows I'm a bad human. At least I was holding/buying on Fed Day when the HFT machines did their thing then.