Cobra's Market View

Gap up along the yesterday's high so hard to guess whether we'll have a trend day or boring day. Global ES only proves what I said last night, SO FAR, the rebound is the weakest because the 3 pushes we have obviously are overlapping, this NORMALLY doesn't look like a start of a new bull. You also can compare the rebound from 09/06 to 09/07, it was a straight up, look at what we have now, it's obvious, isn't it?

Good Morning.

So honey...are you reviewing your phrase book?
EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/eurusd_14.html

"Ou est le W.C.?"

ES
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/es_14.html

"Ou est le bus?"

99er wrote:Good Morning.

So honey...are you reviewing your phrase book?
EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/eurusd_14.html

"Ou est le W.C.?"

Hooney, hooney... "Ou sont les W.C.?"

Bookoo resistance here, fellas!

I did not think that they would gap above my IWM “target/reversal”, in the present market conditions…but they will!
Yes, we can!

Cobra wrote:Gap up along the yesterday's high so hard to guess whether we'll have a trend day or boring day. Global ES only proves what I said last night, SO FAR, the rebound is the weakest because the 3 pushes we have obviously are overlapping, this NORMALLY doesn't look like a start of a new bull. You also can compare the rebound from 09/06 to 09/07, it was a straight up, look at what we have now, it's obvious, isn't it?

While it may not be a new "bull" trend, it may be the beginning of a sideways consolidation with several months of range trading in which we do not take out the low established in August. A new "bull" trend would then take off from the final low in that sideways trend from about this same level. Given the negative sentiment, this seems an even odds possibility against the probability of a new low before the end of the year.

Anyone know what happened to Shankystechblog?

Cobra wrote:Gap up along the yesterday's high so hard to guess whether we'll have a trend day or boring day. Global ES only proves what I said last night, SO FAR, the rebound is the weakest because the 3 pushes we have obviously are overlapping, this NORMALLY doesn't look like a start of a new bull. You also can compare the rebound from 09/06 to 09/07, it was a straight up, look at what we have now, it's obvious, isn't it?

I couldn't agree with you more, cobra. But, I still think the bulls will take a shot at the 1185 gap before they give up. I'm looking for some selling at the bell to close any gap made this morning and then a push up to at least challenge the overnight high on the ES at 1176ish and only a few points more to get to 1185 (cash). Then, we'll see if the bears want to wake up again --- or if they want to suffer a squeeze up higher.

Just my thoughts.....after seeing zero conviction on the "dark" side after the 830 eco data.

Today's Economic Calendar
8.30 PPI (est. -0.1% m/m, 6.4% y/y)

Core PPI (est 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y)

Retail sales (0.3% m/m)

Retail sales ex autos (0.4% m/m)

Core retail sales (0.4% m/m)

10.00 Business inventories (0.6% m/m)

10.30 DOE Inventory Data
Crude Oil – est -3,000k, last week -3,963k

Gasoline – est -500k, last week 199k

Distillate – est 700k, last week 709k
Refinery Utilization – est -0.85%, last week -0.20%

12.00 Merkel and Sarkozy’s call with Papandreou

Morning all.

Interesting…. now that I’m fixating on short interest implications, I find the folks over at zero reporting after the close yest a potential “Epic Squeeze” in BAC because of their high short interst. In classic Tyler hyperbole, he opines that BAC is now “...overdue for another massive ripfest [rally] before it's lights out [decline]. Guaranteed...”

You gotta love him, even if you hate him.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-shor ... ica-shares

If you can’t handle Tyler, here’s a direct link to the NYSE short report released YESTERDAY after close (I erroneously expected it due on 15th).

http://www.nyse.com/press/1315833921149.html

Here is an example of the CDS market frontrunning an event -- pricing a 98% probability of a Greek default -- which equities are ignoring.

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/econom ... pdate.html

The last time equities ignored such signals was back in 2008 which Paulson was too happy to take advantage of.

Just wanted to pop in and introduce myself. While I don't day trade, I enjoy your nightly and intra-day work Cobra. It has saved me from taking a position near reversals that I would not have seen otherwise. Many thanks.

Ciao.

Tutti

AUDJPY
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/audjpy_14.html

"Ou est le risk?"

Mongoose wrote:Here is an example of the CDS market frontrunning an event -- pricing a 98% probability of a Greek default -- which equities are ignoring.

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/econom ... pdate.html

The last time equities ignored such signals was back in 2008 which Paulson was too happy to take advantage of.

Don't you know that the bond market is always wrong.......

Cobra wrote:Gap up along the yesterday's high so hard to guess whether we'll have a trend day or boring day. Global ES only proves what I said last night, SO FAR, the rebound is the weakest because the 3 pushes we have obviously are overlapping, this NORMALLY doesn't look like a start of a new bull. You also can compare the rebound from 09/06 to 09/07, it was a straight up, look at what we have now, it's obvious, isn't it?

I think the /ES reacts to what Asian and European markets are doing, so I don't think the overlapping applies at all to the cash market. But if you believe China leads (it topped in April before the S&P) then yes we need China to breakout before a new Bull can be called. The EOD reversal in China was nice and Europe is looking good, but we still have a long way to go....

stucap wrote:

Mongoose wrote:Here is an example of the CDS market frontrunning an event -- pricing a 98% probability of a Greek default -- which equities are ignoring.

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/econom ... pdate.html

The last time equities ignored such signals was back in 2008 which Paulson was too happy to take advantage of.

Don't you know that the bond market is always wrong.......

Tell that to Bill Gross.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecch ... -since-95/

the open.

real time e-mini S&P, could be bullish,
go figure, this chart includes over night

Copper not looking too good this morning.