Cobra's Market View

Hey, ladies and buys, let's vote again: Was the Oct 4 low the low for the October?

Hey I was the first to vote ! How cool is that !

Cobra wrote:Hey, ladies and buys, let's vote again: Was the Oct 4 low the low for the October?

Cobra, may be i am getting too paranoid here. But do you think there could be a way these polls (not just here, anywhere), could be either a) worded or b) created in such a way that folks taking the poll can easily distinguish between, WANT and BELIEVE. I mean, if 90% say answer "low was not in" and yet only 10% of that group believes that low will be tested as the rest want it because of variety of reasons including holding a trapped short position, then the picture that we get is not 100% accurate.

As i said, i may be taking this poll thing too far. But since you are always open to suggestions and you yourself play around with such things and tweak them a lot, i thot of putting it forth. If others have any ideas around it, please chime in.

Btw, wheres uempel. Hez missing from all the action, hope hez doing well.

jason_70 wrote:

Cobra wrote:Hey, ladies and buys, let's vote again: Was the Oct 4 low the low for the October?

Cobra, may be i am getting too paranoid here. But do you think there could be a way these polls (not just here, anywhere), could be either a) worded or b) created in such a way that folks taking the poll can easily distinguish between, WANT and BELIEVE. I mean, if 90% say answer "low was not in" and yet only 10% of that group believes that low will be tested as the rest want it because of variety of reasons including holding a trapped short position, then the picture that we get is not 100% accurate.

As i said, i may be taking this poll thing too far. But since you are always open to suggestions and you yourself play around with such things and tweak them a lot, i thot of putting it forth. If others have any ideas around it, please chime in.

Btw, wheres uempel. Hez missing from all the action, hope hez doing well.

Uempel is on his Mountain home, relaxing now.

No! How could it?

jason_70 wrote:

Cobra wrote:Hey, ladies and buys, let's vote again: Was the Oct 4 low the low for the October?

Btw, wheres uempel. Hez missing from all the action, hope hez doing well.

Thanks for asking Jason, very thoughtful. I guess you know that trading can be quite stressful. Doesn't improve trading results when red lights are flashing. I then tend to drive up to a mountain hideaway which we built a few years ago. No internet access up there, sole activities are chopping wood for the stove, clipping trees, cooking and reading. And of course sleeping - I manage to sleep 12 hours a night up there, back in the city it's 5 or 6.

Cobra also needs a mountain hideaway. Mind and soul have to be switched off from time to time.

Not unless or until Greece is greased

This seems like a remarkably hard question because of the very interesting echo to 2008. Seems like and equally fair question might be are we close to a short term high. ZH reported short interest is at high equal to oct 09, and BAC seems deeply fooked - financials diverged most of the day during the rally and only rebounded on cue with the late afternoon algo pump. Im a newb, but it sure looks like a punishing is brewing. If the Oct 4 low ends up the low for the month its hard to see how it holds through early Nov. But the world is crazy right now so maybe only crazy rules apply.

We all now Greece will default eventually. Then there is China.
End of October is still far away. More lows to come.

uempel wrote:

jason_70 wrote:

Cobra wrote:Hey, ladies and buys, let's vote again: Was the Oct 4 low the low for the October?

Btw, wheres uempel. Hez missing from all the action, hope hez doing well.

Thanks for asking Jason, very thoughtful. I guess you know that trading can be quite stressful. Doesn't improve trading results when red lights are flashing. I then tend to drive up to a mountain hideaway which we built a few years ago. No internet access up there, sole activities are chopping wood for the stove, clipping trees, cooking and reading. And of course sleeping - I manage to sleep 12 hours a night up there, back in the city it's 5 or 6.

Cobra also needs a mountain hideaway. Mind and soul have to be switched off from time to time.

Peaceful sleep is so deprived these days. I am glad you are getting some. I dont even recall when was the last time i slept without being disturbed either by myself or the thot that 2morrow market will go against me, yet another time.
Ne ways, yes, i also feel cobra must go take a hike for a week or so. You need to get out of the daily routine once in a while to get back your ownself.

How could I change my vote?

Voted No Way low is in. Just check out the monthly charts. They are NOT bullish. Neither is the weekly ... and this run-up this week was just too much, too fast on too weak news. Typical rip bears face off contra-trend rally only. Also, today oscillators are showing WAY overbought ... and we are at the tippy-top of trendlines. Hoping for a gap-up tomorrow, so I can short it all the way down. As our awesome Cobra would say, "That's my evil plan." Love ya, Cobra!

little piggy wrote:How could I change my vote?

Not allowed to change.

Is the poll closed already?

I think we are safe for October but not the final low.

There is just way too much risk out there from Europe and the US to make me believe we are going back to the highs of the year.

The wall of worry look like a 90 degree cliff to me.

No the low isn't in were in a bull cycle , and were enjoying a very common sharp corrective rally or short squeeze.

I like all your charts, but I hope you'll look at a monthly global dow , ($GDOW) . The Global Dow is also favoured on Danerics elliot wave blog, http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

The global dow has already broken down through all bollinger band supports, and of course is rallying with all index's presently . $GDOW is presently at 1850 with middle bollinger band resistance around 2000, and it isn't oversold by my eye. I'm not saying I'm a bull here, but I'm certainly sitting back to see if I get a good short entry for a 2 week swing, and it's not there for me . We can still go up a lot here, or crash a lot , I don't see a swing trade , near term we have lot's of room before a tell on what's next . I see a confirmed bear cycle that isn't over and normally would give some good swings for a careful trader.
I have also used the $ted on daily time frames with stockcharts, (ted spread), it seems locked on overbought, which is because crisis is euro based, or were going to really crash badly for awhile???? Normally $ted flashes great short and long swings prior to august correction anyway.
good trading