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02/01/2019 Live Update

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Cobra
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02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

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no idea up or down from here. when not sure, always give bulls more credit.
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Cobra
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

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JFR
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by JFR »

The market is opening where it left off yesterday. Breakout from the range that began on January 18. Will it hold? It might, but aside from all the giants buying, I think it is suspect. It wants to go up for sure.

2019-02-01_0627.png
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JFR
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by JFR »

NQ opens gap down.

2019-02-01_0631.png
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JFR
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by JFR »

INTC and V having a nice run.

2019-02-01_0644.png
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JFR
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by JFR »

Testing the waters low. Back later ...

2019-02-01_0651.png
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Cobra
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


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wxtrader001
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by wxtrader001 »

today will be an up trend day,buy dip is the only thing
brokebybernacke2
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by brokebybernacke2 »

wxtrader001 wrote:today will be an up trend day,buy dip is the only thing
careful, rug has 2 hands on it, any day now be a decent tug....
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Cobra
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

sharp up from here then it's an uptrend day which I find hard to believe though.
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Trades with cats
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Bradley composite.png
from Greg the Analyst on Twitter today

He says "Going back to my dead-cat bounce move. I analysed ALL recessions and stock market declines since 1900... Most recessions created bounce from 0.5 or 0.618..., but I found 2 recessions 1973 & 1937 which jumped to 0.382. Same time massive record dump in commodities yesterday."

I think 1937 is Ray Dalio's current analog.
We are not out of the woods and the Fed caving shows how bad things are.
Also this January bounce had net outflows from the market. This will be resolved, but not quickly. :D
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Cobra
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

so now it's clearly a range day. might rebound all the way to the day high.
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

January flows:
$10.55 billion in OUTFLOWS from SPY
$3.4 billion in OUTFLOWS from IWM
And on the inflow side, looks like funds are flowing into emerging markets and various bond ETFs
21flows.png.png
Explain that one bulls

BAC and EPFR and zh opine that it may be “…All Just One Giant Short Squeeze… "
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02- ... to+zero%29
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

And this is the aggregate FLOW that includes the December drop AND the January rally
21flow dec jan.png.png
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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Dumb question: When you buy to cover your short, doesn’t that show up as a buy/inflow ??
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
q2model
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by q2model »

Al_Dente wrote:Dumb question: When you buy to cover your short, doesn’t that show up as a buy/inflow ??
Dumber question: how is inflow calculated? When a share is traded, it is sold and bought. There is no inflow, net is zero. When money comes in, do company issue more shares? I never figure out how this works. :-(
Trades with cats
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

This is Northman Trading also banging the drum (in an elegant way) that we are in the classic dead cat bounce as seen in the last two recessions. So I stick with this limit because in the last two the Fed was thinking pretty close to the way they are now.
https://northmantrader.com/2019/02/01/bull-trap/

Just to throw wood on the fire futures markets are now betting on a Fed rate cut in the 4th quarter. The last four initial rate cuts were followed by recessions within 3 months. So Merry Christmas. :twisted: :lol: :lol: :lol:
K447
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by K447 »

q2model wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:Dumb question: When you buy to cover your short, doesn’t that show up as a buy/inflow ??
Dumber question: how is inflow calculated? When a share is traded, it is sold and bought. There is no inflow, net is zero. When money comes in, do company issue more shares? I never figure out how this works. :-(
ETF units are not stocks.

When money comes in more ETF units can be created. When money is withdrawn (redemption) ETF units can be ‘uncreated’.

Hand money to ETF, they create more units and go buy the stuff in that ETF. Demand your ETF money back, they sell the contents and send the money to you, and also shrinking the number of units still in that ETF.

Roughly translated, that explanation is.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/01/2019 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

q2model wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:Dumb question: When you buy to cover your short, doesn’t that show up as a buy/inflow ??
Dumber question: how is inflow calculated? When a share is traded, it is sold and bought. There is no inflow, net is zero. When money comes in, do company issue more shares? I never figure out how this works. :-(
go figure; i can't either
here is the FLOW link:
https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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