Cobra's Market View

Hey, guys, let's vote again: Was the Oct 4 low the low for the October? Maybe you have a 3rd thought this time?

The low was in, but the current level should be retested, if we have a continuation run or a second leg up after a setback.

should also be a poll for if you've changed your vote over the past three polls!

thanks for the great forum Cobra. First post here, hope to contribute often

RZRsharp wrote:should also be a poll for if you've changed your vote over the past three polls!

thanks for the great forum Cobra. First post here, hope to contribute often

Right, that's a good idea. Thanks and welcome aboard!

someone mentioned early, poll by average and poll by professional will not be same (assume professionals have better market understanding).

I noticed, even "professional" (image voters from this forum are "professional"), but their poll seems still a reverse indicator.

poll of 10/07, difference was 75 (=95-20). bear-biased. market had proved "most voters" against the market at that time (voter bearish while market bullish)
poll of 10/12, difference reduced to only four (4) (=53-49). market still up up up, some bears gave up. less voter bearish. bear-bull close to balanced.
poll of 10/21 (latest one), the smallest difference, 3 (=19-16, but not closed yet). bear-bull closer. quite a few bears joined bulls. the party going-on.

at this point, I really guess, time is due for a correction. since most of bears are turned into bulls. when bears getting less and less, the bull market ends.

Carl Swenlin believes the low is in.
Caution: Carl Swenlin's 30 years experience was wrong in 2010.

Yes. The low was in for the October.

Voted "No way". The monthly chart MACD is below zero. Also, we never hit the target low expected when you measure the bear flag that was created in August. Also, we never experienced "capitulation" yet on heavy, heavy selling. Additionally, there is key support in the 1,000 area that is certain to be retested and that area equals the measured move expected from the August bear flag. Lastly, King Cobra has presented additional evidences for a lower-low.

The low isn't in historically , but on lower percentages, the low was in !
Another thing to think about for young traders , (not your age, your experience), charts since 1988 are wild, and probably will continue wild unless we crash like 1929 . Having said that, breaking the rules on lower low was more common during stable growth, eg., hitting lower bollinger band , m.a.s on month and week time frames. Watching option trader sentiment for a clue works better in my research during volatile times, but is only good for an early indicator during confirmed steady bull cycles. Right now we are so close to continuing on in a bull move I'm shocked in to hanging back and just watching. I've had long term buy signals on the sox and russell , NYA hasn't confirmed and rules for me . NYA isn't has more room to rally before any resistance test I take seriously and is lagging in my opinion and telling us , market is weak and not done correcting.

scratching my head here, Rob

I just voted. I think that the low is likely in for OCTOBER. What happens in November remains to be seen...