Cobra's Market View

This market is unbelievably strong, rising on rumor even proven non-existing. I can sense extreme frustration among guys in the day trade form. So let's vote to say if indeed the sentiments are extreme or still bears have long way to go (suffer)!

The bullish case:
Dividends of emerging markets & Europe are very attractive, twice better than the S&P. Wanna mess with bonds?
Obamacare may be ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court (of Kangaroos).
Very good chance Obama will not get re-elected.
Oil is not a problem if the oil companies are let loose by Obama & the EPA.
etc

Shafa... voted...

Bear. Europe will be the trigger for some very bad months in 2012.

I'm neither bear nor bull, I change positions according to market action. Next move could be either 1240 - 1270/85, or 1240 - 1220/1200. But as long as 1220/1200 holds I'm bullishly biased.

Cobra, I have voted. But I want make an amendment
We all know that fundamentally this market should be a bear market but I'm a bull as long as you're still holding a long position

uempel wrote:I'm neither bear nor bull, I change positions according to market action. Next move could be either 1240 - 1270/85, or 1240 - 1220/1200. But as long as 1220/1200 holds I'm bullishly biased.

Indeed! To realize the direction of the wind is the key to navigate through the vast oceans!

Was today another day like Sept. 28 2010 or Oct. 4 2010 where a floor was put in under the market?

The patterns are different, but the fractals are basically the same (as is the backtest of the neckline).

I really don't know, so I can't vote.

I would say the frustration is not nearing an end. TZA gave two opportunities to get out around 41 this last week. When the third time comes around I suspect many will take the opportunity to get out and then it will take off!..We are a long way from 41 so the pain continues.

This is my view,
US market since the low of 2003 is not stock market ( forget about earnings, Economy, Export, GDP, etc... ) it is forex related market, If you agree with that view, then there is NO LONG TERM TREND IN FOREX .it is a huge trading range.
Now, if you also agree with that, then you have to expect what the price do usually in trading range. Let me give an example ( there are many notes but I will mention some ):
- Price love to hit stops at extreams.
- price move fast with a pattern of 3 major legs ( at least one of them large and strong ).
- the 3 legs mostly ( not always ) have a correction of flat and very boring in time and action.
- most signals in the long side are correct specially when price below the mid point of the range.
- the traditional TA signals will have an average on 70% to be correct which is low.
- The important area that price spent alote of time before will have 50 - 50 chance to win ( not good rate )
- when in flat action, price spend at least 2/3 of the time that been spent in the strong move for the same leg.
- A very reliable and strong signal will appears near the bottom of the range ( sell signal ) and the top of the range ( buy signals ) but they are false. If you want to studay Bulls/Bears trap, then check any bottom ot top in any trading range because they always perfect for study.
- be very carful when flat pattern appears because it is the place where dealers make there monye best, so don't take direction until it is clear. ( note: dealers make most of the minye in flat actions and when vix below 18 )

bottom line, I think US market will stay in this range for years and TA and ECO. analysis will be lost time by time... and if you know how to trade it and have a strategy ( I have mine ) then you will be soon in your Yacht

uempel wrote:I'm neither bear nor bull, I change positions according to market action. .

i agree. we need an option for the objective trade that is neither perma bull nor bear.

GreedyKojiro wrote:To realize the direction of the wind is the key to navigate through the vast oceans!

That wind typically changes on me.

It look's that market want's to move higher.

chart looks bullish, but might trade as bear at this level

swing trade.
At this time, bearish.