Cobra's Market View

First of all, thank you for all those attending the weekend watering session. I see it as a very good sign that more and more people treat the forum as an important resource for discussion now which is my original purpose. We need share our idea to make sure we see every aspect of the market or at least somewhere to ease our nervousness because in the forum you can always find someone having the same idea. You Earth people, first of all, basically, are social animals, by herding together, cooperating together, you finally grow as the dominant species of the planet Earth.

Small gap down within the Friday's range, so chances are the gap will be filled. The Global ES looks good as it tested the Friday's low the 2nd time and rebounded strongly forming a potential double bottom, so chances are high that bulls might launch another round of attack from here despite according to the statistics, today shall close in red.

Good Morning.

Gee honey...what is scheisse-merde-dreck?
EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/eurusd_07.html

Merkozy speaking Italian?

good morning

expecting high volatility.

Oh...that reminds me...breakfast is ready.
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/es_07.html

Wieners and toast.

i see us going down this week as well, the greeks will finally put a damper to the bulls rampage, temporarily anyway.
here's the chart/roadmap for anyone interested:

http://standardpoor.wordpress.com/

standard_and_poor wrote:i see us going down this week as well, the greeks will finally put a damper to the bulls rampage, temporarily anyway.
here's the chart/roadmap for anyone interested:

http://standardpoor.wordpress/

Your link is not working.

thanks almo99, i forgot the .com and my coffee.

Good morning
11/5/11 “Berkshire Earnings Decline 24% on Derivatives”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... tives.html

Thoughts on this week.

http://atruecontrarian.blogspot.com/201 ... -back.html

Bloomberg now: “JEF cut $2.2 bil of European soverign debt exposure…”
Folks, the JEF fiasco is really worth watching/studying (later). Their disclosure last week was UNPRECEDENTED. We never see that kind of disclosure from a broker/dealer; they only report what they have to by law, they NEVER lift the kimono. JEF is fighting for its life, institutional accounts fleeing (they remember how their client funds were locked up for many months post Lehman and Bear). Perhaps JEF can make a comeback, but very hard to do after one cockroach is spotted.

PAGING XFRADNEX: thank u for keeping us posted on the “short” story…brokerages doling out 100-share-lots of shorts, so there are enough to go around. Please SHOUT when they reopen the floodgates and allow shorts of 1000 shares or more. And if/when they allow more shorts, you might consider covering …. Wall St. eats its own… don’t be lunch.

These are JEFs disclosures
http://www.jefferies.com/cositemgr.pl/h ... ress.shtml
http://www.jefferies.com/cositemgr.pl/h ... ress.shtml
this link courtesy Xfradnex Friday, “confirming” client exodus, and more
http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/03/markets ... ahoo_quote
This great reuters story translates the disclosures into English
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/ ... ompanyNews
this is Saturday zh translation, and their relentless search for more cockroaches
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eagerly-a ... ure-update
and this zh fresh this morn
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/italian-y ... ore-stress
For Xfradnex: Here are Form 4 filings by LUK
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php ... ge=7889254
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php ... ge=7889237
PS: Xfradnex: what link r u using for insider trades?
PSS: Very sad 2 see one of the last of the “independents” taken down. JEF is about 2% the size of GS. Squids circling, waiting to feast on the carrion. Full disclosure: I cannot short JEF, it just makes me ill, and when I trade on emotion I make mistakes.

I think 1257 is a very significant number It is flat for the year. I am watching to see if it is going to be used as support or resistance in the next few days.

So honey...what does Dr. Copper suggest?
HG http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/copper_07.html

"Nice day for a drive."

seems like every morning when futures are down hard they recover everything between 4:00 and 6:00

the open.

vix not confirming

Same pattern , same story, same price action in last 3 trading days SO FAR ...

so far the current consolidation area looks really good, likely to blast up.

I did some back tracing analysis with daily Eler signals Close to Close, High to High, Low to Low on the S&P. I did a 7 point match(green, red, blue) for the last 3 days. I found 4 date matches over the last 10,000 days. The results below are for what happened the day after. All had good negative OL swings . Two had 0 OHs. Two dates had significant market drops within 5 days. The last date, 8/25/11 , continued an uptrend, but had a good OL swing.
AttachmentsUntitled.png (8.3 KiB) Viewed 76 times

remember, this chart is still valid. by 10am ET if bulls cannot exceed tinted area marked by 4, this'll be the weakest push up since 1,2,3,4, because it takes longer and longer time to push up of the same size.

Got into tvix friday AH 49.75. We'll see what the week brings.