Cobra's Market View

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no idea up or down from here. it's in a range.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/08 ... ay-update/

On a plane
PBars are pretty apparent from last week and this morning
GLTA

it's morning hourly filled black bar.

watch out
press conference was delayed, now supposed to start at 10:30 ET

VIX is 21

presser
https://go.cnn.com/?stream=cnn%3Fsr

Time to close the gap?

Watching this trend line....

Going sideways in a very small channel....

Last bounce stopped at VWAP at 10 Eastern. Makes me expect a quiet day when VWAP is significant. I assume many are waiting for a US open hours re-test of the overnight opening lows. My guess is after London/Frankfurt goes home. Unless something else happens at the G-7 involving a cell phone.

No no, can't be true, price action trying to go soft at VWAP again. This is the time of day when we are supposed to rally into the Euro time zone close.

so it's obviously a range day.

It's BachNut time again...

The NYMO cycle is UP.
The shake and bake continues.

Last week, we had a bearish price divergence with NYMO getting positive but price failing to make higher highs.
With Friday's whack job, we may see a bullish NYMO divergence in the days ahead if price breaks the early August low.
It is also plausible that the up cycle is done, and NYMO is starting a fresh down cycle. I don't think so, but time will tell.

Pricewise, the middle keltner has been providing durable resistance for the last few weeks.
The 200 day MA is within 20 handles of the August 5th low and looms as support.
I imagine the shake and bake will end soon (after Labor Day?).
Given what NYMO is doing, I am inclined to be prepared for a third (and final?) push up from the December low to test the ATH.
That said, this shake and bake could be a consolidation/bear flag that will break down in due course.
I haven't a clue, but the action around the 200 day MA could clarify.

I am flat. I did try a small long SPX last week. Got off a scale and then bailed on Friday net down a few peanuts.
Until the shake and bake ends, nimble is the word.
No set-up pending at the moment.

TICKs haven't gone above their MA lines yet....

Trend line broken up, at least we're not going to fall out of bed....yet....

Riding the short term trend line up into the close.
My guess is still for a retest of Friday and Sundays low.

Trades with cats wrote:

ES 09-19 (2000 Tick) _ ES 09-19 (2000 Tick) 2019_08_26 (9_26_50 AM).png

Riding the short term trend line up into the close.
My guess is still for a retest of Friday and Sundays low.

TWC, I'm keeping an eye on SPXS just in case that happens!!
Trying not to front run it though!!