Cobra's Market View

Good Morning.

Thought I would re-do the RUT chart this morning and the scribble below is the result. In the background is a gray grid drawn to give an overall sense of general direction which I see as down. Note the Bat (yellow) to the right which I expect to extend into the area bounded by the two red lines. The higher it goes the better for Bears as this move would complete the last leg up of a bearish Gartley Pattern (not drawn yet). The price action provides enough clues already to suggest a Wolfe Wave is forming (numbers 1-6) and you can follow the purple line to the target price level.

RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/rut_12.html

Will be back later. Have a great weekend!

Good weekend to ya'll. Just a couple of FX charts for you guys. I think AUD/JPY looks weaker than EUR/USD, and with the amount of Euro intervention that's going, inclusive of Italian bond buying, I have to trust the AUD/JPY chart a little more. I'm making the most bullish case I can of all the charts I'm putting up.

Someone pointed out an IHS pattern on AUD/JPY daily. My only argument is that it's too early to confirm that pattern, and a close below the 50% fib retrace or the low from Thursday 78.05 would negate the pattern. I also have to point out that while the EUR/USD was roaring on Thursday, the AUD/JPY diverged significantly and actually ended with a small red doji (doji here is not exactly bearish though). A break above the 38% fib would confirm a possible IHS.

The EUR/USD chart looks a lot more bullish (bad for bears). You can see the major consolidation range that's acting like a huge magnet. It looked like it was about to break above that, and then Wednesday happened. I'm seeing this as either a huge bear trap, or some major bank intervention on the break. Whatever it is, the chart is about to form a C&P bullish pattern. The center line, 38 Fib retrace would be the breakout price. A break below the 23.6 fib would negate the pattern. I think the EUR/USD chart is much too confusing though, as if you had asked me on Tuesday, I would've had money (did have money) on a bullish breakout - as it had touched the top of the range for the 4th time.

The dollar index, which I could only get a daily of on freestockcharts, is also looking less bullish then EUR/USD. Even with Friday's huge move down, we're still in the "box". You can see the solid white line that's acting as extremely strong support.

* Sorry for the tiny ass charts, I haven't figured out how to blow them up yet, but I will correct later this weekend.
** I tried to highlight the bullish cases on the charts - and even with that, I remain confused. With that being said, I'm a pretty frightened bear right now.

Good morning weekend.
Do semiconductors lead the Qs?
On weekly, note the 50sma divergence: QQQ and SMH are above the weekly 50ma, while 50ma is resistance on $SOX… thereby, further note that SOX hasn’t yet grazed the 50% fib, while the hinky ETFs... SMH and QQQ are well above 62% fib retracement.
I also watch SMH for volume cues. Note the volume repeat performance (green circles/arrows)… teeny volume = big bull
Corrections welcomed.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p= ... =248599485

Lets talk channeling this weekend. I think we are officially leaving green light district and now having a go away party with good bye kiss.It's like traffic lights, Green, Yellow, before Red. we are entering Yellow light zone or consolidation phase as the expert would put it.Taking out last Thursday's low before I will say we are in Red light district. so be patience bears not lazy just be patience.Don't get confuse with all this line, or you could if you are day trading.here is my week in review after a failed Bear flag, hope of H&S, a diamond top, and Island reversal were disappointing the bears once again, a break down on Wed + bullish harami on Thursday forming a bottoming pattern, and a gap up Friday confirmed the bullish harami, Now if you are a bull you need to get new shade, the future is so bright you will need to get one.Short term is in consolidation, a trade above 5dma is positive. buy the dip is back on until 125 is broken then my sell will trigger back again. 125.8 and 125.5 is a buyable level, below 125 is sellable intraday per my yellow lines in the sand here

Gee guys...thanks for all the great charts!

Updates

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/copper_12.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/crude_12.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/30y_12.html

Updates

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/gold_12.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/silver_12.html

Back tomorrow...gotta go Occupy The In-Laws.

the market seems caught between support and resistance in the short term. the weekly chart didn't change anything from last week. i'm bearish anywhere below a break back above the broken support trend at 1310 going back to nov 08 (see weekly watering last week). sentiment surveys and rydex flows are way too bullish now regarding europe is already in recession and i still believe the us is heading there as well, although not as severely. so this seems like a wyle e. coyote market to me. we ran off the cliff but still waiting to realize we are in mid air yet.
IWM is facing formidable overhead resistance, with support coming in the 70 level:



the whipsaws we see now are very similar to the bear market rally of 2008, and i expect a similar resolution.

IMO current support and resistance levels for the DJIA, SP 500, and Nasdaq Composite.

http://rocstockmarketlevels.blogspot.co ... /djia.html
http://rocstockmarketlevels.blogspot.co ... p-500.html
http://rocstockmarketlevels.blogspot.co ... osite.html

Good morning, I've enjoyed examining everyone's charts. Here are a couple views to look at, including a close-up of the channel break on a 60 min. chart. It still looks like a top to me, rather than the bullish pennant that some are seeing. Volume has been dropping across the formation over the past 3 weeks that is consistent with a top. An EMA of NYUPV and NYTOT have both been trending down. Additionally, two down days have had their volume spike above the 14 MA of the SPX volume histogram, with 9:1 DNV:UPV days. People say that this can be the sign of a bottom, and that is true, but price has been in an intermediate up trend, not a down trend. I've seen these 9:1 DNV:UPV days at tops too, for example in April 2010.

The weekly view shows that price could approach 1330 and still remain in the secular down trend. Yet, the bear cross (now in the second week) of the Stochastic (10,3,2) has recently led to multi-week declines. In a cyclical bull market this indicator can give a false signal.

Disclosure : long term S&P500. Holding a short term bearish position in SDS.

Here is the updated stock/bond ratio, showing the buy cross signal. Note however, that the last (sell) signal in June was followed by whipsaws. [Caveat: the “rules” apply only to me; they are NOT “standard rules”].
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:$U ... =248495909

Here the offensive/defensive stocks ratio, weekly, which is NOT signaling buy.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLY:XL ... =241153771
[edit] One possible answer re: the defensives
The defensives are now sporting high correlations with all the offensives !! (note that above 0.50 is considered “positive correlation”).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLP&p= ... =248610933

Yo, weekenders:
Did u vote at King Cobra’s new poll “Was the correction over?” (Poll runs till tomorrow, Sunday 6:03 pm)
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=361
That’s another reason why I think our chief snake is mensa, with his polls and careful counting of daily folks on board.
What? U think he keeps track just for his ego?
I find the polls distracting, but I try to answer each and every one honestly, as I surmise that our leader gathers important information from each vote. (?)

Here is a truly delightful (and short) clip summarizing the Wall Street maelstrom, from an old guy in Ireland.
PLEASE NOTE: Parental advisory (language), and “I’m at work” advisory:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/irishman- ... king-chaos

Dow Jones, some heavy volume at the end, pull back time?

Here is one of my “leading indicators” charts, stacked, weekly.
Note how the “leaders” took turns calling tops/bottoms over the last six years, via neg and pos divergences (note especially yield, which called most of the turns).
Yes…what lovely chartS…. point is, I don’t see anything diverging and calling a bottom yet…do you?
Note: this is the first time I’ve used industrial metals as “leading” (so, grain-o-salt there). It is certainly more stable than the bubblicious silver and gold charts, but needs more study as a “tell”.
This is a work in progress; comments encouraged.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =248618588

Here is my gold chart; I’ll try to post a better one later.
http://screencast.com/t/2YLAighY74

Excellent charts everyone. Al, the Irishman is a bit confused and hardly sums up the situation. It's really an abomination that people attempt to pin the blame on "wall street". The people who wield an immense quantity of power and abuse that power need to be targeted. Something far more significant than mass protesting needs to be done in order to resolve this predicament.

Someone on the board mentioned they wanted to short crude yesterday. I think that's a relatively low risk/high reward trade, there's still the political situation regarding hostile tensions in Iran, which likely led to this overbought situation. Another blogger mentioned that if crude falls, the indexes will often follow, and this makes sense. Enjoy your weekend everyone!

PAGING Baron von Channeling52x and Rhight:
I could argue that SPY 60min shows a wonky symmetrical triangle, rather than a pennant or a “red light district”. According to Bulkowski, the symmetrical is a bullish coin toss; and volume trends downward 86% of the time with this “pattern.”
SPY may have more room to run, at least to 127.50-ish to take out all the covering, or a breakout above 128 to scare the bejezzus out of the bears, before turning down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =248626248

PAGING JARBO
U see this zh on GS target for eur/usd also at 1.40; GS is long eur/$.
But zh sees it as contrary indicator (as usual)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-i ... get-eurusd

[Edit:] u MUST have seen this too... MS exact opposite call, short eur/$ ....Sorry, am still catching up from yest zh.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/morgan-st ... 130-target

Hello guys! Great charts and discussions!

I have been asking myself one question yesterday:
Why did AAPL slip while the market was going up? Bad news? Well, not really…Even his Royal Crookedness “The Street” could find only some minor dirt to “explain” the drop: “Apple shares slipped almost 4% this week as investors digested analyst reports that poked some chinks in the company's armor. Cleveland Research lowered its iPad estimate from 14 million to 12 million units, citing "surprise revisions" to supply chain orders and lack of visibility. Ticonderoga Securities also noted negative supply chain data, with sales hitting well below the October monthly average”.
Lack of visibility for AAPL & iPAD noted by "Cleveland Resesrch" and supply problems detected by “Ticonderoga“?! Let’s be serious!

Other little worms also took a bite of AAPL and you can find their stuff everywhere on the internet…Not convincing, but Money Flow dropped abruptly (see charts)!

Then, what? Well...there are other rumors: European banks and hedge funds raising cash because of some well-known reasons. They “take profit” from wherever they can and AAPL is probably the most liquid asset that they own.


I like this second view. If the AAPL drop was not based on its organic weakness, it should bounce soon. Let us look at some charts which, in my opinion, are compatible with this optimistic scenario, without being bullish…yet.

Here are the “Squares of AAPL”. It took some courage to post this chart which is too busy and displays some repulsive colors. But it gave some excellent signals in the past, evident for those who are able to look at it for more than 30 sec.

What does it tell us now?
CAVEAT AAPL BULLS! There is some vacuum under the present price and a first support is only at 377 (support trend line, green). This is significant because of the past history of AAPL as presented on this chart. More specifically: how often did it bounce from the middle of nowhere?… Hmm!
Other support levels on this chart are between the present value and the famous SMA(200)=362.7 that all “talking heads” are bragging about and which is not on my chart.

Prudence is always an essential quality when one trades AAPL.

cougar wrote:Hello guys! Great charts and discussions!

I have been asking myself one question yesterday:
Why did AAPL slip while the market was going up? Bad news? Well, not really…Even his Royal Crookedness “The Street” could find only some minor dirt to “explain” the drop: “Apple shares slipped almost 4% this week as investors digested analyst reports that poked some chinks in the company's armor. Cleveland Research lowered its iPad estimate from 14 million to 12 million units, citing "surprise revisions" to supply chain orders and lack of visibility. Ticonderoga Securities also noted negative supply chain data, with sales hitting well below the October monthly average”.
Lack of visibility for AAPL & iPAD noted by "Cleveland Resesrch" and supply problems detected by “Ticonderoga“?! Let’s be serious!

Other little worms also took a bite of AAPL and you can find their stuff everywhere on the internet…Not convincing, but Money Flow dropped abruptly (see charts)!

Then, what? Well...there are other rumors: European banks and hedge funds raising cash because of some well-known reasons. They “take profit” from wherever they can and AAPL is probably the most liquid asset that they own.


I like this second view. If the AAPL drop was not based on its organic weakness, it should bounce soon. Let us look at some charts which, in my opinion, are compatible with this optimistic scenario, without being bullish…yet.

So r u saying ur bullish bias on the broader market? If hedge funds r raising cash then wouldn't that be bearish?

My bullish view of the aapl divergence is that Apple is acting as a defensive core portfolio position. As a result it's actually beta negative. As a result if the funds r chasin beta, they'd sell apple and by bidu or vmw or etc etc.

The opposing argument is that apple is a leading institutional name. If the institutions, aka smart money is selling, then that could be predicting broader market weakness.

I don't know what's right, these are just thesis I'm thinking about