Cobra's Market View

Trades with cats wrote:...
Still wishing Pelaton would go public ...

Do you mean Peloton (ticker PTON)?

PTON began trading September 2019

K447 wrote:

Trades with cats wrote:...
Still wishing Pelaton would go public ...

Do you mean Peloton (ticker PTON)?

PTON began trading September 2019

WOW,Thanks for that. They are to exercise equipment what We Work is to commercial real estate.

ES 3325 is where the big lump of buy orders are sitting.

Trades with cats wrote:

K447 wrote:

Trades with cats wrote:...
Still wishing Pelaton would go public ...

Do you mean Peloton (ticker PTON)?

PTON began trading September 2019

... what We Work is to commercial real estate.

WeWork never went public.

Before you short PTON (or buy longer term puts), you are looking for a reversal signal. Right now it is forming an inside month. Until it extends above or below the monthly range, all you have are weekly and daily signals.

Weekly is stairstepping up every week since the December low.

Daily bar is currently inside for today. Down tomorow below today's low would be a reversal signal, and below 33.7 also takes the week red.

January month goes red below 28.9

February PTON below 26.89 would be a monthy reversal signal (inside month and down), good all month as long as it stays below.

BTW, PTON IPO price was $29. I wonder when the lockup expires?

PTON. Yes, it's a dog.

Whether to short? It has its fans. Needs to take some serious hits first. Needs a catalyst.

The low might be in or close (could be another test with either higher low or slightly lower low).

PTON has earnings in Feb. After that media disaster over Xmass I certainly would not hold over earnings. Agree it needs proof that it is a joke. Again my concern is that it is way to obvious a short and could become another Tesla.

VWAP and the Mid at around ES 3301, that will be the test.

Cash SPX Fib, bears are on a driving seat still.

TSLA. Losing money. But it is a public market darling. Short at your peril. But its market reckoning will no doubt come. Just imo, by the way.

"...overnight Goldman showed that equity net future positioning of hedge funds has hit an all time high, meaning there is little marginal space left for the smart money to buy."
"...Nomura's two quants confirmed that when it comes to CTAs, they are indeed all in... all major markets we track at + or – “100%” signals across the board which then allows for more leverage to be deployed into the positions" ..."the momentum behind the buying seems to have fizzled out ...Breezy bullishness looks like a bad idea at this point...the situation looks primed for an overdone sell-off in response to even small fluctuations in the market."

WuHan China is now cut off. All buses trains ferry s and airlines stopped. Yea it is contained, NOT.

Tesla will be studied in business school for generations.

Failed to get beyond VWAP. Could get ugly here.

Apple reports next Tuesday after hours. So market will be going up in a week

3rd push down, no new low from here it is time to quit.

You know I am probably wrong but I do see the spike down into a channel and the channel doing the pitch fork thing.

Boeing CEO telling CNBC that they will not cut or suspend dividend.
Also he supposedly said he believes in the 737 Max won't scrape the plane.

Personally, I am confident Warren Buffet will eventually step in and pick up the pieces, really really cheep.

ES 5. In a base. Stuck beneath the trendline, at support, riding the EMA 20. Could go either way.

Down channel, stay shorts as long it travels inside the down channel, I will call it a day once it moves out.