Cobra's Market View

Gap up above yesterday's high so chances are the gap won't be filled.

Nothing to say on Global ES, just I found my pattern analysis is better applied on Global ES as it did have a dip last night then a sharp reversal. Again, according to the last night report, this sharp reversal is expected, so you should know I'd maintain what I said last night. Merely one day sharp rally won't change my view. Yes I'm a snake, I twist into any direction, I never stand alone against the trend in order to prove that I'm right, but, hey, it doesn't mean that occasionally I won't stand still to insist that I'm right, for, well, say, 24 hours?

Morning lao da, it's mid december, if still big down ahead, where's the Santa Rally? Maybe we don't have it this year?

GM, early bird got worms again, well, since American Phi .618 has proven to us once again that it's still well and kicking I would have my focus on the Fib level closely the next few days.

Good morning Cobra!

I played with SPY, weekly chart.
This is not an ellipse. It is a “quasi-ovoid”, i.e. an approximate oval with only one axis of symmetry, similar to a chicken egg.

Why do I like it? Because a “smooth” ascending price evolution was typical for the QE2 period, while later, volatility increased as many impulses were dominated by falling prices. These recent moves can be accommodated inside the wider (rounded) end of the egg.
Here, such a figure was constructed with the help of MAT(165).

In simple terms:
- one can note that the longitudinal axis of the figure divides the surface in two almost equal areas.
- the breakdown of the figure into 4 arcs results in the appearance of an interesting quadrilateral, consisting of their respective chords. It has diagonals intersecting at 90 degrees and 2 sets of adjacent equal sides.
- since the dramatic fall completed on June 03 2011, SPY was confined inside this polygon (blue dotted lines).

If we accept the symbolism of this figure, we can assume that, for a few more weeks, the price would have a natural tendency to stay inside this polygon. In contrast, the drop of SPY under it would signal the beginning o a new significant breakdown.

=============
During the transfer process, the chart got slightly flattened….

noob wrote:Morning lao da, it's mid december, if still big down ahead, where's the Santa Rally? Maybe we don't have it this year?

google santa rally, you'll know when such a rally should start, we're way earlier now.

Good Morning.

So honey...what are they up to in Europe?

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/game.html

Playing games.

Shall we join in?

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eurusd_15.html

Nah.

Cobra wrote:

noob wrote:Morning lao da, it's mid december, if still big down ahead, where's the Santa Rally? Maybe we don't have it this year?

google santa rally, you'll know when such a rally should start, we're way earlier now.

Thanks, I thought it could be generally Dec, like last year.

Cobra wrote:Gap up above yesterday's high so chances are the gap won't be filled.

Nothing to say on Global ES, just I found my pattern analysis is better applied on Global ES as it did have a dip last night then a sharp reversal. Again, according to the last night report, this sharp reversal is expected, so you should know I'd maintain what I said last night. Merely one day sharp rally won't change my view. Yes I'm a snake, I twist into any direction, I never stand alone against the trend in order to prove that I'm right, but, hey, it doesn't mean that occasionally I won't stand still to insist that I'm right, for, well, say, 24 hours?

i agree with you, even though i went long yesterday afternoon. ended the day down a little bit, but the intraday bear was weakening, and i was amazed at the reversal in amzn. however, this is a short term long unless we can crack at the very least 1222/23 and 1232/33 on /ES.

Sold my longs $123.20 and went short same price.
Way too stretch IMO.

SANTA RALLY!

Futures got that sub 1200 print and that was all it needed to trigger some buyers. I'm thinking we get some consolidation this morning at current levels and prepare for a push to 1235 to take out the channel and HO HO HO! I'm in cash, will wait for the breakout to get super bullish because this market is so fickle and support/resistance so wide that risk/reward becomes just risk.

So what do you wanna do?

ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/es_15.html

Go skiing?

Nah.

NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/nq_15.html

Let's ski jump off that right shoulder.

GLTA.

noob wrote:Morning lao da, it's mid december, if still big down ahead, where's the Santa Rally? Maybe we don't have it this year?

Next week I think:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =251008969

cougar wrote:Good morning Cobra!

I played with SPY, weekly chart.
This is not an ellipse. It is a “quasi-ovoid”, i.e. an approximate oval with only one axis of symmetry, similar to a chicken egg.

Why do I like it? Because a “smooth” ascending price evolution was typical for the QE2 period, while later, volatility increased as many impulses were dominated by falling prices. These recent moves can be accommodated inside the wider (rounded) end of the egg.
Here, such a figure was constructed with the help of MAT(165).

In simple terms:
- one can note that the longitudinal axis of the figure divides the surface in two almost equal areas.
- the breakdown of the figure into 4 arcs results in the appearance of an interesting quadrilateral, consisting of their respective chords. It has diagonals intersecting at 90 degrees and 2 sets of adjacent equal sides.
- since the dramatic fall completed on June 03 2011, SPY was confined inside this polygon (blue dotted lines).

If we accept the symbolism of this figure, we can assume that, for a few more weeks, the price would have a natural tendency to stay inside this polygon. In contrast, the drop of SPY under it would signal the beginning o a new significant breakdown.

=============
During the transfer process, the chart got slightly flattened….

Good Morning Cobra:
Could it be that 1158 and recent down trends are just retracement of oct 4th run up and when retracement is complete there may be more up, no?

On the /ES side of thing, I got my resistance here, this is good Risk reward spot.

Me XMan wrote:Sold my longs $123.20 and went short same price.
Way too stretch IMO.

SANTA RALLY!

Nice job on the long positions. I got caught holding short overnight. Still nice profits on swing trade.

the open.

Good morning all! In a good mood today (shorten work week does that to you I guess) so wanted to show my appreciation before we all dive into it. Been a lurker daily on this site for a couple months now and a member for two weeks. I'm an Investment Advisor, have been in the biz for 10 years, but because I'm in an office with my assistant only, don't get an opportunity to mingle with others in the industry and don't day trade for clients accounts.
I've learned more in the past two months than I learned in the prior 10 years. From Cobra especially but also MUCH from the rest of you guys/gals. Best blog/site I've found! Keep it up everyone!!!

Caution: Spy max pain from 120 yesterday to current 124 is unusual large move OVERNIGHT (the most I ever saw was 2-3 pts always prove munipulation) suggest spring up ramp job to 1240/124 by EOD Friday… only purpose can be to reset bull trap (from Tuesday in the 124.25 range)… If true, NO close gap up open today… and more and more likely Santa is a no show… BullBear can you smell this?

IN SANTA WE TRUST

We buy with blind faith and we hope and pray. We believe there always somebody more dumber and more stupid than we are, to buy at higher and higher price where we can go up and up. We thought we go to 1360, but maybe not, maybe we can even get to 1260… after all Santa’s coming right? So we keep buy and buy on blind faith, now we get trapped… So hard to have nice Christmas when trapped, now we cry and pray really hard for Santa to come and save us… if only for tiny tiny bounce to make us believe we go to 1260… then we have little Christmas, but not so nice… We believe so hard we buy more to average price for tiny tiny bounce then Santa come to save us… Now, we sing jingle bells and spread Christmas cheer so everyone can sing and cry together…