Cobra's Market View

Small gap down but below yesterday's range, so not sure if the gap will be filled or not.

The Global ES still can be seen as a back test of the breakout point, so not bad yet.
The worst thing is Euro drops again, still pretty much look like a consolidation pattern therefore chances are it'd continue down.

Hi Cobra, better now?
Is that possible that yesterdays high is a double top with Oct 26 high?

Good morning Cobra. I hope you are feeling better today.
I just sent you an email as I am locked out of your subscription site. Appreciate your help…

Bonds were dumped yesterday (bull spy), especially munis MUB
Funds were moved into shorter term treasuries, 2yr, or at least that’s what my bond charts said as of yesterday’s close:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =245064294
(as usual, red arrows = bear spy and green arrows = bull spy)
[Caveat: stockcharts.com occasionally makes mistakes on bond charts]

Here’s my kool-aid thinking: 2s (and shorter terms) are known as a “parking place” for funds awaiting investment.
Why are folks “parking” funds in the 2s if they are so dang bullish on stocks???
I haven’t checked the FED site to see if it is NY FED activity, somebody else will have to do that.
If you trade bond futures, please show us your charts or links, thanks

Doc Al, here's an email I got from my muni bond buddy today:

The big (ok maybe not THAT big) surprise is that muni credit is STRONG rightnow. FY 2011 financial statements for states and local munis are rolling in. What is remarkable is that most entities are showing major surpluses. While not shocking, it IS surprising. Usually when states cut, the local credits get whipsawed, but we're seeing that local credits have also been prudent and cut accordingly. We are now deep into 2013 budget season (FY beginning July 1). What will be interesting for the macro take is, will states chill out and raise expenses (doubt it), will they lay off of cutting/ reforming pension benefits/OPEB (doubt it). This will however raise the heat on politicians to stop cutting. This should also raise the heat on Meredith whitney.
Ultimately, the market will need to puke up. Yesterday the market sold off a scoth (like 5-7 bps), but the 10 year muni is still at 1.88!!!!!!!!!
The question is, what will the catalyst for a sell off be? Will it be supply? Or will that continue to be anemic. Everyone's desk analyst is forecasting a 20% bump in supply this year. Is that enough? I dunno.... I think this year will continue to be a hodge podge of: 1. Idiosynchratic credit stories 2. Continuation of overall solid credit trend 3. Improved but still muted supply ( I actually am a touch bullish on supply) and 4. Technicals - i.e. where treasuries go. I think factor number 4 may play a larger role than normal, because the first 3 factors really just are not in the limelight. Factors 1-3 drove the market in 2011. ...

Al_Dente wrote:Good morning Cobra. I hope you are feeling better today.
I just sent you an email as I am locked out of your subscription site. Appreciate your help…

Bonds were dumped yesterday (bull spy), especially munis MUB
Funds were moved into shorter term treasuries, 2yr, or at least that’s what my bond charts said as of yesterday’s close:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =245064294
(as usual, red arrows = bear spy and green arrows = bull spy)
[Caveat: stockcharts.com occasionally makes mistakes on bond charts]

Here’s my kool-aid thinking: 2s (and shorter terms) are known as a “parking place” for funds awaiting investment.
Why are folks “parking” funds in the 2s if they are so dang bullish on stocks???
I haven’t checked the FED site to see if it is NY FED activity, somebody else will have to do that.
If you trade bond futures, please show us your charts or links, thanks

You forgot your password?

gabor wrote:Hi Cobra, better now?
Is that possible that yesterdays high is a double top with Oct 26 high?

anything is possible, we'll have to wait and see.

Hi, Cobra, Good to see you better. STILL, TAKE GOOD CARE OF your self.

Morning Cobra, hope you are recovering. Remember lots of hot water.

Do you see a bull flag on the ES? Thanks!

noob wrote:Morning Cobra, hope you are recovering. Remember lots of hot water.

Do you see a bull flag on the ES? Thanks!

Thanks, I'm better now.

I don't see Bull Flag. I see it as a bad sign, the strong push up has no follow-through as the overnight trading had already tried on the upside and failed.

Good Morning.

Coffee?

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/euro.html

Or a cartoon?

test

Cobra wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Good morning Cobra. I hope you are feeling better today.
I just sent you an email as I am locked out of your subscription site. Appreciate your help…
Bonds were dumped yesterday (bull spy), especially munis MUB
Funds were moved into shorter term treasuries, 2yr, or at least that’s what my bond charts said as of yesterday’s close:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =245064294
(as usual, red arrows = bear spy and green arrows = bull spy)
[Caveat: stockcharts.com occasionally makes mistakes on bond charts]
Here’s my kool-aid thinking: 2s (and shorter terms) are known as a “parking place” for funds awaiting investment.
Why are folks “parking” funds in the 2s if they are so dang bullish on stocks???
I haven’t checked the FED site to see if it is NY FED activity, somebody else will have to do that.
If you trade bond futures, please show us your charts or links, thanks

You forgot your password?

No, I just screwed something up I’m sure
I just replied to yr email
Thanks for yr help
Get better soon

Or...

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/eurusd_04.html

Would you prefer toast?

the open.

Honey?

ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/es_04.html

Any leftover gap fill?

Cobra wrote:

noob wrote:Morning Cobra, hope you are recovering. Remember lots of hot water.

Do you see a bull flag on the ES? Thanks!

Thanks, I'm better now.

I don't see Bull Flag. I see it as a bad sign, the strong push up has no follow-through as the overnight trading had already tried on the upside and failed.

Great to hear that you are better!

And oh no. Let's see what today brings. You always mention consolidate after big up/down usually means continuation? That's why I'm asking regarding bull flag. Thanks.

Thanks jarbo... munis ……very interesting…

Honey?

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/spx_04.html

Got more red sauce?

The U.S. Dollar

/DX is looking bad, which should translate into strong equities. will have to watch this intraday relationship.