Cobra's Market View

Sure looks like a lot of bottoming candles in the hourly TF...

During an uptrend a pull back like this is a buying op..

The daily candle could turn out to be a hammer..

Volume today is the highest in 5 days.

Trade what you see, not what you hear.

Hammer Criteria:

1) The longer the lower shadow, the higher the potential of a reversal
occurring.

2) A gap down from the previous day's close sets up for a stronger reversal move
provided the day after the Hammer signal opens higher.

3) Large volume on the Hammer day increases the chances that a blow off day has
occurred.

Just a thought from the peanut gallery. Carry on.

stlwater wrote:Sure looks like a lot of bottoming candles in the hourly TF...

During an uptrend a pull back like this is a buying op..

The daily candle could turn out to be a hammer..

Volume today is the highest in 5 days.

Trade what you see, not what you hear.

Hammer Criteria:

1) The longer the lower shadow, the higher the potential of a reversal
occurring.

2) A gap down from the previous day's close sets up for a stronger reversal move
provided the day after the Hammer signal opens higher.

3) Large volume on the Hammer day increases the chances that a blow off day has
occurred.

Just a thought from the peanut gallery. Carry on.

all excellent points....

jarbo456 wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:ok...i'm getting hits that it's official? france to lose triple A?

I know the France gov. know it's done deal when the Finance minister came out last week, saying that French will not work to please the rating agency, they will continue spending so long they can issue their bond.

i'm just thinking that if this was known a week or more ago, there was little to no affect in the market. is there yet another rumor/event that's being priced in right now that's keeping this market up?

Well now that the news is out the market can continue to go higher...

Or, will it take a day or two to sink in...

let's put rumor/news on side even tho i believe it is fact based on the reaction from all parties. i see a possible setup: short around 1289 and cover around 1279.

add: from zh
If I understand the process in Europe correctly, S&P has to provide 24 hour notice to the countries if they are going to change their ratings.

in other words, if it is for real, sp shd have already informed the french and very likely ecb.

lqiantobe wrote:

Cobra wrote:

lqiantobe wrote:

lqiantobe wrote:Corba~ It's hard for me to tell top or consolidation then breakout(upside). E.g. YGE, can you tell is it near the top?

Corba~ Any comments on my questions?

it's consolidation, not top.

How to tell?

You read thousands of charts, you'll have the feeling. I might be wrong this time of course but I just don't read it as a top.

soku wrote:let's put rumor/news on side even tho i believe it is fact based on the reaction from all parties. i see a possible setup: short around 1289 and cover around 1279.

add: from zh
If I understand the process in Europe correctly, S&P has to provide 24 hour notice to the countries if they are going to change their ratings.

in other words, if it is for real, sp shd have already informed the french and very likely ecb.

that's probably why the european market sold off halfway through their market day yesterday...

look all the past 9 trading days. dip, bought, dip, bought, dip bought. I cannot imagine once again the dip was being bought.

VXX hourly

SPX: This is not a major reversal set up. In my opinion price is either unfolding the wave (IV) of an ED or the wave (II) of (3) within the wave (C) off the Dec 19 low

Al_Dente wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

Cobra wrote:volume surge, biggest bar, so hopefully a pullback here. I still find very hard to believe the dip was bought again and we close strong again today.

Up/DN volume were so low it need to relief the pressure.($NYUPV)

Yeoooow look what happened to my NYDNV (straight, no ratio, big blue circle, note other incidents when that happened)
while I was busy dickin’ around with Mariah
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

Dr. Al, try to combine those to TRIN as a trend you will understand my thinking. I know you have deep understanding of these internals.

Unless we drop, this is looking bullish, fellas.

Cobra wrote:look all the past 9 trading days. dip, bought, dip, bought, dip bought. I cannot imagine once again the dip was being bought.

never fucking ending.

ricster3

VIX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/vix_13.html

Bullish cross of MACD on the daily chart.

Petsamo wrote:Unless we drop, this is looking bullish, fellas.

bulls are grinding this just like the past couple of days but just feels like its;s going to roll over.....

risk/reward for bears is growing.....with 1284 as resistance.

First post here, but I've been reading Cobra for 2+ years.

I have been running a program called HFTAlert that shows HFT and Algo participation. Having done quite well for many years using Elliott Wave with just RSI and MACD as a divergence tool, short-term EW is utterly broken. You can see it when the mkt is, as a pretty hard rule, ready to plunge in a continuation pattern and 10%+ of US stocks get hit with quote stuffing in one second. There was a day in early December where the Dow trade up 70 points and back down in one second. Most thought it was a bad print. When you see 5 cent ranges in SPY and suddenly a 25-50 point move happens, virtually 100% of the time computers hit it. Whose fingers are on the buttons at key points is something I will let others decide for themselves. I already have strong feelings given that into some declines there is one, just one, massive hit that stops the decline. One trader who uses DeMark setups, which he says many trading firms and mutual funds use, have gotten signals and moments later the mkt is violently moved in the opposite direction. Deeper pockets seem to always win. The largest ping of the day was at 10:58 that took it through the 9:41 low. I'm just beginning to put things together with the liklihood of when they will act, but I doubt I will trade trying to guess what someone else will do. Had that attracted selling they would have jumped in front of the selling and instantly hit it down. And they can trade in literally an instant.

EW-wise, I would argue that it is quite possible that we just put a solid top (ending diagonal) in that speaks of breaking the August lows. Will it happen? After 3 months of watching 1 minute bars and how the "pings" are often in the last 5 seconds of a bar to get its close higher, it is man against machines with unlimited money. The fear and greed needed for EW to work if often absent and surely has greatly declined. The mkt is nothing like it was up until 2008 since WW II. IMO, it is a completely new game we play, and God forbid you don't at least have orders loaded to click-to-enter, for 15-20 seconds when you decide to act might get you to trade into a spike that will just as quickly turn the other way. The parasites act on the orders that lay on the books as well as ones that enter and they will add a latency to the system through quote stuffing to trade ahead. When it's slow, the faster HFTs try to trick the algos into trading. Even Grasso, who let this in, is saying the machines need to be ripped out. They have decimated public participation.

I'm glad to be here AND for just $10. There's a nice group of people throwing out ideas. And thanks to 99er and his semi-Gartley pattern. 128 puts bought at 5 were sold at 35 this morning when I saw him write two words, which I think were, "That's It".

PAGING Taggard
Okay so I take that back maybe I couldn’t whop you after all…
But I did LOVE your typo “duel major”

PS: I too like Hemingway. Here’s the encouragement/support he got from his mom, oy…

“…Unless you, my son…come to yourself, cease your lazy loafing and pleasure seeking… – borrowing with no thought of returning – stop trying to graft a living off anybody and everybody – spending all your earnings lavishly and wastefully on luxuries for yourself – stop trading on your handsome face, to fool little gullible girls… unless … you come into your manhood, there is nothing before you but bankruptcy…”

[Grace Hemingway, in a letter to her 21-year-old son Ernest, just a few years before he wrote “The Sun Also Rises,” the novel that defined a generation, catapulted him to stardom, and eventually led to his Pulitzer and Nobel prizes].

TWT wrote:SPX: This is not a major reversal set up. In my opinion price is either unfolding the wave (IV) of an ED or the wave (II) of (3) within the wave (C) off the Dec 19 low

What do you think the targets are for 1) c of IV and 2) II of 3?

Petsamo wrote:Unless we drop, this is looking bullish, fellas.

Look at vix, this is bull trap set up, vix 1min should trade below 200ma already but no, smell some thing

Let's not ignore the potential close over the 50WMA... or the Golden Cross which occurred with barely a mention.

99er wrote:ricster3

VIX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/vix_13.html

Bullish cross of MACD on the daily chart.

Cobra wrote:

lqiantobe wrote:

Cobra wrote:

lqiantobe wrote:

lqiantobe wrote:Corba~ It's hard for me to tell top or consolidation then breakout(upside). E.g. YGE, can you tell is it near the top?

Corba~ Any comments on my questions?

it's consolidation, not top.

How to tell?

You read thousands of charts, you'll have the feeling. I might be wrong this time of course but I just don't read it as a top.

Cobra, are you talking about the market? Thanks