Cobra's Market View

Flat open, so any gap will be filled.

The Global ES had a little head fake then fell back into consolidation area, so neutral here, not bad as long as doesn't fall below the area.

Good morning

"They could hire 3,000 people overnight. What U.S. plant can find 3,000 people overnight and convince them to live in dorms?"
[Jennifer Rigoni, Apple's worldwide supply demand manager until 2010, on the advantages of using foreign plants]
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/busin ... s&emc=tha3

Good Morning.

So honey, more coffee?

http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/352

Got a cartoon?

Honey...

EURUSD http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/354

Now this is funny.

Honey!? What are you looking at now?

ES http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/356

The fold-out.

UNG is feeling some excitement this morning.

hadn't have time to post in the weekend. if you are not familiar with this newsletter, than you shuold, it has nice insights intermediate to long term:
http://www.hmsupdate.hertlermarketsignal.com/

it shows the bifurcation of the market where we have both longterm buy signals and longterm dangerously overbought signals to longterm sell signals still in place (mainly credit). my best guess in another try at the 1340-1370 range before topping out for a long time. market fundamentals are weak with very low earnings beat rate, profit margin topping and very low global economic growth. in my oppinion the market is running way ahead of himself now. in the past 3 years this has always ended in very sharp downside corrections.

p.s.
the CSFB also shows longterm overbought (complacent) conditions again as well.

the open.

I was aging “grachu” but my BOT sent me to the wrong link…
Before the release of Earnings Report, many stock owners have to answer the questions raised by you yesterday, in connection with AAPL. Before answering ”what does that mean ” long term, you don’t want to lose money short term, by being a sitting duck…

I shall exemplify this, in connection with an interesting hedging problem:
As I posted during last week, I bought CRR stock and sold (to open) CRR calls to hedge.
But CRR is reporting earnings on Thursday, Jan 26, before the opening of the market…and look what happens sometimes subsequent to ER…even of they beat expectations!
On the other hand, the BUY signal was clean by several criteria, including those used in the RENKO that I showed last week…Technicals look too good for a bailout…
The logical thing to do, if I want to stay in the trade is to buy, in addition, out of the money Feb puts. The strike is to be decided in the meantime…If I do that, I would construct a “collar” - a very common tool used by top executives who own large positions in their company stocks, but do not want to sell them, because of PR and taxation reasons… Also, insiders acquiring collars do not have to report such operations to the SEC. Handy, no?

Hopefully, the days before ER will be inspiring…

cobra--hope the hongbao(red envelopes) is piling up--thanks for the site and have a good new year.

Risk clearly on since the beginning of the year...

99er wrote:Honey!? What are you looking at now?

ES http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/356

The fold-out.

Maybe the fold-out is the prelude of the fall-out...

I just wonder where the bulls have their seemingly never ending optimism from and even the smallest dip gets vigorously bought no matter what

Update

SPX http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/358

For Bears...a pin-up.

GLTA.

champix wrote:Risk clearly on since the beginning of the year...

Hi Champ
Could u please post yr /CL if u have time, thanks

WEEKEND NOTES:
Friday…$NYUD culmlative diverged and pulled back (red line); $NYLOW (bottom panel) moved back to bull <40
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =253140071

Curious that SPY reached Friday’s high on only ~1700 stocks advancing (and 1700 nyadv was HOD at the EOD ramp). Maybe it’s that AD design (it shows breadth not depth).
I scanned NYSE stocks greater than +9% Friday and found a motley assortment of top gainers:
TLB takeover offer
CPY fraud case
FCH reit
USLV silver 3x
TRU takeover
NOAH China, wealth mgmt
NBG.A National Bank of Greece +11%
DL China, education
AGQ silver 2x
IPHI semis
KV/A pharma
CEP oil + gas
LEE penny stock, chapter 11

So here’s what we thought of Europe last week
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =248445824
And the European banks played catch-up last week
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p ... =252469497

And silver last week, with other commodities.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p= ... =243263222

Miss Etta James, R.I.P. (1962, live) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzibSiJv ... re=related

Short position $131.90 stop loss $132.50

ascending triangle text book target.

Al_Dente wrote:

champix wrote:Risk clearly on since the beginning of the year...

Hi Champ
Could u please post yr /CL if u have time, thanks

Here we go my dear Al

biggest bar on volume surge, so could be a pullback here.