Cobra's Market View

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list HERE. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.

• Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.

• Personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.

• Please no direct link to your personal web site or blog. You must post rich contents here. You can, however, put link to your personal web site or blog as your signature.

• I'm very busy during the trading hour, so your question posted on board might not be answered. For a guaranteed answer to your question please send email to info@cobrasmarketview.com.

========================================================================================================================================================================

Rising wedge, finally a top pattern which sometimes can last for millions of years though so it's just a sign not a tradable signal for bears.

Small gap up so probably just a range day. I don't expect big moves today because of FOMC tomorrow.

SPY 15. Lots of chop. Lots of spikes. Going nowhere. Ugly and dangerous.

SPY 5. Ugly. Be careful out there.

ES daily. Still pushing at the top. Extending the base. Well above the EMA 20.

Some stocks are doing all right without too much turbulence.

Back a bit later ...

Tuesday, April 27: MMM, UPS, GOOG, AMGN, MSFT, SBUX, V
[GOOG and MSFT report eps after the close]

"...the Backtest Engine shows mediocre returns any time the ROBO Put/Call Ratio rises above 0.4, with an average return over the next couple of weeks of-0.3%.
[ROBO = Retail-Only, Buy-to-Open]
https://sentimentrader.com/blog/options ... haken-out/

The NYMO cycle has turned up.
It looks a little peekid to me as it is still a lower high to the 4/15 high, but it has satisfied the two closes above zero model criteria.
The recent downcycle was a fail as price never broke below the benchmark of SPX 4086.23.
This benchmark is now considered "unfinished business" to be cleaned up later.

Pricewise, bulls have reclaimed the upper keltner band, which is bullish.
Judging by the way price is hugging the upper keltner however, I am inclined to think the bulls have broken a sweat trying to keep things moving.
Rolling the rock up hill...
We have racked up a nice stack of gaps below that may serve as targets at some point.
Not much else to say.

I remain long my SPX runner position and have a taster long in R2K.
My percolating short setups last week never triggered.
While there are a few days to go, R2K looks to be putting in an inside month for April (not exactly bullish)
So, I honored a long setup but limited size. May or may not add depending on price action.

UPDATE:
Recall that SentimenTrader identified these as the FOUR HORSEMEN OF A RECOVERY on 2/26
This is daily, with default 20/50ma

This market is dead, and probably remains dead until msft/googl ER

Widest red bar on volume surge so might be a rebound here first then we'll see. I had no idea what the market was doing, hopefully the current action will give me some clues.

BofA "... bearish sentiment accelerated and for the second week in a row the bank's clients were net sellers"

If most BofA clients were dumping, how did stocks rise to new all time highs?
...according to BofA, buybacks accelerated vs the prior week and reached the highest level since the start of reporting season, driven by Financials. The easing of capital restrictions is one reason we’re bullish Fins. but we believe corporate cash priorities broadly may shift towards capex.

[add to BofA post:]
zh opines: "In short: we are back to the pre-QE market where it wasn't Fed purchases as much as (debt funded) stock buybacks that provided the relentless dry powder pushing risk assets to all time highs. There is just one difference - not only do we have record buybacks but we also have $120BN in monthly Fed liquidity injections. We say that just in case someone is naive enough to actually short the manipulated policy tool once upon a time known as "the market."

TRIVIA:
75% of spy’s holdings are in these top five sectors: info tech, health, discretionary, financials and communication services
Top ten holdings of spy (in order of heaviest weight): AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, GOOG, TSLA, BRK/B, JPM, JNJ

85% of dia’s holdings are in these top five sectors: info tech, health, industrials, financials and discretionary
Top ten holdings of dia (in order of heaviest weight): UNH, GS, HD, MSFT, AMGN, BA, CRM, MCD, CAT, V

Tonight MSFT and GOOGL report. FYI:
MSFT is 5.06% of dia, its fourth heaviest weight … and it is 5.57% of spy
GOOG and GOOGL are not in the dia … but combined they are 3.85% of spy

[data as of 4/26/21]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Wednesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381