Cobra's Market View

GENERALLY dollar up, commodities down, GENERALLY
Daily

The weakest link.

Mr. BachNut wrote:...When weekly prices are making higher highs with a negative RSI divergence, it is not uncommon for the two year moving average to get a test.
SPX has been climbing with a declining RSI since early May.
If Mr. Market decides to visit the two year MA, SPX could see the mid-3000s.
This is not a prediction! Just a possibility to open one's mind.
3500 give or take would be a big move from the highs and hard to see happening without some bad headlines.
But, as you all have heard before, I have no idea what will happen.

THANKS MR. BACH

For now it may look like a bear flag but still it's hard to trust bears. Breakout the EMA20 with strong bull bar then bears are over today, key time.

On the SHORT side
SHORTS 30min

IWM daily, update
double top target met (cyan)
“BIG M” pattern, target met (orange/gold)
This is brutal and a bounce would only be dead cat until proven otherwise
Daily

margin caller:
https://www.calculatorpro.com/calculato ... alculator/

Seems like the consensus is that the drop can be blamed on the new covid strain
and CNBC is still talking about PE

EARLIER TODAY:
"CNBC’s Jim Cramer said investors who want to take advantage of Monday’s market declines can likely be patient, suggesting further room for stocks to fall. Morgan Stanley thinks a 10% to 20% correction is ahead and tells investors to get defensive." [MS has been saying that for a month ++ and they mean -10% to -20% correction from the highs]

Test the day low, let's see whether bulls can make a double bottom here. I usually need see 2 consecutive strong bull bars before calling the double bottom.

So does SPY want to test its last month’s bottom at circa $415 ?
If so, it may be a bumpy ride
Obviously everything is pretty oversold, and could continue oversold for a while,
but it does give credence to an impending “dead cat” bounce
THIRTY MINUTES

AMC is now down some -57% from its high
and the Apes are still averaging down
Breaks my heart because I’m rooting for the APES, but
RULES:
1. Cut your losses quick (depending on your time frame)
2. Don't average down - that’s running your losses instead of cutting them.
“It is foolhardy to make a second trade if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. – Jesse Livermore
“Don’t ever average down on any stock in your portfolio. – William O’Neil
“Don’t garden by digging up the flowers and watering the weeds. – Warren Buffett

Todays round up of other peoples incites-

Twitter feed showing Da Boyz are buying calls on the 3x ETFs. Could end in tears and eliminate a big source of bull power.

Options gamma crowd pretty much saw this event coming. However it has gone further than they expect. Gamma pinning by the banks starts to come back around the 26th of July.

They are buying treasures and selling equities comments to me means the Bridgewater Fund types are once again de-leveraging.

It is getting clear that seasonality, the sweet spot in earnings comparisons to prior periods, apparent failure of the central bankers to get a clue, end of Biden Admin honeymoon (vaccine isn't working) and most significantly CCP tanking their economy while destroying Hong Kong are all having an effect.

Trades w 2 Cats wrote:.....Twitter feed showing Da Boyz are buying calls on the 3x ETFs. Could end in tears and eliminate a big source of bull power....

THANKS BOSS.
Can u tell us on WHICH TWITTER FEED you are seeing buying 3x calls?

Touch the blue line again then breakdown would be more likely.

“It is safe to go back in the water” [Larry Vaughn, the mayor of Amity in the movie JAWS]

“Bear markets are defined by a 20% decline or more from a recent peak.”
Here are the The 20 S&P 500 stocks that have fallen furthest from their 52-week highs

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/these-s ... l-off.html

Next rang low will be challenged if support fail here. I think the low is in today (100 points day this is new) tomorrow will be reversal identify mission for bulls. Peace!

all on positive divergence, pink (often not always means impending bounce)
5min