Cobra's Market View

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The rebound, for now, looks like a bear flag so in theory should be another leg down but you know I generally don't trust any bear patterns so say, 50.0000000000000000001% chances another leg down at some point

Gap up near the yesterday's high so likely it's just a range day.

SPY 15. Up a bit from the close. Pbar at 800 am.

ES at the pivot, keep it simple. sell day, hope to chase it down.

Sell setup cash SPX swing.

Note IBM
(earnings)

"Since the A/D Line peaked on June 11, the S&P 500 has gone on to add more than 100 points and was perched at an all-time high within the past week. The A/D Line, in contrast, has sunk enough to be at its lowest point in two months.

When this has triggered in the past, the S&P tended to follow the A/D Line lower, with a positive return over the next month only 37% of the time. It showed more risk than reward up to three months later and showed below-random returns across all time frames.

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/the ... 1366687428

Alternatives. All up except USO.

ps: SentimenTrader now does videos
1 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hc3o9AlTt_g

If this sell fail, bears are done or sideways for bears at best, new LL from here it will be a home run.

Dow 30 leaders.

Later ...

Not a day for bears, I am sitting out will get back in later looks like 3 push up is only game left for bears.

SpotGamma, Yesterday
"if it was about delta variant then puts would have been bought in a material way. didn't happen.
“… Despite the weakness, intraday S&P flow has been positive deltas all day [yesterday]. No panic.

Look at yesterday's $VIX and $VVIX no fears? today looks good for bulls because we are at the cross point in between selling to dip buying point. anyways dip buying will trigger if we closed strong today, if so tomorrow will be a buy day.

Break to the new day high with good looking bull bar then it's an uptrend day, bears be aware. The previous 2 times, the next day after a big down day both were up huge, people are still in buy buy buy mind.

OK, first sign of uptrend day, it's still early so if you need a second sign, then wait.

I will get back in on the 3rd push, sell only day for me.

Breakout to the new day high with good looking bull bar then it's the 2nd confirmation of an uptrend day, key time.

FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE RECOVERY update, daily
The horses have been telling us that the recovery may be stalling; now we know it may be the covid variant surge....
Circles show the recent tops
However all (except XLE) are on positive diverg (STO-14, not shown) today
Let's see if they can recover enough to change the game

My new slow chart, 8,000 tick bars on the ES showing.

Using the end of day surge looks like the measured move worked out. waiting to see what happens next.