Cobra's Market View

Gap up but within yesterday's range so chances are the gap will be filled.

The Global ES doesn't look good, it's a Bear Flag, period. I know nowadays Bear Flag doesn't work, but we trade based on odds, not maybe this time is different, so for now I can only tell you that NORMALLY the odds are high there'll be another leg down.

whats the target for measured move is it 1320. Can we go long for a day or 2 from there. I trade rydex funds only so if there is any weakness around 10.45 I will cover my shorts and go long. Or wait till end of day today. we have employment numbers this friday.

Good article on effectiveness of some technical indicators:

http://bit.ly/z2Hr2f

Cobra wrote:Gap up but within yesterday's range so chances are the gap will be filled.

The Global ES doesn't look good, it's a Bear Flag, period. I know nowadays Bear Flag doesn't work, but we trade based on odds, not maybe this time is different, so for now I can only tell you that NORMALLY the odds are high there'll be another leg down.

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Cobra,could we bounce as high as 1365-70 before the correction resumes possibly by Friday or Monday

billrider321 wrote:whats the target for measured move is it 1320. Can we go long for a day or 2 from there. I trade rydex funds only so if there is any weakness around 10.45 I will cover my shorts and go long. Or wait till end of day today. we have employment numbers this friday.

We don't know the target yet until the rebound ends and I don't believe it'd be 100% Measured Move.

johnnywa wrote:

Cobra wrote:Gap up but within yesterday's range so chances are the gap will be filled.

The Global ES doesn't look good, it's a Bear Flag, period. I know nowadays Bear Flag doesn't work, but we trade based on odds, not maybe this time is different, so for now I can only tell you that NORMALLY the odds are high there'll be another leg down.

1.png

Cobra,could we bounce as high as 1365-70 before the correction resumes possibly by Friday or Monday

No idea yet.

billrider321 wrote:whats the target for measured move is it 1320. Can we go long for a day or 2 from there. I trade rydex funds only so if there is any weakness around 10.45 I will cover my shorts and go long. Or wait till end of day today. we have employment numbers this friday.

BR, I'm a Rydex only trader, as well. I like the Ultras as we have 2 opportunities to make decisions each day. I'm 60% short but added 10% long NDX at yesterday's close for a short term pop.

PLUNGE wrote:

billrider321 wrote:whats the target for measured move is it 1320. Can we go long for a day or 2 from there. I trade rydex funds only so if there is any weakness around 10.45 I will cover my shorts and go long. Or wait till end of day today. we have employment numbers this friday.

BR, I'm a Rydex only trader, as well. I like the Ultras as we have 2 opportunities to make decisions each day. I'm 60% short but added 10% long NDX at yesterday's close for a short term pop.

Would you mind telling me why Rydex instead of ETF? is it because it's your 401K money and your company sponsored part is in a Rydex account? Hope you're OK with this question, I'm always wondering why so many trade Rydex, got to be some reasons.

the open.

sold X 25.56 bought from yesterday, 1% gain

SPX: I am waiting to see of price fades in the range 1352-1355 otherwise if above 58 it could retest the previous high in the next couple of days

Per Tom DeMark "Range Expansion" Algo

We have rallied for 3 months without much of a respite. Yet, the buy buy buy market took a break yesterday selling off about 1.5% and all the media pundits were crying about such a horrible day. Seriously?

Let's cut to the facts. A rising wedge has broken and now we sell until we find a support line that holds a few times and then we'll be back to mindless buying once again.

The support line that held yesterday was the 34 dma at 1342.82. Of course, there was a buying surge at 3:50pm yesterday that got us above that line, and the futures pretty much rallied all night to 1348ish. It appears to be a two push up and a bear flag so perhaps the overnight games are over and the dumping will begin at open.

If the 34 dma should fail, my near term support lines are 1325-1326 formed by the gap up on 2/3/12 followed by the 50 dma at 1321.35.

Hourly chart on the Futures is already starting to break down out of the bear flag however, I am concerned that VWAP (orange lines) will keep the market from going down. Only volume busts VWAP and with the exception of yesterday, volume has been non-existent on the downside. Once it kisses VWAP, bears are toast. Yesterday, despite the massive selling, we managed to avoid kissing VWAP, and thus, could continue selling without interruption from the mean reversion traders.

Bears are also fighting against the fact that yesterday was a major distribution down day. NYSE decliners were >2700 etc. Usually such days are followed by a bounce.

Lastly, the iPad3 press conference is today and we all know that AAPL can hold up the NQ which will in turn, keep the rest of the market afloat. AAPL made a nice panic bottom yesterday, early on, and almost made it back to green territory by close on this news. Anyone else find it odd that AAPL (now the largest market cap in the world) still trades like a penny stock with crazy bid/ask spreads?

See my charts at:

tradingchumps.blogspot.com/2012/03/spx-3-7-12.html

BR, I'm a Rydex only trader, as well. I like the Ultras as we have 2 opportunities to make decisions each day. I'm 60% short but added 10% long NDX at yesterday's close for a short term pop.[/quote]

Would you mind telling me why Rydex instead of ETF? is it because it's your 401K money and your company sponsored part is in a Rydex account? Hope you're OK with this question, I'm always wondering why so many trade Rydex, got to be some reasons. [/quote]

Yes, Cobra. 401K used to be with Merrill Lynch and switched to Rydex a few years ago.

PLUNGE wrote:BR, I'm a Rydex only trader, as well. I like the Ultras as we have 2 opportunities to make decisions each day. I'm 60% short but added 10% long NDX at yesterday's close for a short term pop.

Would you mind telling me why Rydex instead of ETF? is it because it's your 401K money and your company sponsored part is in a Rydex account? Hope you're OK with this question, I'm always wondering why so many trade Rydex, got to be some reasons. [/quote]

Yes, Cobra. 401K used to be with Merrill Lynch and switched to Rydex a few years ago.[/quote]

Got you, thanks.

not much clue, guess it's 2 legged up, we're on leg one.

close gap,now advance?

GM Cobra, This is my first post. I've been watcing and following along since august last year! lol Thank you for the site. Been learning so much here and reading your reports and have made some money too. I heard about you from Bullish Cross where he has a link and I've been hooked ever since. At first I tried to read all the posts and got confused and mixed signals. Later I narrowed it down to just mostly reading your posts and I started to do much better! I often use your Amazon links to shop because I use Amazon a lot. Please keep up the good work you Martian twisting turning king Cobra Snake! Here is an interview I saw a couple weeks ago on Moneyshow with AL Brooks. (I don't read all the posts so excuse me if someone already shared this) He has an interesting take on why he doesn't watch the news while trading. http://www.moneyshow.com/video/VideoNet ... ndicators/

stucap wrote:
Let's cut to the facts. A rising wedge has broken and now we sell until we find a support line that holds a few times and then we'll be back to mindless buying once again.

And that should retrace 100%, or more, in less time than it took to form.

I'm glad you posted that as I had forgotten to look at Hussman's weekly article the last few months. Thanks!

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120305.htm
(in part...much more good stuff there....Hussmans showed QExx doesn't work as money volatility slows and the end result is nothing gained in the economy and no problems solved)

Last week, the estimated return/risk profile of the S&P 500 fell to the worst 2.5% of all observations in history on our measures. This is not a runaway bull market. Rather, it is a market that again stands near the highs of an extended but volatile trading range. I am convinced that the breakdown of the market from this range has been deferred only through repeated and extraordinary central bank actions.

Importantly, the market is again characterized by an extreme set of conditions that we've previously associated with a "Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest." The rare instances we've seen this syndrome historically are reviewed in that previous weekly comment. They include the 1972-73 and 1987 market peaks, and several instances since 1998. The more recent instances of this syndrome are shown by the blue bands on the chart below. Each of the separate instances in the 1998-2000 period were followed in short order by intermediate market declines of between 10-18%, and of course, ultimately by a plunge of more than 50% in 2000-2002. Likewise, the 2007 instance was followed in short order by a correction of nearly 10%, and a few months later by a plunge of more than 50% in 2007-2009. The more recent instances in 2010 and 2011 have also been followed by substantial market selloffs in each case, though with a longer lag in 2011 (due to ongoing QE2 operations). Aggressive monetary policy did not prevent the ultimate declines, though massive central bank interventions have undoubtedly helped to short-circuit the more violent follow-through that occurred in 1973-1974, 1987, 2000-2002, and 2007-2009, at least to-date.

Support and resistance with ellipses