Cobra's Market View

Down 1 week, the next week has 61% chances to close up.

SPY daily. Reading the tea leaves.

Sharp pullback almost to the EMA 50. Very heavy volume today.

Stuck beneath $470 since November 8.

Indicators MACD and Slow Sto down, of course.

It will take some heavy lifting to move the needle up.

Cobra: Excellent member report last night. THANK YOU.

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Spending the holidays with the kids. Son in law is a DNA gunslinger, published PhD Computational Biologist writing code for tools used to analyze the virus DNA. A single mutation in the bonding proteins can make a virus invisible to human immune system. Omicron has 12 mutations. Early days but big questions that will take weeks to answer.

Reminds me that the first to get out is a smart trader and everyone else is just panicking.

From It is what it is department" DOW worst post Thanksgiving since 1931, 3rd worst post Thanksgiving of all time. #1 Dow -3.52% 11/25/1919 #2 Dow -2.76% 11/27/1931 #3 Dow -2.53 11/26/2021. (WW1, WW2, WW3 to follow in that order, Just kidding haha), that Last Friday puts Monthly candle in a shooting candle. this is not normal especially when all are fat up with good foods and drinks only to get up and find out the drop and volume came in at night. not fair at all. not much to say but risk off in short term, price is deep under 5 DMA, rips will be sold. good news is that we are entering buy the dip zone on the daily setup. for this time frame RSI(5) >30 to trigger the buy signal, a trade back over 5 DMA will also be a good MA to see the turn. Negative TA internals and Negative Divergences finally played out. For now be careful out there. Trade well, Peace!

VOLUME, bottom panels, daily, see pink circles:
Slide your eyeballs over to the late September bottom. On Sept 20 it took about 160million shares to signal exhaustion. Note the candle on that day closed with a big lower wick (indicating an intraday rally).
Then then a bounce intervened for 5 days before another drop tested the bottom and made a new low ... the volume was red but weakening … creating a positive divergence.
This year (back to January, not seen on this chart), exhaustion volume and interim bottoms have always printed red volume above at least 125million shares … and we’re not there yet
Friday’s volume was 112.6million shares and the lower wick was teeny tiny … we’re not there yet...
Caveat: this is Recency Bias

Junk Bonds, friend of equities, broke hard on Friday with a good lower wick, and on lower volume
So there’s your Glass-Half-Full

Another Glass-Half-Full:
Surprised that IPO, risky new issues, did pretty well on Friday, and Cathie Woods red but not bad
15min

News from the South African Medical Association
https://www.republicworld.com/world-new ... ptoms.html

from the totally unprofessional desk:

it feels like the noob trader is always wrong. most noob traders ive read firmly believe this is nothing but a buy the dip situation. So that means omicron is the real deal and were about to see another major crash and the world go into lockdown again.

$AAII Bull - $AAII Bear shows less bulls, no extremes though so nothing.

Rob Hanna
"Action After Strong Friday Selloffs"
"...a strong bullish bias"
https://quantifiableedges.com/action-af ... -selloffs/