Cobra's Market View

My stop is at 4556 if stop out I am done for today. Peace!

Break the blue line in the next, say 5 bars then it's a downtrend day. Just it'd be mostly within the yesterday's range which means support on every step down so I generally would treat it as a range day.

would like to see it break up out of this crash channel before I start thinking long....

Mark Hulbert looks into returns over the past 124 years:
The Santa Claus Rally Isn't Real; Don't Buy Into It
“...there’s little to no statistical validity to the Santa Claus Rally. I know you will be shocked to realize this, but it appears as though Wall Street is cynically taking Santa’s good name in vain in hopes of seducing you to invest more money in the stock market. “
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/san ... ont-buy-it

BUT "the period of above-average strength lasts from the day after Christmas until the first trading days of January—six trading sessions."

old news:
CEOs and corporate insiders have sold a record $69 billion in stock in 2021, as looming tax hikes and lofty share prices encourage many to take profits.
As of Monday, sales by insiders are up 30% from 2020 to $69 billion, and up 79% versus a 10-year average, according to InsiderScore/Verity.
The selling is likely to increase even more as December is often an active month for sales due to tax planning. [CNBC 12/1]

It's the very first test of EMA20 in 2 hours so could attract some sellers, watch for EMA short setup. Strong breakout here then bears are over for today.

Got out of crash channel and now appears to be making a new one.... Not a good day to try to be bullish...

Popular leveraged-short tickers on the daily, heikin ashi
(by far the most popular this week is SQQQ ... according to volume)
SHORTS

Need a sustained break of the red MA line, which has been resistance this morning....

investors have poured almost $900 billion into equity funds in 2021 - exceeding the combined total from the past 19 years - according to data from Bank of America Corp. and EPFR Global.

“I consider this era an even crazier era than the dotcom era” [97-year-old Charlie Munger, at the Sohn conference]

Possible head and shoulders bottom, the low might be in for today.

Equal Weight RSP divergence
Daily

Options experts saying if we go below 4,500 gamma will flip with the market makers forced to short the market as new put buyers come in.

Trades w 2 Cats wrote:Options experts saying if we go below 4,500 gamma will flip with the market makers forced to short the market as new put buyers come in.

Guess that's why we keep bouncing there for now

Getting a bit late in the day for the classic V-shaped mad bull bounce

Do we or don't we get a classic ugly finish to the week?

Talk about a real battle, this 4,500 level is really hard to call.

from Twitter, Master Panda Wu is looking for a drop to 4420 for his expanding megaphone pattern. Now he is uncertain if market will drop straight to his target in the last 20 minutes or wait for Monday.