Cobra's Market View

Institutional accumulation clearly in downtrend while distribution clearly in uptrend.

Quoted from Schaeffer:

Evidence that some hedge fund managers are shying away from equities comes from our analysis of option activity, as put buying on major exchange-traded funds has declined, in turn driving put implied volatilities on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) lower relative to call implied volatilities (first chart below). As you can see on the second chart below, cumulative put buying at the recent peak never reached the levels of late July 2011, when hedge funds were overweight equities ahead of a 20% decline. But recent put buying on major exchange-traded funds (ETFs) did reach the levels of spring 2011, which preceded a 7% pullback in the SPX.

NDX Hedgers are betting heavily on the downside.

Thanks laoda! Any thoughts on VIX here?

Cobra wrote:NDX Hedgers are betting heavily on the downside.

noob wrote:Thanks laoda! Any thoughts on VIX here?

Cobra wrote:NDX Hedgers are betting heavily on the downside.

No.

My take is that we will eventually have a sizeable correction, every bullish year has 1. But markets tend to extend out moves against the general consensus far longer than how deep the countertrend pockets are and the overwhelming consensus amongst market professionals is that we are due for a top.

Polls and sentiment data may indicate that people are too bullish, but I do not trust those info because polls are opinions not objective action. Rydex bull funds may be excess bullish, but retail investor is very insignificant part of this market. We enter a seasonally strong period in April. I am going with the classic bid up and sell in May pattern. Just my 2 cents.

Good luck everyone.

Silver:

Cobra wrote:NDX Hedgers are betting heavily on the downside.

Cobra, this is a nice chart... do you have anything on the SPX to see how it compares???

Cobra wrote:NDX Hedgers are betting heavily on the downside.

there are less and less bloggers and it seems like bears have given up. so are we there yet, Cobra, almost? I mean correction
Some has abandoned their sites and have not updated their charts for wks now. what a sad sights

TraderGirl wrote:

Cobra wrote:NDX Hedgers are betting heavily on the downside.

Cobra, this is a nice chart... do you have anything on the SPX to see how it compares???

$NYA moves almost the same as $SPX so no need to see what it looks like with SPX, not much differences.

Hello weekenders.
Who has been tracking SPY quite closely these days? See pink and orange lines behind SPY.
Hint: it ain’t AAPL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETvFnLg0hXU

Lazy man’s view of Bullish Percent P&Fs, showing energy as the weakest (actually gold miners are weakest, but are not on this chart).

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” [Albert Einstein]

Percent of stocks that are still above their 50ma.
As u can c, in the past this sell signal (when it dropped below the 80 signal line)
accompanied tiny pullbacks (blue circles), and sometimes larger corrections or a crash (red circles).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fv ... K8JlTlhnjw

Al_Dente wrote:Percent of stocks that are still above their 50ma.
As u can c, in the past this sell signal (when it dropped below the 80 signal line)
accompanied tiny pullbacks (blue circles), and sometimes larger corrections or a crash (red circles).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fv ... K8JlTlhnjw

324above50.png

Nice chart, thanks. I like it.

Cobra wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:

Cobra wrote:NDX Hedgers are betting heavily on the downside.

Cobra, this is a nice chart... do you have anything on the SPX to see how it compares???

$NYA moves almost the same as $SPX so no need to see what it looks like with SPX, not much differences.

Thanks Cobra!!

Cobra wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Percent of stocks that are still above their 50ma.
As u can c, in the past this sell signal (when it dropped below the 80 signal line)
accompanied tiny pullbacks (blue circles), and sometimes larger corrections or a crash (red circles).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fv ... K8JlTlhnjw

324above50.png

Nice chart, thanks. I like it.

Me too!!!

Latest Spy block trades:
Last (2) days net: +1.0B
March to-date net: +1.8B
February net: -10.8B

Ok guys, I thought we would possibly have a trough next week, but it may not come true.

If we are up on Monday, it may last to Thursday, which is the next turn date, and if we are down on Monday, then the market could most likely turn up on Thursday...

Potential plan for Dollar/Silver....

Buckethead wrote:My take is that we will eventually have a sizeable correction, every bullish year has 1. But markets tend to extend out moves against the general consensus far longer than how deep the countertrend pockets are and the overwhelming consensus amongst market professionals is that we are due for a top.

Polls and sentiment data may indicate that people are too bullish, but I do not trust those info because polls are opinions not objective action. Rydex bull funds may be excess bullish, but retail investor is very insignificant part of this market. We enter a seasonally strong period in April. I am going with the classic bid up and sell in May pattern. Just my 2 cents.

Good luck everyone.

I have felt the same way for the last six months but I'm not convinced anymore this market is going to correct.

Most will agree the major institutions are driving this market (not the retail trader). Unfortunately, these same institutions are flush with huge amounts of cash thanks to the FED (US tax payer). QE1/QE2 has pumped $1.600,000,000,000.000 trillion into the market. That's a lot of zero's.What else are they going to do with all the money provided them by Uncle Sam? Loan it to you? No way. There's no better place on the planet (with less Govmt regulation) to put this money to use than the US stock market. This market could easily continue going up for many more months without much correction.

With that said, and with the full understanding QE3 just around the corner, I would put my money long and expect to see some major all time high stock market records being set over the next few years. So,the market will continue higher for sure, the american dollar will have half the buying power of five years ago but most American consumers will be too dumb to even notice but that is another discussion.

Just a weekend opinion.