Cobra's Market View

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Kind of consolidation here, bias is up.

Flat open so likely it's just a range day.

ES daily. Squeezed between the EMA 20 and a key level of support/resistance. At the top of the previous bar.

ES 60 minutes. Moved up from S1. Now in a base for over 10 hours.

Bullish at the major resistance area. will follow $VIX closely today. for now no clue what the market wants to do.

SPY 15. Right at the previous close, and very flat since that close. Small pbar aimed at an earlier close.

ES five minutes. What goes down, must come up. Trying to move above the resistance level.

A good bye kiss or head back to no man's land.

ES five minutes. Playing games. Teaser at the key level.

Same story on my pivot.

ES five minutes. Careful with the whiplash.

Dow 30. About even on the Dow. Maybe slightly more green.

Alternatives.

SOYB. Time for a commodity. I already hold some of the ETF CORN. Will check out the ETF SOYB.

Rejection right at 50%

ES 60 minutes. No damage yet on the 60, as it is still in the same base/range. The bears are angry today, however. They are running.

The NYMO cycle remains down though I think the cycle low is in.
It popped above zero at the open this morning but has since slipped below.
The surge over the last few days is either a corrective move to the zero line or the start of a new up cycle.
Bulls need to get two closes above zero to confirm up.

Price appears to have completed its first test of the 200 MA.
Bulls want to hold the average and the January low.
Bears want a failure on the next test.
As the lower keltner band was tagged, bears have the bias ahead.

The middle keltner band lies above and may be a target for this move.
In a strange change, there have been few gaps made this year.
At the moment, there is just one above. The downdraft has closed a bunch of stranded down gaps from last year.

I am neutral holding short runners in SPX and R2K that are fully offset by equivalent longs.
We had a positive price divergence last week with price holding up while NYMO made lower lows.
This divergence inclined me to try a hedge for a bounce.
There was a down P-Bar lurking that I used to put on the hedges Friday.
My runners have breakeven stops, and I plan to put profit stops on the hedges soon.
I usually outsmart myself when I pull stunts like this, but it will pay this time around.

ES five minutes. Much volatility. "Let's be careful out there." -- Hill Street Blues

Bears need to see this buy dip fail, if so it could be a home run day for bears today and tomorrow.

2x top selling here or range day, bulls dip buy has not fail yet, so extreme counter trend only for now.