Cobra's Market View

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done every 24 hours, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks!

If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp, thanks!



Huge gap up but within yesterday's range, so not sure if the gap will be filled or not.

The Global ES is testing the channel top, the feeling is still missing at least a revisit to yesterday's low (either higher low or lower low). I'm not sure such a revisit would happen today or not though. Day trading point of view, since it's huge gap up, so I'm automatically in the bull's camp unless the market reverses right at the open. So revisit of yesterday's low or not, I really don't care, it's different time frame, it's the future, for trading, I don't care future, I only care what is exactly happening now...

gm Cobra,
I posted in market outlook. what you think of $AEX? stockcharts is from yesterday, but seems a lot of damage done?
thanks

SigmaEcho wrote:gm Cobra,
I posted in market outlook. what you think of $AEX? stockcharts is from yesterday, but seems a lot of damage done?
thanks

Treat it the same as SPX, only worse.

the open. funny, where's everyone? Now the market is down but no bears anymore?

Check 10:00 am... (I do hope my drawing of the ellipse is precise )

Cobra wrote:the open. funny, where's everyone? Now the market is down but no bears anymore?

Bears are bulls now, waiting for correction to short again
Now seriously, the up move from yesterday' low is one leg, i'm expecting a retest before going up. Or if we're going up the down move have more chances to produce a lower low. We'll see.

Cobra wrote:the open. funny, where's everyone? Now the market is down but no bears anymore?

good morning, Master Cobra.

tomsky wrote:

Cobra wrote:the open. funny, where's everyone? Now the market is down but no bears anymore?

Bears are bulls now, waiting for correction to short again

Dips go right to target -- sometimes a little more out of panic --- more often a little less due to the dip buyers front running the line. The target in this case was the trendline extending from the November low. According to my chart (which is not precise) we broke that line yesterday so, only natural that with two MDD days we get our pop back up and now the bulls get their turn to BUY BUY BUY and the bears must find a resistance line to hold.

All my readings yield that 1400ish must hold or else we're headed to new highs --- so i expect us to be at 1400 with haste.

I was hoping we drop some

Glad I hedged overnight..It paid off today..Lets see how it goes.

stucap wrote: Dips go right to target -- sometimes a little more out of panic --- more often a little less due to the dip buyers front running the line. The target in this case was the trendline extending from the November low. According to my chart (which is not precise) we broke that line yesterday so, only natural that with two MDD days we get our pop back up and now the bulls get their turn to BUY BUY BUY and the bears must find a resistance line to hold.

All my readings yield that 1400ish must hold or else we're headed to new highs --- so i expect us to be at 1400 with haste.

The green line is my maximum target for 4 wave. If will break it the down move will look corrective and overlapped which implies more upside (higher high). Edit: I've uploaded the chart now

tomsky wrote:

stucap wrote: Dips go right to target -- sometimes a little more out of panic --- more often a little less due to the dip buyers front running the line. The target in this case was the trendline extending from the November low. According to my chart (which is not precise) we broke that line yesterday so, only natural that with two MDD days we get our pop back up and now the bulls get their turn to BUY BUY BUY and the bears must find a resistance line to hold.

All my readings yield that 1400ish must hold or else we're headed to new highs --- so i expect us to be at 1400 with haste.

The green line is my maximum target for 4 wave. If will break it the down move will look corrective and overlapped which implies more upside (higher high).

20120411 indu.png

Edit: I've uploaded the chart now

seems reasonable -- 50% retrace correlates to 1390ish SPX --- my 1400 is more like a 61.8% retrace.

AAPL weak.

The Dorsey Wright NYSEBP turned to O's last night.The trend now is dn until
we get a 6% up move.This can take awhile.11 of the 15 catagories are in O's so it looks bearish.Lots of times we do get a good pop up of 2%+/- then dn.So now lets wait and see what happens.

sold 131/133 puts to fund buying 139/141 puts yesterday afternoon. may sell some calls to fund buying some more puts today...

i guess that technically makes me a bear.

Per DeMark (for today) Long at H1 or L2 for a swing/day trade.

Cobra, I see you have both twitter and stocktwits accounts. You can link them and whichever you post from, it would be posted in the other, too.

Posting from twitter: any tweets with $ would be tweeted in stocktwits as well. (e.g. $SPY, $$, etc)

Posting from stocktwits: all tweets would be tweeted in twitter.

I'd think you get more exposure in stocktwits than twitter. Just my 2 cents.

Thanks Cobra, took a chance on the probability analysis in your reports last 2 nights and more than paid for my subscriptions on the gap.

The entire up move from October's low seems incomplete. The way i see it is we need a retest of yesterday's low to kick off wave 4 red and then 5 to finish C blue and the up to finish 5 green.
But only TWT can enlighten us if the waves are correct.

the big picture. no comment. wait and see.